September 2006 has ended with practically all the majors at the exact same level as where they started. An exception exists with a drop in the AUD-USD. Although it probably had nothing to do with Steve Irwin’s untimely passing, I find it note worthy, as Steve was truly an asset to Australia. He will be missed.

Benign Economic Events - IMF G7

The story of September was the JPY’s perceived weakness, the consolidation on the EUR-USD, and the benign effects of the scheduled economic events that passed. The IMF G7 early in the month barely produced a ripple. Or did it??? The most impressive announcement from the Singapore conference that sticks in my brain was that the powers that be want a controlled and stable devaluation of the US Dollar. Makes cents to me! But intervention rarely holds for long.

FOMC and Interest Rates - October can be Spooky!

The never ending question on US Interest rates continues. There seems to be a more volatile debate for October’s FOMC announcement. (Mark your calendar for the 24th now!) If there truly is artificial support for the USD, then the longer we artificially consolidate - the more violent you can expect  the breakout to be! Conduct yourself accordingly, and keep your eyes on the daily, weekly, and even monthly charts.

Focus on: USD-JPY

As we head into October, the USD-JPY seems to be forming an Ascending Triangle on the Daily charts with support and resistance at the current levels of 118. This goes back to November of 2005 with lots of dancing above and below 118 right up till now. Resistance is just above 119 and Support is around 117.50 a break below support could take the USD-JPY to 116.50. A completion of the Triangle pattern to the downside should see support around 114.50. I do not see upside potential too far past 120.

Stay tuned for an announcement regarding my live Webcasts on FX Street. To keep posted on all updates to this blog and scheduled live events you can subscribe by the links provided.

Good Trading from "1st on Forex" - Jerry Furst

Greetings,

Welcome to my Blog "1st on Forex". My name is Jerry Furst and I bring to you a wide range of experience from the trading world. I left my corportae job and the commute behind. I founded Investors Education Network while trading equity options full time after I found out that there was a whole bunch more I needed to learn about trading. I also found trading to be a very solo experience that needed to be shared with like minded people. I welcome your comments, questions, and feedback.   Consider me your trading buddy!

This blog will be a joint collaboration between you, me and the markets. The interaction of all three will make it what it will become. I know the markets will provide the twists, turns, and volatility to keep these spaces worth coming back to. The markets are always exciting - even if some of you are suffering through some consolidation at the current time. The Forex markets do not stay flat for too long. This is an excellent time to range trade and anticipate the the next trend.

Stay tuned here as I bring to you the ramblings of a trader, educator, event coordinator, news junky, technical analyst, and - well… if it has anything to do with trading the markets and the people and things that make it happen - you will see it commented on here.

Becaue the currency markets drive the worlds other markets you can expect discussions on things like, the DOW approaching its all time high. Gold do we have a buying opportunity? Commodities - is the bull run over? Now some of you are saying - whats that got to do with Forex - Well, the Forex markets have an effect and are affected by these events and the other markets. It’s all connected! As a trader you ignore these factors at your peril!

But not to worry - we will have indepth analysis on the currency pairs. As an example lets get started with my observations from Sunday evening September 25th, 2006.

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Focus is on: EUR/USD

Pre-Market Open Sunday September 24

Fibonacci Analysis on the Daily charts show Sideways Consolidation - Some see problems, others see opportunities as there is a cluster at the current price of 1.2780-1.2800.

Price has been trading above and below this cluster in a range going back to late July.

Further analysis shows Support around 1.2700-1.2660 and Resistance at 1.2860-1.2900 This provides opportunity evenly spread approximately 100 pips above and below.

I’ll be flying by indicators for now - watching for them to tell me when to pull the trigger. Existing Home Sales at 10am EST will likely be presenting a good opportunity for an easy 40 pips or so.

End of the Beginning:  So now you have a small taste of what’s in store here.  Again, I welcome your comments, questions, and feedback. Especially now - I want your suggestions. I will respond to all feedback, but be patient. Be the 1st to respond to Furst… on "1st on Forex" and send this link to your friends (Try the TrackBack feature) and let them know you’ve found a new trading pal!

This has been my 1st post on "1st on Forex" - from Jerry Furst - Good Trading to All !