Symmetrical Triangle Highlights - Risk vs Reward

The Dollar edged higher Thursday after  Bernanke’s hawkish testimony on Wednesday and the strong US GDP report Thursday. Friday brings the week and the month to a close with more news out of the US scheduled later today. 

(Click to Enlarge Chart)

Note: this is not a recommendation to trade - anything can happen - but this is a great example of Technical and Fundamental Analysis at Work.

Who is Jerry Furst? As Sr. Analyst, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN), Mr. Furst is also a mentor and trading coach to select clients. Tune in to see his live Webcasts on FX Street.com

Jerry can be reached at JerryB1st@ienweb(dot)com or visit www.InvestorsEducationNetwork.com.

This Chart Says It All

Click on Chart to Enlarge

The Dallas News has a great web site dedicated to the European Union

Note: this is not a recommendation to trade - anything can happen - but this is a great example of Technical and Fundamental Analysis at Work.

Who is Jerry Furst? As Sr. Analyst, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN), Mr. Furst is also a mentor and trading coach to select clients. Tune in to see his live Webcasts on FX Street.com

Jerry can be reached at JerryB1st@ienweb(dot)com or visit www.InvestorsEducationNetwork.com.

Temporary Rise In Dollar During Uncertainty? 

The markets hate uncertainty and as Quebeckers go to the polls on Monday. While the USD is atregthening against the CAD for the third day, Bloomberg reports separatists are gaining strength in their quest to preserve what is French. 

Polls Say Election is Close Call on French Seperatists 

Traders should watch this trading opportunity closely as the Loonie could live up to its name if the national government "Cracks Up"

The Charts show a good entry point for either outcome (Click to Enlarge)

Note: this is not a recommendation to trade - anything can happen - but this is a great example of Technical and Fundamental Analysis at Work.

Who is Jerry Furst? As Sr. Analyst, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN), Mr. Furst is also a mentor and trading coach to select clients. Tune in to see his live Webcasts on FX Street.com

Jerry can be reached at JerryB1st@ienweb(dot)com or visit www.InvestorsEducationNetwork.com.

Some Analysts see Possible Interest Rate Cut Ahead

Bernanke and company had no surprises - the US equity Markets rallied - but the Currency Markets punished the US Dollar as  USD-GBP tested the 1.9700 range and the EUR-USD pushed above 1.34 briefly.

Fundamentally this should be no surprise - The US Treasury Secretary has stated that a lower dollar is not a bad thing and so we may be poised for testing new lows on the dollar unless a major new dynamic enters the formula.

USD-JPY Shows Symmetrical Triangle After H&S Fails (click on chart)

Note: this is not a recommendation to trade - anything can happen - but this is a great example of Technical Analysis at Work.

Who is Jerry Furst? As Sr. Analyst, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN), Mr. Furst is also a mentor and trading coach to select clients. Tune in to see his live Webcasts on FX Street.com

Jerry can be reached at JerryB1st@ienweb(dot)com or visit www.InvestorsEducationNetwork.com.

Last week the focus of the Financial World seemed to concentrate on the Subprime Lending situation in the US. US legislators started warming up their fickle finger of blame, and started pointing it at the Federal Reserve for being too easy with low interest rates. A certain Senator from NY even started talking about a "Rescue Plan" for …. the Banks! Nevermind the little guy that will probably see their life savings washed away due to predatory lending practices. 

The Week Ahead

We have a ton of Housing data coming out this week - Monday, Tuesday, and Friday - and the mother of all announcements the FOMC US Interest Rate Announcement with Bernanke and team comes this Wednesday. Even though most analysts believe their will be no increase at this time. 

What’s the Fed Supposed to Do?

The arguments for rising rates to stem inflation and lowering rates to prevent the economy from falling into recession will be something to watch for in the text of the announcemnet expected at 2:15pm EST.

Head and Shoulder pattern on the USD-JPY

Well I see a Head and Shoulders Setup on the USD-JPY (Click on the chart to enlarge)

Note: this is not a recommendation to trade - anything can happen - but this is a great example of a Head and Shoulder setup.

Who is Jerry Furst? As Sr. Analyst, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN), Mr. Furst is also a mentor and trading coach to select clients. Tune in to see his live Webcasts on FX Street.com

Jerry can be reached at JerryB1st@ienweb(dot)com or visit www.InvestorsEducationNetwork.com.

Looking at the Chart below (Click to Enlarge) - We have Classic example of consolidation range on the GBP-USD that spans approx 250 pips. This was defined by the March 5th drop of 267 pips. Price has been in the shadow of that down bar for 8 trading days.

Once Support or resistance is broken, we may fall into the next 250pip bracket higher or lower.

Support at approx 1.9185 if broken could test lows below 1.900 - resistance at 1.9440, if broken could see prices back around 1.9700 - Now that’s a range of 700 pips.

Note: this is not a recommendation to trade - anything can happen - but this is a great example of a consolidation range.

Who is Jerry Furst? As Sr. Analyst, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN), Mr. Furst is also a mentor and trading coach to select clients. Tune in to see his live Webcasts on FX Street.com

Jerry can be reached at JerryB1st@ienweb(dot)com or visit www.InvestorsEducationNetwork.com.

Does Anybody Really Know What Time It Is?

The US Congress may have set the stage for a mini "Y2K" type disaster as most companies have been caught off guard as to the severity that a one hour change in Daylight Savings Time may cause. Programmers and High Tech workers were working feverishly over the weekend to insure that there would be no problems. Many computers will be off by one hour tomorrow morning setting the stage for unforeseen "issues" and "challenges" for traders, programmers and anyone else depending on technology!

If it is not broke, don’t fix it - To Err is Human, But to Really Screw Up…..

As a former Sr. Analyst for IBM and consultant and trainer to fortune 100 companies like Office Depot, Sports Authority - I know first hand the tedious work that must be done to fix this problem. The irony is that it is the tinkering with the software that may cause a bigger problem than the problem itself! It is the proverbial opening of the can of worms…. Hopefully not Pandora’s Box!

Do You Have A Backup Plan?

As a computer geek turned trader - I bring a lot of left and right brain activity to this Blog. In a Nut Shell - Print Your Statements on a regular basis along with storing your backups on a portable external backup drive - You may thank me for this advice when you have a "red marble" day. (my email address is below :>)

The Long Term Charts Look Dangerous!

Midnight has just passed on the east coast and so far all is quiet on the charts. But as Bloomberg and CNBC drone on about Alan Greenspan speaking this week and the inverted yield curve. I am looking at Inverted Head and Shoulders and Triangle Patterns ready to break!

Chart 1 shows The EUR-USD Monthly Chart Looks Extremely Dangerous with an Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern ready to Crack! I don’t dare print the price target if this pattern completes! (Click to Enlarge Chart)

Chart 2 shows The EUR-GBP has a Triangle Pattern on the Weekly Chart that looks ominous as well. (Click to Enlarge Chart)

Who is Jerry Furst? As Sr. Analyst, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN), Mr. Furst is also a mentor and trading coach to select clients. Tune in to see his live webcasts on FX Street.com

Jerry can be reached at JerryB1st@ienweb(dot)com or visit www.InvestorsEducationNetwork.com.

A Few weeks after the G7 stated that they “support the orderly adjustment of global imbalances” The Yen for the Yen is quiet obvious. I had been commenting for a few weeks to people how all the Carry Traders were bound to eventually run for the exits once the pain and the stops began to get triggered.

GBP-JPY - Classic Stair Step Pattern on 15 Minute Chart (Click to Enlarge)

Who is Jerry Furst? President of Investors Education Network (IEN), Mr. Furst is also a mentor and trading coach to select clients.

Jerry can be reached at JerryB1st@ienweb(dot)com or visit www.InvestorsEducationNetwork.com.

Greenspan Speaks Again! - (Click on Chart)

Can you guess the Moving Average?

I am amazed at how many “pundits” are blaming Alan Greenspan for the recent market correction. It’s like giving Bill Clinton credit for inflating the tech bubble of the late 1990’s (as he was taking care of business in the oval office and Air Force One!) Well wait, he did hire the other “Al Green” that created the internet that created the boom before the bust, before Y2K.

Spouting Blame  vs. Taking Responsibility

A sure sign of a “rookie” is when they “blame” someone else for their bad trading. Whether it’s the “Market Makers”, the Dealing Desk, China, the Carry Trade, the Housing Market, Program Trading, let a lone a single person “Greenspan”.  Rumor has it he shops at the supermarket in Boca Raton not far from my home. I’d love to have a moment to ask him what it’s like to have such power! But Seriously - It’s Amusing (is that an oxymoron) to see the parade of “pundits” as they point the finger of blame on a long awaited and anticipated retracement.

And then there are the “Successful Veterans” - calm, cautious, and careful - as they see opportunity in the volatility.  They certainly do not see fear - except in the eyes of their victims being interviewed by Maria. I have to admit, it is entertaining.

I know of a Veteran trader in the futures markets, he made over 400 Dow eMini points Tuesday - “A New Personal Best” As the equity markets finally took a long overdue and expected retracement - I do not hear him thanking Alan Greenspan.

Stolen Picasso Found (Click on Image )

It’s a Picasso!  - Happy Trading!

I’m taking the rest of the week and next week off with my trades on auto pilot! However, G-d (and FX Street) willing - I will be broadcasting my  “1st on Forex - The Week Ahead” webinar here on FX Street - Monday at 7am EST - Be sure to tune in…Register Here - Wait - I’m not on the line up next week….

Traders - Remember to have some fun this weekend!

Who is Jerry Furst? President of Investors Education Network (IEN), Mr. Furst is also a mentor and trading coach to select clients.

Jerry can be reached at JerryB1st@ienweb(dot)com or visit www.InvestorsEducationNetwork.com.