Volatility was muted as GDP and Unemployment numbers came in with no surprises and barely fazed the currencies.

GBP-USD 1 Minute Chart 11am EDT

Triangle Patterns Can Work on Any Time Frame

US Oil inventories came in unexpectedly lower than expected and their was a slight pop on the charts - for about 5 minutes

FDIC: “Take your Lumps!”

CNBC’s Steve Leesman interviewed a representative of the FDIC and asked about the health of the Federal Bank Insurance organization.

There seemed to be yet another warning being issued - similar to Bernanke’s comments about possible  Regional Bank failures - that given the “continued uncertainty” the FDIC would like to see higher than the “normal” minimum on bank reserves.

Other comments were that there are still some ways to go in the troubled housing market and they would like to see the foreclosures level off and get the houses selling - even if some people and institutions have to “take their lumps”

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Jerry Furst  is an active trader, educator, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN),He is available as a Mentor and Trading Coach to Select Clients Click Here for a Free Self Evaluation Survey.

We Interrupt This Broadcast  -   Ohh, Nevermind..

Last Friday May 23, 2008  - According to Marco Sibaja of the Associated press, 12 nations of South America signed an agreement to form a “Continental Parliament” fashioned after the European Union.  The “Union of South American Nations” or abbreviated is UNASUR has been born. A Google search was needed to reassure myself that the news was “official” and sure enough Wikipedia has the facts laid out.

New Currency On The Way

As a currency trader my interest was piqued as I learned on Wikipedia that this has been in the planning stages for a long time. The presidents of the seven founding countries (Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Ecuador, Paraguay, Venezuela and Uruguay) have already officially launched the South American Bank in Buenos Aires in December 2007.

“We are here to make Simón Bolívar’s dream real. [...] Sooner, rather than later, we shall have a single currency, a single passport… Sooner, rather than later, we shall have a parliament with directly elected representatives for this new nation that we are creating today. “

—Former Peruvian President Alejandro Toledo, 8 December 2004. Source: Wikipedia

I watched patiently for any major news organization to pick up on any of this, especially the Sunday major network shows  - But all we get is Barrack and Hillary 7×24…  It seems to me that this is like the proverbial “tree falling in the Brazilian Rain Forest” - Is this not major news? Is anybody out there?  There’s tress falling everywhere!  (and I think the Chinese want to make chop sticks out of them!)  

Back to Our Regular Programming - and the charts,,,,

GBP-USD Daily Chart above - Resistance is Futile (click to enlarge)

GBP-USD 30 Min Chart above - Sterling in the Box! (click to enlarge)

Look carefully and you can see the failed inverse Head and Shoulder that completed quickly.

Good trading to ya’all.. down south… Happy Pippin…

Jerry Furst  is an active trader, educator, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN),He is available as a Mentor and Trading Coach to Select Clients Click Here for a Free Self Evaluation Survey.

Monday: US and UK Holiday - Beware of Low Volume Volatility Moves as Currency Markets Know No Holidays!

This Weeks Calendar

Below is a Consolidated Summary of Scheduled News Events that I am watching. for the “Week Ahead”  Note: All times are listed in US Eastern Time Zone and there are other scheduled events that I may not have listed.

Jerry’s Watch List - US News May 26 - 30 (in Brief)

Jerry’s Watch List - International News May 26 - 30 (in Brief)

Jerry Furst  is an active trader, educator, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN),He is available as a Mentor and Trading Coach to Select Clients Click Here for a Free Self Evaluation Survey.

USD-CAD 30 Min Chart

Dollar Breaks Out of the Loonie Box in Final Minutes of Week (Click to Enlarge)

The last few posts have documented a text book example of a consolidation “box”.  In the final minutes of the New York session the US Dollar made a break out of the box - and now is on higher ground - for now. The question is: What will happen when the markets re-open on Sunday - especially with the Memorial Day Holiday in the US? Stay Tuned….

CAD-USD 60 Min May 23, 2008 12 Noon EDT (Click to enlarge)

Reacting to US Home Sales -  The chart above as of 12 Noon shows the market moving from the previous post about an hour ago! Resistance is now being tested to the upside as I type. The 10 am 60 minute bar - (possibly reacting to US existing home sales) opened at the low end of 0.9834 and topping out at 0.9877 - closing near the top at 0.9872. That’s 43 pips - which is approximately  the same width of the box.

The Loonie in the Box  - 1 Day Later

CAD-USD 60 Min May 23, 2008 10:30am EDT (Click to enlarge)

The CAD-USD pair 24 hours later is still going sideways in the box. The chart above overlays the previous posted with current price at time of posting. The current range of 0.9878-0.9825is being tested to the up side with the 10 am 60 minute bar opening at the low end of 0.9834 and topping out at 0.9877 - closing near the top at 0.9872. That’s 43 pips - which is approximately  the same width of the box.

Aussie Doing the 2-Step - Back up

AUD-USD 2 Hour Chart May 23 2008 10:30am EDT (Click to enlarge)

The Stair step that I posted May 21st around midnight took the step down - and in the process broke the trend channel. Price has since bottomed out at 0.9542 and is reversing to the upside. As of this posting price has exceeded the 75% retracement and stepped back up into the previous range above resistance.

Jerry Furst  is an active trader, educator, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN),He is available as a Mentor and Trading Coach to Select Clients Click Here for a Free Survey and 15 or 30 Minute Consultation.

(Click on Chart to Enlarge)

Symmetrical Box Pattern

The above chart shows the USD-CAD 60 min chart in a nice consolidation range of 40  pips. This box pattern is split symmetrically with 20 pip ranges each. There is also an upper and lower buffer range of a few pips for extra measure.

The Canadian Dollar continues to strengthen as hints that the Bank of Canada may be poised to hold or start raising rates. This is in addition to Canada having oil reserves in the form of shale - ready to be cracked - as Oil and other commodities continue to spike.

Jerry Furst  is an active trader, educator, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN),He is available as a Mentor and Trading Coach to Select Clients Click Here for a Free Survey and 15 or 30 Minute Consultation.

FOMC Minutes Released - Fed Cuts Growth Targets - Worries About Inflation

What’s a Central Bank to do? Depending on who you read and listen to - there is either reason for concern - or “the worst is over”.  The messages being telegraphed from the likes of Trichet and Bernanke as well as the BOE and even the Australian and New Zealand banks all are extremely concerned about inflation - and slower growth.

Going Up - Down Under — Aussie vs. US Dollar

Ascending Trend Channel

The 2 hour chart (above) shows the AUD-USD gaining continued strength with a well formed ascending channel.

60 Minute Stair Step Pattern

The same AUD-USD pair  but the 60 minutes chart (above) shows a really nice “Stair Step” pattern. Of course, the question is - which step is next? 

Jerry Furst  is an active trader, educator, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN),He is available as a Mentor and Trading Coach to Select Clients Click Here for a Free Survey and 15 or 30 Minute Consultation.

This Week

Below is a Consolidated Summary of Scheduled News Events that I am watching. for the “Week Ahead”  Note: All times are listed in US Eastern Time Zone and there are other scheduled events that I may not have listed.

Jerry’s Watch List - US News for May 19 - 23 (in Brief)

Jerry’s Watch List - International News for May 19 - 23 (in Brief)

Jerry Furst  is an active trader, educator, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN),He is available as a Mentor and Trading Coach to Select Clients Click Here for a Free Survey and 15 or 30 Minute Consultation.

Do You Have a Checklist?

Send me your routine by posting comments and next weekend I will post mine…

Back Up Your Data Now!

Everything in Life is Temporary - especially electrical components! Not that long ago my main trading systems Hard Drive gave me a “”Black Screen of Death” that’s the one with the message that says, ” Disk Drive Read Write Error - Press Control Alt Delete”. This message does not say have a nice day at the end…

Redundancies - and Planning for Failures

My background in computers is extensive as I began my career at IBM in Boca Raton in 1980 - two months before the IBM personal computer was placed on the market. Bill Gates would walk the halls in his K-Mart clothes - probably mumbling how lucky he was that IBM was fighting for it’s life in a anti-trust lawsuit. But that’s another story - Anyway, my technical background has me already prepared for computer breakdowns. I have three computers at the ready at all times. Two of them on as I am trading with my trading platform and charting services configured. So I had no Fear or Panic. Trading goes on - However….

Never Trade When You Are Distracted!

I closed all my trades and began the process of determining just how bad the situation is and when I realized my drive was corrupted - I promptly removed it, and installed a 100G drive that I had bought about 6 months ago and began my rebuilding process.

Do You Have Your Restore Disks?

Once upon a time when you bought a computer you received a nice thick manual telling you how to use and maintain your machine, along with all the software to reload your system to factory specifications. Today, many machines do not come with these resources. If you have them - find them now and put them in a safe place where you will remember where they are. If you do not have your restore disks -Your computer manufacturer may have provided a way for you to create them with one or two DVD’s - or you may need to call your manufacturer and request them to be sent. (Don’t be surprised if they want to charge you some $$$$ and even worse - be prepared that they may not send you the right disks.)

Out with the Old?

If you are not technically savvy you have a few options. You may consider buying a new system, especially if your current system was over 3 years old and getting slow. If you do this - consider making your old machine a secondary -or even a third backup system. Consider stopping into your local computer store (not necessarily the big nationwide chain) and get to know your local computer geek - they may become your best friend when you need them!

Bottom Line - Back Up Your Data and Keep Your Cool

Today you can buy an external Hard Drive that attached via USB for less than $50 US. This type of drive helped me in the past during a prior Hard Drive failure when I was able to boot my machine into “safe mode” and transfer my important recent documents and files - before proceeding with repairs and overhauls to my system. Having a regular routine is part of being a professional - whether it is trading or anything else! Backing up your data is a routine I encourage each and everyone of you to start doing - TODAY!

Jerry Furst is an active trader, educator, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN), he is also a mentor and trading coach to select clients. And occasionally a computer geek!