Non Farm Payroll On Thursday Coincides with Trichet’s Interest Rate Announcement.

Below is a Consolidated Summary of Scheduled News Events that I am watching. for the “Week Ahead”  Note: All times are listed in US Eastern Time Zone and there are other scheduled events that I may not have listed.

Jerry’s US News Watch for - June 30 - July 4

Jerry’s International News Watch for - June 30 - July 4

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Jerry Furst  is an active trader, educator, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN),He is available as a Mentor and Trading Coach to Select Clients Click Here for a Free Self Evaluation Survey.

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The Daily Chart of the US Dollar - Swiss Franc

The Dollar is Losing Ground Again - The Chart Above (click to enlarge) shows a nice Consolidation Range that goes back to Early May when the pair was trading at approximately 1.0600. That level has been Resistance as the 1.0200 level has held Support. The chart above shows the 25% and 50% retracements are holding the upper and lower extremes of this range. The 38.2% Retracement is symmetrically splitting the range in half. At the current time of this post - the Dollar is testing the support level.

CBOE- VIX - Volatility Index - June 26, 2008 Close

The VIX  - Threatening a Spike ???

A surprise rate increase by the Fed would have been a boost of confidence for the dollar and Bernanke. A day after the FOMC meeting,  Oil and Gold Spiked as the Dow Dropped 358 and the Nasdaq went down 80. The Volatility Index - otherwise known as the “fear indicator” is looking to break above the current 38.2 Fibonacci resistance level of 24.

Friday’s News

Over night the UK is reporting GDP at 4:30 EDT and the Euro Zone will report on Consumer Confidence at 5:00. The US will report on Personal Income and Spending at 8:30am and at 10am Consumer Sentiment should set the stage for Trichet to talk at 12;30 EDT to either slaughter the dollar with continued threats of a rate hike - or - If he wants stable currencies - he might state that the status quo is good enough for now.

But then again - Be prepared - as anything might spook the markets at this time….

Jerry Furst  is an active trader, educator, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN),He is available as a Mentor and Trading Coach to Select Clients Click Here for a Free Self Evaluation Survey.

Currencies barely phased by inaction

What Happened to the Strong US Dollar Policy?

So the Fed did what was predicted - left rates steady and no real hint of propping up the US Dollar. This raises the main issue. Will the Fed and the others back up what they mean when they say they support policy of a strong US currency. The sooner they realize that:

It’s All About the Money

Oil is transacted in US Dollars, and the cheaper US Dollars become the more expensive Oil becomes. I fail to see how there is any debate about this.

Next Up - US GDP Report

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Jerry Furst  is an active trader, educator, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN),He is available as a Mentor and Trading Coach to Select Clients Click Here for a Free Self Evaluation Survey.

Below is a Consolidated Summary of Scheduled News Events that I am watching. for the “Week Ahead”  Note: All times are listed in US Eastern Time Zone and there are other scheduled events that I may not have listed.

Jerry’s US News Watch for - June 23- 27

Jerry’s International News Watch for - June 23- 27

*** Live Market Coverage and Analysis Webinars ***

“1st on Forex” The Week Ahead Every Monday at 12 Noon EDT - Click Here

Special Webinar - Live Coverage of the FOMC Interest Rate Announcement  on Wednesday June 25th begins at 1:30 EDT - Click Here

Jerry Furst  is an active trader, educator, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN),He is available as a Mentor and Trading Coach to Select Clients Click Here for a Free Self Evaluation Survey.

Heeeees Baaaaack…..What’s that Sucking Sound?

I encourage people to forward the link to Ross Perot’s web site to all concerned - http://perotcharts.com/

From the newly launched Ross Perot Web Site: “The American people must wake up and face the reality that promises made in the past will soon bankrupt this nation. These problems are explained in an easy-to-understand chart presentation“.

Currency Without a Nation 

Fundamentally - Political uncertainty can undermine a nations currency. The Euro is in a unique and interesting situation that may cause some currency volatility as the European Union itself is being reopened to debate.

Will the Euro stay in the current consolidation range of 1.53 -1.60, or fall back into the 1.43-1.50 range?

Euro Daily Chart - June 18, 2008

Lower Highs as Support is Getting Closer - (Click to Enlarge Chart)

Interest Rates vs European Unity - Which is Stronger?

With Trichet’s reputation as being quite clear that their will be a .25 rate increase in the next 30 days - the question will focus on whether all the jawboning coming from the US will result in a FOMC increase later this month. If there is no rate increase from Bernanke - there may be a credibility and transparency crisis over just what the definition of a “Strong US Dollar Policy” means.

EU: Concept is in Question - Focus on Brussels

So which factor or variable  will trump the current currency situation? The European Union has been moving along for several decades as if it will just happen. Last weeks vote in Ireland on the Lisbon Treaty puts the “concept in question”. On Thursday European Union leaders will gather to tackle the issue of what to do with a treaty that has been defeated every time it has been put up for referendum.

Don’t Blame it on the Irish

The French and Dutch themselves have said “No” to this idea of giving up national sovereignty long before last weeks vote in Ireland. The fact is that the creation of a European Nation, patterned after the United States formation in 1776, is going to be a hard sell for countries with proud histories going back many generations.

Not Just a EU Issue

Currencies are not just facing the European Issue. Canadians should also take note about tampering with the status quo, as they came close to breaking in two not that long ago just over the issue of language. The United States is facing a historic election process of it’s own, while struggling with external and internal issues galore.

Snails Anyone?

Enabling (or forcing) Europeans to pay with the same currency will not automatically make it easy to order off the same menu!  People trusting in the waiter to tell us what we are eating because we can not read the menu is one thing. Covering insects in chocolate and frog legs in garlic makes it enticing. Call it a delicacy and the elite will part with huge sums for fungus arranged on a pretty plate.

Some commoners  may argue quite forcefully that they do not like eating snails - and would rather just eat in places that seem familiar, with menus they can read. The meeting in Brussels this week will be the first step in identifying the next step - But what’s for Dinner - and Who’s cooking???

Interesting Times - Indeed….

Jerry Furst  is an active trader, educator, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN),He is available as a Mentor and Trading Coach to Select Clients Click Here for a Free Self Evaluation Survey.

Below is a Consolidated Summary of Scheduled News Events that I am watching. for the “Week Ahead”  Note: All times are listed in US Eastern Time Zone and there are other scheduled events that I may not have listed.

Jerry’s US News Watch for -June 16 - 20

Jerry’s International News Watch for - June 16 - 20

Jerry Furst  is an active trader, educator, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN),He is available as a Mentor and Trading Coach to Select Clients Click Here for a Free Self Evaluation Survey.

Does No Mean No Problem?

Ok, so Ireland voted “No” to the Lisbon Treaty - So for now the EU Constitution is in question and will need to re-drafted. At first glance this would seem to be destabilizing for the Euro. However, this may actually  be “Euro Positive” as it will keep the status quo for now. This “No Vote” leaves Trichet and the European Central Bank with no official Parliament to answer to.  There is less oversight, and less political interference form member states. In fact Trichet is arguably the most recognized and powerful figure in the European Union - and he probably likes it that way!

                                  The Trichet Smile!

The Euro consolidated in a tight range - (Click to Enlarge Chart)

G-8: What if They All Raise Rates?

The Finance Ministers of the G8 meet in Japan this weekend and it will be interesting to see what the communiqué says. Recent grumblings about wanting to raise rates have been heard coming from the Bank of Canada and Japan. Will the US start doing something more than whistling.and start singing in tune with the ECB and the BOE?

All Together Now!

Perhaps there may be a consensus amongst all central banks to raise rates. This would effectively leave the differential unchanged - and maybe help make everyone happy.

Dollar Ready for a Rally?

The next FOMC announcement is scheduled for June 25th. Up until now talk has been cheap - Now It’s Show Time! Paulson, Bernanke, and Bush in recent days (and years) have been talking about their strong US Dollar policy. Signs of action and maybe even “intervention” to shore up the US Dollar will need to be seen soon - or the US will lose even more credibility.

Dennis Gartman “Smells” Something in the Air

The Gartman Letter on Thursday was quoted as saying, “We fear that Washington is preparing some material action that will shake the dollar bears from the positions with a “Old Testament-like” vengeance. Call it traders intuition or call it what you will but we “smell” something.”

Dennis has seen quite a few cycles - amongst other things - Perhaps it’s Iran that’s stinking up the place.

Live Market Coverage and Analysis Webinars

“1st on Forex” The Week Ahead Every Monday at 12 Noon EDT - Click Here

Special Webinar - Live Coverage of the FOMC Interest Rate Announcement  on Wednesday June 25th begins at 1:30 EDT - Click Here

Jerry Furst  is an active trader, educator, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN),He is available as a Mentor and Trading Coach to Select Clients Click Here for a Free Self Evaluation Survey.

Euro Poised at Support - Will It Hold?

Click to Enlarge Chart

No “Plan C” for the EU

So it all comes down to Ireland today as there is no “Plan C” to the Lisbon Treaty. But if the 27 nation bloc fails - it will not be because of one tiny Ireland. The Dutch and French said no to the previous treaty back in 2005. So this vote today is in fact “Plan B”.

10 Years After

The Financial Times today had an interesting editorial by Vaclav Klaus throwing water and shining a light on the “pressures” being faced10 years the creation of the European Central Bank. Initially the Euro zone was created as a “political project” that quickly turned into a economic project of the “common currency”. Now “the European Commission declares that the most important step towards improving the Eurozone’s prosperity is closer political union.”

Imagine…. There’s No Countries….

Klaus writes, The 1st 10 years of the EU saw no serious crisis - but that If Europe does not wake up - it could soon face hard times. “the European Commission has declared the most important steps towards improving the eurozone’s prosperity is closer political union.” and that, ” Member countries should give up their representations in international institutions and their right to express their own views.” 

Jerry Furst  is an active trader, educator, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN),He is available as a Mentor and Trading Coach to Select Clients Click Here for a Free Self Evaluation Survey.

This Weeks Calendar

Below is a Consolidated Summary of Scheduled News Events that I am watching. for the “Week Ahead”  Note: All times are listed in US Eastern Time Zone and there are other scheduled events that I may not have listed.

Jerry’s US News Watch for -June 9-13 

Jerry’s International News Watch for - June 2- 6

Jerry Furst  is an active trader, educator, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN),He is available as a Mentor and Trading Coach to Select Clients Click Here for a Free Self Evaluation Survey.