Bailout - Recovery  - Stabilzation Plan - REJECTED

The drama just got turned up a notch, as the US House voted 228 against vs. 205 for approval of the $700 Billion crisis. Stocks initially cratered over 700 points with more floor traders in the NYSE than has been seen in years.

US Dollar Stable after Initial Spike Down

The Euro spiked from 1.44 to 1.456

The Pound spiked from 1.8030 to 1.8160

The USD - Yen Spiked from 105.20 to 104.20

Systemic Problem shifts from the economy to politics

Repuplicans wasted no time in blaming House Leader Pelosi

No New Congressional Action Until Thursday at Earliest

Financial Markets in the Hands of Congress - Working Through the Night

 Tensions and Anxiety - Buying “Puts on SKY”

Talk of  “the end of ____________” run rampant - fill in the blank with whatever you want. Conspiracy Theorists are having the spotlight as Chicken Little is buying puts on sky! Either this will turn out to be the best bottom - capitulation in history  or it may be the end of history as we know it.  Sounds Dramatic - It Is.

More Bank Failures - Public Pissed - Professionals Pause 

As Washington Mutual crumbled into the arms of JP Morgan last week, Rumors are rampant that Wachovia Bank is on the edge. It’s amazing for me to talk to people from all walks of life and get their perspective on the current chapter of the financial crisis.

Three Perspectives

The general public:  is clueless, angry,  and scared -

The savvy and optimistic  financial investor:  believes that this is the best time to get in to the market and assures me that big money is sitting on the sidelines, starting to buy and waiting to buy more.

While others that have studied the deeper issues are looking at the current global picture and are telling me things that I prefer not to print.

Stay Tuned….

The 1st on Forex - Week Ahead - Summarized Calendar and Webinar

The Week Ahead - Summarized Scheduled News Events Calendar - Click Here

Jerry Furst  is an active trader, educator, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN), He is a Mentor and Trading Coach to Select Clients  Click Here for a Free Self Evaluation Survey.

Oil and the Dollar

12:30am (eastern US time) - consolidation seen on almost all majors since the NY close. Extremely tight range.  Dollar is ”assumed” to be under pressure, and I suspect that to be the primary cause of the historic spike in Oil yesterday.

Assumptions with the market can often be wrong - especially in the short term. What you expect to happen may be right - but the market may take the long road getting there.

Hedge Funds may be next major issue as redemption’s are reported to be increasing.

Do you think Paulson and Bernanke have addressed the Hedge Fund Issue within their $700 Billion request?  Bernanke and Paulson are scheduled to be addressing the Senate Banking Commitee Tuesday and Wednesday. Get your popcorn out, this should be good as Barney Frank gets ready to grill. It’s hard to feel sorry for them - they should have seen this coming - alot of people should have seen this mess coming…

All the Central Bankers and the IMF know full well the implications of the hedge funds, and the G-X meetings communiques would almost always have a standard mention addressing hedge funds as a potential “issue”. I sure hope they have a handle on it.

Safe Trading - or standing on the sidelines

Looking for a Bottom? -  Catching A Falling —— 

Last week is indicative of the type of headlines and panics worthy of a possible bottom. I’m usually looking for the scapegoat being handcuffed and paraded infront of  televsion cameras - last time I think it was Martha Stewart and some cable television guy …

However - this trader understands that most market bottoms usually come in with a thud, and I am just not convinced that we have heard it yet - although a 40 foot crater at the Pakistan Marriott is a telling sign - nothing for us to worry about…

Photo ops of the entire US Government represented by The Treasury, The Federal Reserve, The Speaker of the House, and the Senate - at the Presidents Invitation to…. spend 700 Billion to prop up a “house of cards”  that the president just recently learned was a bit bigger than his. 

Are We There Yet?  A Look at The Vix and S&P 500

Currency Markets Acting Well Technically - Hypoyhetically - Not Speaking

Currency Traders with their heads in the sand and only watching the charts may be doing quite nicely, as the trend and momentum trading is nothing less than excellent…. There are other issues that are currently hypothetical that I will not delve in to, but the possibility of extremely unexpected surprises are possible that might affect the currency markets and the way many of us trade…

The Week That Was and… Will Be?

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The 1st on Forex - Week Ahead - Summarized Calendar and Webinar

Click Here for Summarized Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead

Jerry Furst  is an active trader, educator, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN), He is a Mentor and Trading Coach to Select Clients  Click Here for a Free Self Evaluation Survey.

This Did Not Have To Happen - Questions that Need Answers

• All the Kings Horses…. 
• Nobody Trusts the Numbers 
• Creative Destruction  
• Margin Calls In Front of Redemptions 
• Gold’s Biggest One Day Percentage Gain Ever!  
• Is There a Leader in the House? Senate? Corner Office?  
• “They’ve lost faith in the Financials” – Art Cashin 
• Senator Shelby: We are going to have to have some hearings early next year 
• One Solution: “World Wide Interest Rate Cut” - - James Cramer  
• Resolution Trust - All Over Again  
• Fear in Solid Control  
• China Daily – World Needs New Currency  
• Lack of Regulation in Credit Default Market  
• Fiduciary Duty – Lack of Oversight  
• Too Big To Fail?  What About Bank of America  - Using Depositors Money !!
• Who’s Next?  

Headlines and Events - Getting Out Of Hand

The Market Carnage Continues…

It amazes me that even last week I heard some market analysts and pundits say that we were not in a recession! Long time readers of my blog know  that I called the portential for the worst time since the “Great Depression”  My Headline for Jan 22 was “Recession in Play - Depression on the Way?”

http://blogs.fxstreet.com/1stonforex/2008/01/22/recession-in-play-depression-on-the-way/

on January 24th I refrenced the Great Depression again

http://blogs.fxstreet.com/1stonforex/2008/01/24/bernanke-watches-futures-trader-watches-past-and-reminisces-of-the-shoe-shine-boy-cnbc-girls/

Gold was basically flat on Monday and I was pondering why - I called it Sunday Night - I hope some of you had come to the same conclusions.  I really find no joy in being right about things being so wrong - but the Rose Colored Windows are being shattered.

The Blame Game

Boiled Down It IS This: Regulatory oversight was and is missing. It looks like Political Cronies and underskilled Government Workers in the trenches over their head allowed the train to run off the tracks - this is beyond criminal as people are losing their jobs and life savings - around the globe!

What Would You Do With Interest Rates?

The Federal Reserve is scheduled to make an interest rate announcement tomorrow afternoon - and it comes at a time when Ben Bernanke is walking a tight rope of what to do - and say.  The Dow dropped over 500 points on Monday - the worst drop since the NYSE reopened after the attacks of September 11th.

Free Webinar - Tune in to Live Coverage of the FOMC Announcement visit www.ienweb.com to register

Unexpected Consequences - AIG Looks for Billions

AIG has been downgraded by Moody’s as one of the United States largest Insurance companies has been denied access to federal funds and not even access to a “bridge loan” that would give the company time to sell some assets - However, it is being reported that AIG is in need of $75 Billion

Oil Drops well below $100 - Dollar Hangs Tough

The US Dollar has given up some ground - but surprisingly not that much. It appears that the unwinding of several trades and the need for cash transactions may be holding the greenback up as a necessary instrument of trade. Oil positions are likely being liquidated and so all the selling is dropping the price.

Free Webinar - Tune in to Live Coverage of the FOMC Announcement visit www.ienweb.com to register

Systemic Risk at Hand

9pm Sunday and all is not well - The “systemic risk” that Hank Paulson and the US Treasury and Federal Reserve has been trying to ward off may be at hand. 

Reports are coming across fast and furious - one that there may be an emergency rate cut! Separating the rumors from fact is necessary - but until the dust settles - volatility seems to be certain as the official news is leaking out.  Panic is thick!

Watching the currencies - the dollar has dropped some - but things are tenuous. A flight to safety is making me think gold. Interesting how gold was driven so low last week.

Is This the Bottom?

Uncertainty in situations like this often signal a bottoming process that is fraught with twists and turns like a unknown roller coaster or a runaway train.  A calm head is needed to weather the storm.  Smart moves will be rewarded.

End of Investment Houses and Broker Dealers?

In a surprise move, Bank of America is rumored to have bought Merrill Lynch and John Thain may join Lehman Brothers employees in packing his desk.  It appears the two giants that will cease to exist come Monday. There is talk that this is the beginning of the end of the Big Investment Houses and Broker Dealers. 

Reading the wires - AIG is looking to sell Billions in Assets looking for support from Ben Bernanke and the Federal Reserve.

Unprecedented and Historic

CNBC is working with full staff Sunday night - same as when Bear Stearns was bailed out. Reports that the Treasury and FED are taking equities as collateral…

Market News International reporting that the FED is “Launching several initiatives to support the markets” and that the CFTC has made a rare statement late Sunday night that it is protecting Lehman’s commodity and futures customers and they are in touch with international regulators to help maintain stability of the markets.

The Wall Street Journal is saying the American Financial System is Being Shaken to it’s core”

Stay Tuned… Trade Safe… Trade Smart… or get out of the way…

 The Weekly IEN Webinar to get your Week Started 

Hurricane Ike Strikes Devastating Blow to US Gulf Coast

Estimates range from $8B to $18B in insurance losses - the human toll and the effect on Oil Refieries and drilling operations will become more appparent in the early part  of the week.  How this ripples through the financial markets will depend on how soon operations can come back on line.

Interest Rate Announcement This Tuesday - Webinar Coverage

Ben Bernanke and the Board of governors have a scheduled announcement at 2:15 this Tuesday. The Fed Funds Futures rates are pointing to a bias of interest rate easing by the end of the year. If this is true - this would be a catalyst to erase the US Dollars recent rally. The BOE and the ECB is under pressure to lower rates. I am anticipating some volatility on this announcement. Tune in to my free webinar hosted on FX STreet starting at 1:30pm Eastern time where I will do some fundamental and technical analysis before - during and after the announcement.

The 1st on Forex - Week Ahead - Calendar and Webinar

Below is a Consolidated Summary of Scheduled News Events that I am watching for the “Week Ahead”

Note: All times are listed in US Eastern Time Zone and there are other scheduled events that I may not have listed.

Jerry’s List: US Scheduled Events Watch for:Sept 8 -12

Jerry’s List: International Scheduled Events Watch for:Sept 8-12

 US Dollar Stays Steady Despite Bad News

The US Trade Deficit jumped almost 6% and Jobless claims were larger than expected, However the US Dollar stayed stable and gave up little ground. The Fed Funds Futures Rates are pointing to a possible interest rate cut which may cut the Dollars recent gains.

Oil Testing Support at $100

OPEC is threatening production cuts while Hurricane Ike is threatening the Gulf of Mexico’s Oil facilities and shoreline. One would expect the US Dollar to drop with such news - However, this is further proof that the correlation between the US Dollar and Oil is strong.

FX Market Update Video for September 11th 2008 with Fundamental and Technical Analysis

Too Big To Fall - Too Big To Fail?

This morning MSNBC re-broadcast the terror of September 11th as the world was changed by a small group of overgrown adolescents that were in desperate need of finding some virgins….. Meanwhile - CNBC barely mentioned the anniversary - but seems to be delighting in the destruction of other financial firms. Seems as if too big to fail needs to be matched with the Bigger they are the harder they fall.

CNBC Vultures Pick on Lehman Brothers while the world looks on…

The image of a “pitbull” seems to fit the media these days, as certain shows seem to latch onto a story and refuse to let go until the life of the story is completely extinguished.  At CNBC - there seems to be a fixation with seeing Lehman Brothers extinguished - headed by Charlie Gasparino.  But almost the entire staff seems to be feeding a frenzy of fear to anyone that happens to tune in for more than 5 minutes. 

 Jerry Furst is an active trader, educator, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN), He is a Mentor and Trading Coach to Select Clients  Click Here for a Free Self Evaluation Survey.

Another Week- Another Hurricane

Volatility in the Oil markets will be front and center as Hurricane Ike is expected to enter the Gulf of Mexico Tuesday. This  coincides with OPEC’s meeting where production cuts are expected to be talked about and possibly implemented. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will be the topic of the day Monday.

Greenback Poised to Give Back this Week?

The currency markets seem poised to retrace some of the US Dollars recent gains - but the trend is with the US Dollar as larger geo-political issues are taking place off most people radar screens.

Below is a Consolidated Summary of Scheduled News Events that I am watching for the “Week Ahead”

Note: All times are listed in US Eastern Time Zone and there are other scheduled events that I may not have listed.

Jerry’s List: US Scheduled Events Watch for:Sept 8 -12

Jerry’s List: International Scheduled Events Watch for:Sept 8-12

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Click Here to Register for the “1st on Forex” The Week Ahead Webinar  - Monday September 8th @ 12 Noon EDT - 16:00 GMT

Jerry Furst is an active trader, educator, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN), He is a Mentor and Trading Coach to Select Clients  Click Here for a Free Self Evaluation Survey.