By Jerry Furst - Sr Analyst
 

The Dollar - Gives and Takes

The past few days have seen the US Dollar give back a small portion of it’s historic rally - save the Yen… This despite factors that fundamentally - “in normal times” - should have hammered the greenback. The biggest factor being the FOMC dropping rates to 1%, and GDP coming in an anemic 0.3%.

Jumbo Jets and Jobs Anyone?

Durable Goods in September were reported to be a positive 0.8% with expectations running as low as -3%. This was primarily attributed to aircraft orders. With the Delta and Northwest merger approved by shareholders - there may be a few “pre-owned” birds along with some stewardesses on the market. Jobless claims came in at a steady - unchanged 479,000 on Thursday - only to hear that American Express and Motorola were going to lay off a pfat part of their payroll.

Costa Rican Telemarketing @ the Beach?

Joke of the Day: What do you get when you put some laid off Airline workers, cellphone makers, and wall street types together at the unemployment line talking about pensions and vacations? Send me your punch line. (I’m thinking Quentin Tarantino for some reason)

 

Technically Speaking - More Patterns I See

The Canadian Dollar Setting Up Again?

(Click to Enlarge Chart)

 USD-CAD Symetrical Triangle

USD-CAD Symmetrical Triangle

appears to be setting up on the 60 minute chart as of 1:30am October 31. Fibonacci levels coincide with the potential price pattern targets at 1.2540 for the upside and 1.700 for the downside support level.

 

Look back at my previous posts from October 21 - 26 for a text book example of a triangle pattern completing quite nicely.

Live Webinar Monday - The Week Ahead - Free Registration
Click Here to Register for the Monday Nov 3 “1st on Forex” The Week Ahead Webinar  - broadcast every Monday at 12 Noon EDT - on FX Street via Hotcomm.

 

Jerry Furst  is an active trader, educator, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN), He is a Mentor and Trading Coach to Select Clients  Click Here for a Free Self Evaluation Survey.  


Posted on October 28, 2008 at 21:17 in Fundamental Analysis, News: Scheduled and Breaking, Technical Analysis by Jerry FurstNo Comments »
By Jerry Furst - Sr Analyst
The Bernanke team at the FOMC is expected to lower rates by as much as 50 bps tommorrow. This as Jean Claude Trichet at the ECB, and the Bank of England are under pressure and telegraphing that they too will be lowering rates.
 
Live Webinars on FOMC and US GDP Report - Free Registration
Click Here to Register for the Monday Nov 3 “1st on Forex” The Week Ahead Webinar  - Every Monday at 12 Noon EDT -

FOMC and US GDP Report Live Webinars Ths week - Click Here to Register

Jerry Furst  is an active trader, educator, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN), He is a Mentor and Trading Coach to Select Clients  Click Here for a Free Self Evaluation Survey.

Video of Results of Monday’s Webinar Technical Analysis

 


Posted on October 26, 2008 at 3:43 in Fundamental Analysis, News: Scheduled and Breaking, Technical Analysis by Jerry FurstNo Comments »
By Jerry Furst - Sr Analyst
Last Weeks Chart Analysis Results

700 Pip Targets Hit in 48 Hours - Dollar Continues Amazing Rally - Technicals Look Great

Greenspans Admits to Flawed Reality of Greeds Span

The Senate oversight committee with testimony from former chairman Greenspan, Treasury Secretary Snow, and SEC Commissioner Cox was barely covered by the networks. It amazes me that the pundits and judge Judy can talk over and over rule what could have been the most important testimony broadcast to date as to what happened and why there was so little oversight.   Given the fact that Tax payer dollars are being used - you would think the tax payers should be given the opportunity to listen to the testimony - un interrupted if they wanted to.  But no reason to bore the people with the facts from the sources directly - better we get some 4th party opinion to talk over the testimony in between commercials.

The Week Ahead - Calendar and Webinars

 Summarized Scheduled Economic Calendar - Click Here

***  Attend A Free Live Market Coverage and Technical Analysis Webinar ***

Click Here to Register for this weeks “1st on Forex” The Week Ahead Webinar  - Every Monday at 12 Noon EDT -

FOMC and US GDP Report Live Webinars Ths week - Click Here to Register

Jerry Furst  is an active trader, educator, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN), He is a Mentor and Trading Coach to Select Clients  Click Here for a Free Self Evaluation Survey.

 


Posted on October 21, 2008 at 8:25 in Fundamental Analysis, Relevant Ramblings, Technical Analysis by Jerry FurstNo Comments »

If You Can’t Say Anything Good - Keep Your Mouth Shut!

 Miami Branch of Atlanta Federal Reserve

Last week I was invited to the Federal Reserve in Miami for Dinner and a Seminar, The Filet was excellent! The subject matter made me uneasy as I came to realize that there is a bit of a disconnect between the realities on the ground and the knee jerk reactions taking place in Washington. 

I would like to report that the end is near for our economic troubles - however I think I will just let the Fed and the Treasury do what it does - they have some good ideas and they do seem to be taking action - although it all seems to be symptom based and observational in nature -  versus leadership based, and proactive. I was vocal about the need to address the root of the problems - Like getting people into real mfg jobs creating and installing solar panels and hydrogen-electric-propane vehicles… getting us off the oil and utility companies nipple, etc….

Retroacttive Tax Deductions - Stimulus Plan II

One suggestion I made at the Fed meeting was an idea to return the tax deduction for using credit - retroactively - for all those people teased into spending to keep the worlds economy humming? I heard Ben Bernanke today mention that he was in favor  of a second stimulus package.

Another Idea: Recall All Dollars - Before They Start The Printing!

Another Idea I blurted out (befoe they took the microphone away from me) was to recall all US paper currency and replace them with new certificates - this would have an immediate effect of temporarily flushing/wiping out the underground - unreported economy. Might as well create some new certificates as long as they are going to have to start printing a whole lot of them soon!

Technical Analysis - Dollar - Canadian Poised for a Triangle Break?

Dollar Canadian Triangle Pattern

The US Dollar - Canadian - 4 Hour Chart shows a nice example of a Triangle pattern with a very strong supportive trend line and a well defined resistance line on top. The Fibonacci Retracements and Extensions are lining up with the Triangle Pattern’s potential projected price targets. 

Jerry Furst  is an active trader, educator, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN), He is a Mentor and Trading Coach to Select Clients  Click Here for a Free Self Evaluation Survey.

 


Posted on October 16, 2008 at 17:57 in Fundamental Analysis, News: Scheduled and Breaking by Jerry FurstNo Comments »

I’m Back - On the Road Again…. An Evening with the Fed

Well folks, I just returned from Orlando Florida – home of Mickey Mouse, and I am now off to a cocktail reception and dinner at the Miami branch of the Federal Reserve tonight. That’s right, your humble narrator on the markets has been invited to: “An Evening with the Fed: Financial Crisis - What Happened - The Fed’s Response” - When I talked with the coordinator and joked about whether Bernanke would be there I was met with silence….                         

Multi-Tasking

I will tell you all about my adventure to the Fed over the next day or two - Be sure to tune in to my webinar on Monday at 12 noon eastern time as I am sure to have some observations for you. Click on the link below to register for the webinar.  I am busy trading all markets and maintaining other issues personal and otherwise - So I’m having fun learning how to live on a few hours of sleep and multi-task even more than usual…

 

Orlando: Psychology and Mind Management Conference

 

In Orlando, I did not dance with Mini-Mouse or take in the rides, I was at an amazing conference conducted by one of my Mentors, Mr. T. Harv Eker, The conference had nothing to do with trading or investing – it was all about Psychology and Mind Management – any professional trader will likely tell you that mastering your mind is the most critical factor to success - after you learn the mechanics of trading. Being a mentor, presenter and an educator - I love continuing education, networking,  and learning from others - I then pass my learned experiences on to those I teach.

Hot Topic - The Economy - No Surprises

While officially the conference had nothing to do with trading – but the economy, investing, and trading was a common topic in between speakers and sessions. For the people who knew me and my background it was really interesting to interact with non-traders discussing things like the Vix and why Richard Nixon took the US Dollar off the gold standard, etc…

 

My Economy is Fine

It was interesting as the primary speaker and celebrity – The host is quite well known – T. Harv Eker – He is successful and he came out stating that we need to be thankful for all the good things we have. He stated that “His Economy is Fine”.

 

The Need for Financial Education

Mr. Eker (and many of us) see this time as a great opportunity (remember everything is perception and perspective) He stated that he is buying. Someone in the crowd asked,  “What are you buying?”  Mr. Eker paused, squinted and quietly stated that he was buying indexes. It bothered me that some people I talked to did not know what an index was – the need for education is enormous.

 

Register for Weekly and Special Webinars hosted on FX StreetYou can register for my webinars by visiting the www.Investors-Education-Network.com web site
Jerry Furst  is an active trader, educator, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN), He is a Mentor and Trading Coach to Select Clients  Click Here for a Free Self Evaluation Survey.

 

 

By Jerry Furst - Sr Analyst

Search for a Bottom Continues

Back on September 28 I stated that,  “Chicken little was “buying Puts on SKY”" - I believe that the trade is probably profitable - As the search for a bottom continues…

With an unscheduled interest rate cut by the US - coordinated with the other Central Banks not helping calm or give confidence to the markets - Could ths be the capitulation - or just a stop along the way?

Tipping Point and the Chinese

Rick Santelli on CNBC is saying that we are at the “tipping point” and he was seen waving the white flag for the credit markets.  As Rick was speaking -  I was just reminded of the old “Tip Jar” joke sign that says “Tipping is Not a City in China”, and wonder what the Chinese are thinking - and doing…  Let alone the free worlds other friends that are flush with Dollars …

Earlier This Morning Developments from the UK

UK Bank Bailouts and Mergers are continuing and the UK Prime Minister Brown is calling on G7 and G20 nations to come together to strategize. I think they passed a $500 Billion Pound Sterling  bailout plan. 

Personal Note and No Webinar This Monday

The “1st on Forex” blog and weekly webinar will be on hold this coming Monday and I will return Due to my focus on trading, personal, and family issues I have not been able to keep this blog updated as often as I wish lately. But Stay Tuned… and Subscribe with the subscription box on the left panel here. 

I am travelling now to Orlando for a conference and will return next Tuesday - So in the mean time - trade safe.  I’m going to Disney World…!

Register for Weekly and Special Webinars hosted on FX Street

You can register for my webinars by visiting the www.Investors-Education-Network.com web site

Jerry Furst  is an active trader, educator, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN), He is a Mentor and Trading Coach to Select Clients  Click Here for a Free Self Evaluation Survey.


Posted on October 5, 2008 at 6:49 in Uncategorized by Jerry FurstNo Comments »
By Jerry Furst - Sr Analyst

EU Meets Over the Weekend

Pumping in liquidity and propping up businesses was front and center this weekend as a crisis in confidence is being headed off by a symphony of concerted action by central banks and governments and the EU nations trying to maintain composure on their alliance. 

The Financial Times is reporting that the EU Leaders are making statements vs proposing action to . “deal with the worst financial crisis since the 1930’s” ) click here for article

The Week Ahead

G7 Meets This Week, BOE releases Interest Rate Statement, FOMC Minutes will reveal what Bernanke and team were thinking at their last meeting.

Other Scheduled Events …

The Week Ahead Calendar and Webinar - Click Here

Jerry Furst  is an active trader, educator, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN), He is a Mentor and Trading Coach to Select Clients  Click Here for a Free Self Evaluation Survey.


Posted on October 2, 2008 at 12:34 in Fundamental Analysis, News: Scheduled and Breaking by Jerry Furst1 Comment »
By Jerry Furst - Sr Analyst
 
ECB: Rates on Hold for Now
Jean Claude-Trichet has decided to hold rates steady. During his press conference Trichet is  being quoted as saying that, “Upside inflation risks have diminished somewhat.” His rationale is that the high inflation coming through the pipes is from past oil and food price hikes, and he anticipates these costs coming down.  
This as the European Central Bank head faces the hard realities of the Euro-zone sinking into recession. However,  The phone lines are probably quite active between manu of the central bankers and it may be only a matter of time before rates start coming down from many central banks.
 
Bernanke Surprise Coming?
The odds of a surprise move by the FOMC and Ben Bernanke could potentially come at any time (as always) with an unscheduled rate cut. The questions here if that happens are: how much of a cut, if it will be coordinated with other central banks, or if it causes a domino effect of some kind. Currency traders do not want to be caught by a surprise like this - tight stops may not work.
 
Euro Makes New Lows as Dollar Holds Up
 
The Euro made fresh yearly lows of 1.3854 before rebounding back to the 1.3900 handle after the rate decision. The Greenback is showing superb strength in the face of the potential for a lot of printing. However US Jobless claims came out higher as Non Farm Payroll is due up tomorrow.
  
Stabilization-Rescue-Bailout Drama Continues 
 
In the evening of October 1, The US Senate passed a “Stabilization” bill that is being passed over to the House. The questions are will the bill pass, and will it work as intended to stave off more serious issues pending. It’s amazing to watch  the political gears turn so fast - with so many citizens finally waking up - after so many players being asleep at the wheel for so long.
 
Trade Safe and or Enjoy the Show!
 
 The 1st on Forex - Week Ahead - Summarized Calendar and Webinar

Live Webinar Schedule - Click Here

The Week Ahead - Summarized Scheduled News Events Calendar - Click Here

Jerry Furst  is an active trader, educator, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN), He is a Mentor and Trading Coach to Select Clients  Click Here for a Free Self Evaluation Survey.