Lots of Scheduled News on the Calendar

Beginning of the Week - Retail sales will be the focus as anecdotal reports of the Holiday season kicking off with last weeks Black Friday and the Thanksgiving holiday weekend. They call it “Black Friday” because many retailers traditionally get profitable and into the “Black” with the surge of holiday sales. This season the term may take on a different meaning…

Interst Rates Around the Globe Expected To Drop

Mid Week - Australia, New Zealand, The UK, and the Euro Zone all are expected to slash interest rates this week - There may be some surprises to the upside and downside as some of the expectations are for very large cuts.  The uncertainty could play out on the charts with some temporary volatility - so be sure to trade accordingly!

Leading Up To Non- Farm Payroll Friday

End of the Week - Employment data in the US will be trickling in Wednesday from ADP and Challenger, and Thursday from Monster.com - leading up to Friday’s Non-Farm Payroll report.  Wrapping up the week is the US consumer credit report at 15:00 Friday.

For more scheduled news events … Check out my consolidated event calendar and join my webinar

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Jerry Furst  is an active trader, educator, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN), He is a Mentor and Trading Coach to Select Clients  Click Here for a Free Self Evaluation Survey.

The US Dollar Rallies against the Swiss and the Euro

Head and Shoulders

The 2 Hour chart on the Euro shows a decent Head and Shoulders Pattern that completed after taking a Thanksgiving Day pause. The Chart Below Shows the Inverse Correlation between the Euro and the Swiss back in sync - However - the other majors did not participate and consolidated

Inverse Head and Shoulders ? 

Above USD-CHF chart shows the mirror image of the EUR-USD, However - this Inverse Head and Shoulder has not reached it’s patterns target price. The Euro-USD basically has played out the pattern - so we need to watch the USD-CHF to see if this will complete.

Pound Does Not Participate

The other majors did not participate in the move shown with the Euro and the Swiss - As one example the above chart shows the continued consolidation on the Pound - Dollar.

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Good News and Signs Emerge

The US Consumer is feeling more optimistic, and the President Elect continues to show he is working hard at putting together his team to address the US and World economic situation.

The Currencies React

At 8:30 the news hit the charts that the US GDP came in at the consensus number of -0.5% growth.

The Pound Sterling rose from 1.5000 to 1.5400 in an hours time!

Dollar Losing to the Loonie? Chart above shows a possible beginning of a new Stair Step pattern down.

Jerry Furst is Sr Technical and Market Analyst and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN), He is a an active trader, educator, mentor, and trading coach to Select Clients  Click Here for your Free Trader Self Evaluation Survey.

Greenback Rally Strides On  

My last post on November 18^th showed the USD-CHF getting to a pinnacle point of decision as the chart showed a beautiful upward trend channel that was getting narrower and narrower – so a trend line break was immanent

Charts Past and Present

The chart above shows that the Dollar decided to break out to the upside vs the Swiss as the Chart below shows the EUR-USD continued its descent in the existing trend channel.

The USD-CAD took the highroad breaking out of a classic triangle formation and now pausing about 500 pips higher than where she stood two days earlier on Nov 18, 2008

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Click Here to Watch Live Coverage of the US GDP Sponsored by   Tue - Nov 25

Jerry Furst is Sr Technical and Market Analyst and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN), He is a an active trader, educator, mentor, and trading coach to Select Clients 

Dollar Rally Pauses - Charts Tell The Story

The Dollar may be poised to retrace as several bad numbers are out again so far this week, GM is still teetering on either Bankruptcy or Bailout, and Wednesday is bringing CPIand Housing Data that may poke the charts around a bit. Take a look at the following three 4 Hour charts of the Euro, Loonie, and Swiss pairs versus the US Dollar.

Euro at the Crossroads - Triangles and Trend Chanells (click Above)

USD-CAD - Trend Chanell or Triangle Break (click above)

USD-CHF: Upward Trend Coming to the End of the Road?

 Jim Rogers, “It’s Happening Again!”

The famed trader speaks on the US Dollar, Real Estste Speculation, and more…

 http://www.ft.com/cms/893ac9c8-757e-11dc-b7cb-0000779fd2ac.html?_i_referralObject=929363526&fromSearch=n  From www.FT.com

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Click Here to Watch Live Coverage of the US GDP Sponsored by   Tue - Nov 25

Jerry Furst is Sr Technical and Market Analyst and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN), He is a an active trader, educator, mentor, and trading coach to Select Clients 

“We’ll Meet Again”

The much anticipated Historic G20 meeting in Washington this weekend leaves me wanting something more – and yet the status quo seems so comfortable. My hunch that this would be a meeting to have more meetings until Obama gets “steeped” into his new gig was spot on.

Spot and Stock Markets Will React on Monday

The markets may have wanted something more substantial that a agreement to meet on the 101^st day of the Obama administration – The communiqué states that the Group of XX “will meet again by April 30, 2009, to review the implementation of the principles and decisions agreed today.” Reminds me of the music from the final scene from Dr Strange Love as the bombs go off… “We’ll Meet Again… Don’t Know Where…”

Bush Says, “Goodbye”

Outgoing US President Bush hosted the world’s leaders at the White House on Friday and seemed to want to enjoy the photo op – but the body language of the other leaders seemed to be impatient. Market News International reports that the president’s last word at the microphone was “goodbye”.

The Official Declaration and Communique - Has the Last Word - In Error!

I found it interesting that at the bottom of the official communiqué was the message. [an error occurred while processing this directive] – (Click Above Image)

Click here for the entire Communiqué from the G20

http://www.g7.utoronto.ca/g20/2008-leaders-declaration-081115.html

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Dollar Acting Schizoid Ahead of G20

The “normal” correlations of currency pairs was anything but – as the Euro surged from the 1.2500 range to over 1.2850, while the Pound Sterling lost ground most of the day closing relatively unchanged at around 1.4800. Meanwhile the Carry Trade continues it’s gyrations as the dollar gained ground against the Yen while losing against the Aussie. The Canadian Loonie also lost it’s marbles dropping from 1.2400 to 1.2100, All this within a traders dayze.

Review of the Charts - 3 Days Later

(Above)  Aussie Maintains Consolidation but Tests Support (click on Charts to Enlarge)

(Above)  Dollar - Swiss pair continues upward trend while creating a new lower support line

Above-  Euro makes almost a double bottomand stays within Trend Channel - (click to Enlarge)

 Above - Pound Rides the Lower Trend Channel - Testing Below  (click to Enlarge)

President Bush Addresses Manhattan Institute
The currencies seemed to get reactive around the same time as President Bush addressed the Manhattan Institute mid day. His speech seemed to be a reminder of why the Free Market system must survive despite the changes that must be made to move into the interconnected global markets. Bush may have been alluding to the Bretton Woods agreement when he stated that decisions and changes must be made that, “Better reflect the 21st century not those based in the 1940’s” – which leads me to discuss the….

Historic G20 Meeting starts in Washington
UK Prime Minister Harold Brown has been quoted as saying that decisions over the next few months will reshape our world for the next few decades or more. President elect Obama is sending former secretary of state Albright to monitor the discussions. In my opinion he is missing an opportunity to understand the players and issues – yet his appearance may have been a distraction - so It’s a toss up.

Tensions may run high, and with 20 nations sovereignty on the line - the odds are that this meeting will be a meeting to hold more meetings. UN-less some agreement has already been drafted behind the scenes –

The news on Thursday morning was bleak

New Weekly Jobless Claims were far worse than expected with 516,000 new additions to the unemployment rolls and the US Trade Numbers showed a large drop in exports. But that did not stop the market from surging ahead.

The Good News
The MBA Mortgage Purchase Applications rose 9% and Refinancing applications were up 16% as lower interest rates are filtering down to the buyers that need to sop up the liquidity of the flooded housing market.

Friday Brings Retail Sales and Consumer Sentiment

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The Week That Was: Nov 3 - 7 

Last Tuesday’s Historic US election of Barack Obama was followed by disappointing reaction from the markets, with ADP employment numbers confirming contraction on Wednesday. Thursday  got started with a monster 1.5% surprise interest rate cut by the Bank of England, and Friday closed the week with Non Farm Payrolls painting a bleak picture, and then to close out the week we had Consumer Credit jumping 6.9 Billion in September.

The Week Ahead Nov 10-14

This week gives us a breather in scheduled news until Thursday when International Trade numbers coe out with the Weekly Jobless Claims. Friday has import - Export prices, with Retail Sales at 8:30, followed by Consumer Sentiment and Business Inventories at 10:00pm. The equity markets may be tested as AIG and GM will be trying the patience of the media.

Currencies Look Paused For a Break Out

A look at the majors on a Daily or 4 Hour chart shows some triangle and consolidation patterns. Submitted for your approval Note the charts below.  

The Aussie - US Dollar looks Like Consolidation

The Euro Testing Support

US Dollar Approaching Resistance versus Swiiss Franc

Pound Sterling Approaches Support of Descending Triangle and has a Trend Channel to follow.

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Investors Education Network

Pre Non Farm Payroll Numbers Disapointed early Wednesday as

Interest rate Cuts of 50bps are expected from the BOE and ECB Thursday. No shock to the  charts are expected - but expect the unexpected.

November 5th, 2008 - Nothing but Down

Above - The Major Indexes and the VIX-Volatility Index 5 Minute Charts

Above - USD-JPY 4 Hour Chart breaking Support (click to enlarge)

Finally - the Election of 2008 is Over! - Now What?

Thankfully John McCain allowed Americans to get an early nights sleep Tuesday by conceding defeat - before California and the West coast was even finished voting.

 For me, John McCain and Barack Obama both never resonated beyond mediocre sound bites. IMO – Despite McCain’s pleas for others to help him fight, It looked as if the maverick was relieved to give up. Only in the last few days was Sarah Palin allowed to regain her dignity and throw a few punches for him.  

 The Big Picture - Click to Enlarge

US President Elect Obama makes his acceptance speech Tuesday night

Calls for the lowering of expectations are coming from the four corners of the left.

Now that the media has put the public in a state of mass psychosis, the public will be in need of a “rattle ya jewelry”, John Lennon type statement from the President elect. Reality sank in fast Wednesday as the financial markets gave BO the cold shoulder as the weight of the world began it’s descent.  

Leadership Needed Now for US All – Starting with You!

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