Holiday Season - A Good Time To Prepare for 2009
Posted on December 23, 2008 at 5:04 in Because You Asked, Fundamental Analysis by Jerry FurstNo Comments »

Good Time To  Work On Your Trading and Business Plan

This market - and season is quite unique. During my webinar today I suggested that traders consider taking the Holiday Season off - away from trading - and concentrate on reflecting on this past years trading and amazing market dynamics. It is also a great time to work on a true business and trading plan for next year.

Survey Yourself

A good way to start is with the free survey - go to the link: http://tinyurl.com/a56tex

Q: RE: Volatility During Holiday Season

A question-comment to previous blog post yesterday asks if the holiday season can result in a thin market and cause a range bound market regardless of fundamental news events. My Reply:

Currency Markets Know No Holidays! One of my favorite sayings is that the Currency Markets Know No Holidays! Being a global market, some cultures do not celebrate others - and as long as a bank is open somewhere currencies can trade - it all boils down to access through your broker.

“It’s Different This Time” 

Having said that - another point you raise is that my past experience of holiday seasons gives me a level of expectation - but this market and holiday season is not the same as last year, and next year will be different still.  You need to always evaluate each season and circumstance individually. It’s the one time that “It’s Different This Time” is really true! 

 Regarding the implications of news releases and volatility during the holiday season, although it is anticipated that there will be thin volume - there is actually a potential for wider swings - especially if there is surprising news “scheduled or non-scheduled” it will most likely affect the markets with more of a wild swing. - bringing me to my initial point - Enjoy the Holiday Season and reflect on what you learned in 2008 and what you will plan to do in 2009.

Cheers - and Happy Holidays!

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Jerry Furst  is an active trader, educator, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN), He is a Mentor and Trading Coach to Select Clients  Click Here for a Free Self Evaluation Survey.

 

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Video Response to Comment - Question: Will Pound Rebound?
Posted on August 14, 2008 at 4:41 in Because You Asked, Fundamental Analysis, Technical Analysis by Jerry FurstNo Comments »
Reader Comments

Hi, Do you expect any bounce in GBP above 1.90 again… or looking towards 1.80 levels this month

regards - krishna  - Posted by: krishna | August 13, 2008 at 05:53 PM

 

I Thought I Would do Something Different - A Video Response:

 

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Jerry Furst  is an active trader, educator, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN), He is a Mentor and Trading Coach to Select Clients  Click Here for a Free Self Evaluation Survey.

 

1987 Crash Conference Call and "TAF" - Exposed Online
Posted on June 3, 2008 at 4:07 in Because You Asked, Relevant Ramblings by Jerry FurstNo Comments »

Treasury Auction Facility or “TAF” - Defined

During today’s “1st on Forex - The Week Ahead” Webinar I was asked by a participant if I could explain what the “TAF” is and why it is important. I hemmed - and hawed and choked - debating with myself - for about 2 seconds - on whether I should embark on this relevant tangent or focus on the charts.

The charts won…. But I want to answer the question here.  The Treasury Auction Facility - otherwise known as “TAFS”  allows the Federal Reserve to provide liquidity to banks during times of interbank stress.

FOMC Historical Documents Now Online

Lot’s of great information at the Federal Reserve web site. 

1987 Crash Conference Call - “Why is the Dollar so Strong?”

I found interesting a transcript of a conference call during the Crash of 1987 where Chairman Greenspan is asking Sam Cross manager of Foreign Operations to explain, “Why is the dollar as strong as it is?” Mr. Cross replies, ” That’s a very good question  and I wish I had a good answer for it.”

It reminds me of a line from the movie “Apocalypse Now” when Martin Sheen asks a soldier in the middle of a fire fight “Who’s in charge here?” to which the soldier replies, “I thought you were!”

Link to the 1987 conference call transcript is:

http://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/FOMC19871020confcall.pdf

Jerry Furst  is an active trader, educator, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN),He is available as a Mentor and Trading Coach to Select Clients Click Here for a Free Self Evaluation Survey.

Reader Comment on Inverse Head and Shoulder Pattern
Posted on November 21, 2006 at 21:44 in Because You Asked by Jerry Furst1 Comment »

Hello.

Well, in my opinion the h&s pattern which is pointed out is not a good one, and if I am wrong, then where is the "neck line". A "neck line" should be a decision making line or "triggering point in h&s pattern, but on your  chart, I see a line called "decision line".
I apologize if my comment/question is not clear. I will try to make it clear: where is the neck line for the pattern show on your chart (chart2)?

Thank you and good luck to all.

Rezo
===============================

Hi Rezo,

Thank you for your question. Allow me to elaborate - This is a "potential " Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern. It is not yet confirmed. You shoudl be able to see the "potential" slanting neck line drawn is clearly visible at R2 (approx 1.9230-1.9270).

R1 is what I labeled the "Decision Point" meaning price will decide whether this will or will not become an Inverse Head and Shoulders. Notice I draw an arrow that bounces down off this resiitance point (R1) If that happens, then this is a failed pattern that was setting up. (Reviewing this for you I noticed that the arrow for this H&S failure should have been drawn from R2 - not R1.) 

The other possibility is where I have drawn another arrow that continues through R1 and R2 all the way to a H&S Completeion point at approx 1.9800.  This would be the maximum potential of the Inverse Head and Shoulders patern.

2006nov20_gbpusd_chart4_inverse_hs2

Time will tell the accuracy of this potential pattern and analysis. Interpreting the right edge of the chart is a bit more challenging than going back and showing you what has already come to be. I encourage all my readers to send me thier "right edge" analysis - as that is the market!

You can be  sure I will discuss this chart during Mondays 12:00 GMT Free Webinar on FX Street - Feel free to log in and ask me your questions live!

You must pre-register ahead of time by clicking on this link: http://www.fxstreet.com/live/sessions/session.aspx?id=152c5efa-528a-4d2e-a1da-b8210f2fe7d0    

Good Trading to all - Jerry Furst for "1st on Forex"

Go Ask Jerry: Q and A - EXECUTION IS KING!
Posted on October 17, 2006 at 5:16 in Because You Asked by Jerry FurstNo Comments »

From the Internet:

Hi Jerry,  I really enjoy reading your blog and looks like you are making some good observations. I have a question.

Q: I was trading the EUR-USD long this morning (Oct 16 2006 EST) and I got my 1st profit target of 1.2527,and should have gotten my Profit Target 2 of 1.2537 according to my charting program.  My broker apparently did not see that the markets reached my PT2. By the time I looked at my charts again I was loosing 2 Pip’s on PT2, and then I closed my trade. At least I did make 4 PIPS on PT1 of 1.2527. 

Can You Tell Me Why I was Not Filled at 1.2537?
Grass Hopper 

A: Grass Hopper, The EUR-USD only ticked at your target: 1.2537, briefly this morning. Congratulations on calling "Thee Top" of the day! Butt I have to ask,  Were you being greedy with a pip or two? If so, Let that be a lesson to you. (Hey, that rhymes!). Although you did not provide me with a chart of your analysis or how you calculated 2537 - I will assume for the purpose of this blog that you tried to capture the absolute top - instead of being happy with one or two pips less.

The bottom line is that your charting service (which I have concealed the name of) is a composite of several hundred banks and brokers trading on the inter-bank market. It appears as if your broker (who I have concealed the name of) never traded at the high of 1.2537 for the few ticks that a few others did. Remember, there is no central exchange and although the Forex market is extremely liquid - your broker might not be!

This begs me to tell you that in all trading - whatever you trade (stocks options, futures, milk, corn, gold, EUR-USD) EXECUTION IS KING! It’s worth every pip as your example clearly points out - as you lost much more than one pip. I also suspect that you were trading with market and not limit orders.

Tsk tsk, Grass Hopper!….. I suggest you demo trade Tuesdays PPI and TIC Reports and Wednesdays CPI and Housing Starts  :>)

Happy Trading - Jerry Furst for "1st in Forex"