Currencies are Breaking Out

As 2009 officially gets underway with the 1st full week of trading - the currencies are displaying “unusual” correlations - or the lack there of. For example:

UK Pound Rallies vs The Dollar

While the Euro Breaks Down Against the US Dollar

While the US Dollar Appreciated against the Swiss

The USD-CAD Dropped to a new Support Level

So the above shows that the US Dollar is  by no means moving in the same direction. The current variations of correlations are not acting in traditional ways - this suggests to me that more volatility is likely on the way.  

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Euro Dollar Give and Take

EUR-USD 4 Hour Chart (click to Enlarge)

In one months time the Euro ran up approx 2300 pips and on Friday gave back over 800! This after the Euro fell from the 1.4800 range from September 22 to make lows around 1.2300 back on October 27 - These are amazing one month moves!

Monthly Charts Show the Picture

Pound Gets Pounded - Falling Hard  

Above: EUR-GBP Monthly (Click to Enlarge) : Euro - Pound Screaming Towards Parity!

Canadian Loonie Analysis Trend Continues 

USD-CAD 30 Min Charts (click to enlarge) The Down Trend Channel continues - Charts from Dec 15, 16, and 19th show the progression

Bens Last Hurrah?

After Tuesday’s meeting - The next scheduled FOMC meeting is January 28, will there be a new Fed Chairman at the helm, or will Bernanke be held over? Will there be any more rate cuts available at that time? There are expectations that rates could be lowered to 0.25% - making the US rates even lower than Japan.

The Dollar Continues to Give Up Ground

AUD-USD 30 Minute Chart (Click to Enlarge)

Continuing Up Trend Channel

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Chart Pattern Review - 48 Hours Later 

Two days ago I posted several charts showing some nice chart patterns - indicating to me a 

consolidation was ready to breakout and I labeled the post “Pause Before the Storm” 

Let’s look at the charts side by side now.

 USD-CAD 4 Hour Chart — 300 Pip Triangle Break Out (click to Enlarge)

 EUR-USD 30 Min Chart — Over 400 Pip Trend Channel Break (click to Enlarge)

USD-CHF 2 Hour Chart - Triangle Break - 200 Pips (click to Enlarge)

The above charts are great examples of waiting for High Probability setups on multiple pairs

all setting up at the same time.

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Dec 9, 2008 - Pause Before The Storm?

“Show and Tell” on Chart Patterns

Lot’s of Chart Patterns are Currently Forming on the Currencies - A brief discussion and then a look at some good examples of Triangle Patterns all setting up at the same time on different time frames.  

Furst -  let me give you my “two Ameros” on chart patterns. I consider them all to be “consolidation patterns” and have no bias that - for example,  an “ascending triangle”  is a “bullish pattern” - to me,  it could go in any direction. What I look for is the strength of a well formed pattern.

Is it well formed? 

If I can show people a chart and everyone quickly recognizes a Head and Shoulder Pattern, that’s a strong signal. If there is lot’s of debate - then it’s weak.  Chart Pattern recognition gets fun when you see a pattern forming at the right edge, but not yet completed. Aggressive traders can take a position that the pattern will first form - and then if it does, prepare for the potential price targets.

Don’t Get Bogged Down In Statistics

I debate the statistics some apply to chart patterns. For example: Maybe someone tested 1085 head and shoulder patterns and determined that  83.7% have a probability of completion in a certain circumstance.  So what! The 16.3% chance is just another “50-50″ coin flip if you are only looking at statistics. Well - let’s just say that I can disprove anything with statistics..

US Dollar - Canadian - Dec 9, 2008 - 4 Hour Chart

USD-CADVery Strong Triangle Pattern forming on the Dollar - Loonie. Note the multiple areas where the upward trend Channel has held - and the Resistance forming a classic Triple Top. (click to enlarge)

Euro - US Dollar Daily Chart - Dec 9, 2008

EUR-USD: No Shortage of Chart Patterns Here as we have a pretty good triangle pattern, with a consolidation zone inside. Note the Upward Trend Channel that will be brought into focus on a 30 Min chart Below

EUR-USD: 30 Minute Chart of EUR-USD Shows the Upward Trend Channel and Resistance Levels  (Click to enlarge)

US Dollar - Swiss

USD-CHF: 2 Hour Chart Dec 9, 2008 - Nice Triangle to complement the Euro-USD Pattern (Click to enlarge)

Aussie - US Dollar - Dec 9, 2008 4 Hour Chart

AUD-USD - 4 Hour Chart - Yet Another Triangle! - (Click to enlarge)

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Jerry Furst  is an active trader, educator, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN), He is a Mentor and Trading Coach to Select Clients  Click Here for a Free Self Evaluation Survey.

What Now!

Last week I went fundamental - and with good reason. There was more news than I could keep up with - scheduled or otherwise. This week I will stick to the charts - unless if we get some major fundamental issue - like Charlie Gasparino deciding to drive some poor equity into the ground. Bottom line - be ready for anything in this enviornment!

Euro in The Box - Nice Consolidation Zone

Dollar Swiss Continues in Uptrending Channel

Usually the USD-CHF is a Mirror Image of the USD-CHF, however the status quo seems to be in question as the continued Dollar strength against the Swiss is not dargging the Euro down - for now…

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The US Dollar Rallies against the Swiss and the Euro

Head and Shoulders

The 2 Hour chart on the Euro shows a decent Head and Shoulders Pattern that completed after taking a Thanksgiving Day pause. The Chart Below Shows the Inverse Correlation between the Euro and the Swiss back in sync - However - the other majors did not participate and consolidated

Inverse Head and Shoulders ? 

Above USD-CHF chart shows the mirror image of the EUR-USD, However - this Inverse Head and Shoulder has not reached it’s patterns target price. The Euro-USD basically has played out the pattern - so we need to watch the USD-CHF to see if this will complete.

Pound Does Not Participate

The other majors did not participate in the move shown with the Euro and the Swiss - As one example the above chart shows the continued consolidation on the Pound - Dollar.

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Good News and Signs Emerge

The US Consumer is feeling more optimistic, and the President Elect continues to show he is working hard at putting together his team to address the US and World economic situation.

The Currencies React

At 8:30 the news hit the charts that the US GDP came in at the consensus number of -0.5% growth.

The Pound Sterling rose from 1.5000 to 1.5400 in an hours time!

Dollar Losing to the Loonie? Chart above shows a possible beginning of a new Stair Step pattern down.

Jerry Furst is Sr Technical and Market Analyst and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN), He is a an active trader, educator, mentor, and trading coach to Select Clients  Click Here for your Free Trader Self Evaluation Survey.

Greenback Rally Strides On  

My last post on November 18^th showed the USD-CHF getting to a pinnacle point of decision as the chart showed a beautiful upward trend channel that was getting narrower and narrower – so a trend line break was immanent

Charts Past and Present

The chart above shows that the Dollar decided to break out to the upside vs the Swiss as the Chart below shows the EUR-USD continued its descent in the existing trend channel.

The USD-CAD took the highroad breaking out of a classic triangle formation and now pausing about 500 pips higher than where she stood two days earlier on Nov 18, 2008

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Jerry Furst is Sr Technical and Market Analyst and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN), He is a an active trader, educator, mentor, and trading coach to Select Clients 

Dollar Rally Pauses - Charts Tell The Story

The Dollar may be poised to retrace as several bad numbers are out again so far this week, GM is still teetering on either Bankruptcy or Bailout, and Wednesday is bringing CPIand Housing Data that may poke the charts around a bit. Take a look at the following three 4 Hour charts of the Euro, Loonie, and Swiss pairs versus the US Dollar.

Euro at the Crossroads - Triangles and Trend Chanells (click Above)

USD-CAD - Trend Chanell or Triangle Break (click above)

USD-CHF: Upward Trend Coming to the End of the Road?

 Jim Rogers, “It’s Happening Again!”

The famed trader speaks on the US Dollar, Real Estste Speculation, and more…

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Jerry Furst is Sr Technical and Market Analyst and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN), He is a an active trader, educator, mentor, and trading coach to Select Clients