By Jerry Furst - Sr Analyst - Investors Education Network

 Euro Poised For Breakout?

The Daily Chart of the EUR-USD (above) shows the Euro breaking resistance of a trend chanell

While the 4 Hour Chart of the EUR-USD (above) shows an Inverse Head and Shoulder

This is confirmed with the Inverse Correlated USD-CHF (above) with a Head and Shoulder

Both 4 Hour charts show a strong Support and Resistance lines .

 The Week Ahead

The long awaited results of the so called “Stress Test” of US banks has been delayed. Speculation is that the original results were “sugar coated” for the government view and the requirements for some banks to raise more capital and could roil the markets.

 Tuesday, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke testifies to the Joint Economic Committee of Congress with his outlook on the US and the “Bizzaro” World Economy

 Thursday has the ECB and BoE with Interest rate and Quantitative Easing policy and other “unconventional methods” to combat the

 Friday has US Non Farm Payroll and Canada Unemployment Data

Tune in to the 1st on Forex - Week Ahead  Webinar - Click Here

Jerry Furst  is an active trader, educator, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN), He is a Mentor and Trading Coach to Select Clients  Click Here for a Free Self Evaluation Survey.

By Jerry Furst - Sr Analyst “1st on Forex”

at Investors Education Network.com

Mid Week Review

As we await Interest Rates from the ECB and the UK.

The fools on the hill continue to entertain us with their multi-trillion dollar show…

The Cast of Characters:

The President, The Fed Chairman, the Treasury Secretary, the Prime Minister of the UK, and Jimmy Rodgers!

So far this week has shown…

An amazing Soap opera of intrigue as the President of the United States suggested that it might be a good time to start buying into the stock market for “the long term”.

Tuesday Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke took the hot seat for Senate testimony and amongst some of the things he said was….

“There was Failure of oversight….”

Looming Commercial Real Estate Crisis

AIG’s Financial Product Division was separate from their New York State Insurance company…. (However they both seem to be on the same ship….)

Rewarding the Three major credit agencies, despite their lack of any credible ratings - seemed to be ok with the Fed chairman

Bernanke Dodged the question

When asked, “Should banks, using taxpayer money to bail them out, charge those same taxpayers in excess of 20% interest on credit cards?” He bailed out of an answer…

When the question of Nationalization came up - his answer was that he did not think it would be necessary - but was prepared…(that means to me- it will and basically has already happened)

A pointed question of “Do you think there are any “outer limits” as to how much money you are prepared and able to provide to bail out banks - received a vague ” there is a limit…  (just how many trillion$ is still To Be Determined)

Meanwhile - over at the White House….

UK Prime Minster Brown was not treated to formal flags and podiums… but a strange oval office press conference was had…

Key points :

The G20 meeting next month in London “must clean up the banking system” and the Prim Minister mentioned that the possibility of a “Global New Deal” is quite possible in the next few months….

Does that imply that all citizens of the earth will become equally miserable?

“The Challenges are Global”

“We need a Green Recovery”

“Regulatory System Needs Global Reform”

US Treasury Secretary Timmy Gee…

Was being lobbed soft balls in his testimony -  the most important thing I heard was that the Senate leader notified the panel that the Treasury Secretary was prepared to go behind closed doors and answer questions (away from the television cameras)  Thanks for your public service guys…  

Meanwhile - Commodity Jimmy Rodgers Over in Singapore…

Interviewed live on MSNBC Wednesday Evening by Larry Kudlow

He said he was “Mind Boggled” at how the US government is imploding and being run by…. well let’s just say he did not have nice things to say about the Treasury Secretary or Fed Chairman….

Highlights and Quotes by the ex-patriot….

• - Mainly watching the markets….
• - Supply of Commodities is declining
• - Fundamentals for Commodities “Getting Better”
• - He will be exiting the US Dollar sometime in 2009 or 2010
• - In the last 2 months “the only market I’ve bought has been China”

So there you have a mid week run down - as the world awaits the Bank of England and the ECB to lower rates on Thursday - the limplications may not have any effect as we get closer to the April Fools gathering of the G20.

 But you must admit - living in this time- let alone trading through this time is as Visa would say… “priceless”…..

 Stay Tuned… It just might get more interesting as the Governments are coming to the rescue of us all!  Makes me feel quite comfortable…

 Jerry Furst  is an active trader, educator, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN), He is a Mentor and Trading Coach to Select Clients  Click Here for a Free Self Evaluation Survey. 

By Jerry Furst- Sr Analyst “1st on Forex” www.Investors-Education-Network.com

No Surprise Expected - “Jawboning” Ahead

With rates effectively at 0-0.25% Bernanke and the Fed can really only “Jawbone” at this time. Rumors and fears of Quantitative easing seem to be the “built-in” expectations.

Charts Not Showing thier Hand

A scan of the charts shows nothing “exciting” as price is likely settling in for the FOMC announcement at 2:15 EST.

GBP-USD 4 Hour chart(click to enlarge)

The Pound-Dollar had been sporting a Head and Shoulder pattern in progress, however, the chart above shows price coming back up to resistance at the neckline.

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Jerry Furs is an active trader, educator, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN), He is a Mentor and Trading Coach to Select Clients Click Here for a Free Self Evaluation Survey.

Mid Week Report

by Jerry Furst Sr. Analyst

Investors Education Network.com  

  On Monday the NBER (National Bureau of Economic Research) “determined that the decline in economic activity met the standard for a recession” and that it started in December of 2007. I find it audacious that pundits on TV now make statements like “We all knew it was a recession” - When in fact the media was trying it’s best to keep the rose colored glasses on. Back on Jan 22 my blog post was titled, “Recession in Play – Depression on the Way?”

  Also on Monday – Ben Bernanke warned that, “it’s certainly feasible” to cut rates further – thus giving the other central bankers a heads up to act accordingly. The Thanksgiving Day stock market shoppers were treated to a deep discount as the DOW plunged 679 points or -7.7%! 

 Tuesday – The markets took a breather – there was not much news and it appeared as if people were waiting for Wednesday’s data. The US “Big 3” automakers were reported to have their CEO’s driving to Washington,  and the UAW is under pressure to renegotiate it’s 2007 concessions.

 Wednesday – The EU reported poor retail sales and the UK and EU both posted dismal numbers for Services PMI – dropping the Euro around 100 pips and the Pound over 200 pips before the NY session.

 The US then got in the game and posted horrible Non-Mfg ISM numbers and the ADP jobless claims came in at -250,000 where expectations were for -200,000. The Feds Beige Book came in negative as well.

 As of this writing New Zealand is expected to cut rates from 6.5 to 5% at 3pm Eastern time.

 Thursday – Interest Rate and Trichet Watch

Which leads us to the home stretch – as the UK is expected to cut rates from 3 to 2% and the Euro Zone is expected to drop rates from 3.25% to 2.75%. These are big and historic drops in size and in the rate itself. Jean Claude Trichet is scheduled to have his press conference at 8:30 am EDT in which he usually gives some clarity as to where he sees things are – and what the ECB may or may not do in the near term.

 Friday – All eyes are waiting on the Non-Farm payroll report – but will the unemployment rate really be a surprise? Will their be revisions?

 Stay Tuned… 

 The Week Ahead Calendar and Webinar - Click Here

Jerry Furst  is an active trader, educator, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN), He is a Mentor and Trading Coach to Select Clients  Click Here for a Free Self Evaluation Survey.

To see my Jan 22 – Blog Post “Recession in Play – Depression on the Way? “

http://blogs.fxstreet.com/1stonforex/2008/01/22/recession-in-play-depression-on-the-way/

If You Can’t Say Anything Good - Keep Your Mouth Shut!

Last week I was invited to the Federal Reserve in Miami for Dinner and a Seminar, The Filet was excellent! The subject matter made me uneasy as I came to realize that there is a bit of a disconnect between the realities on the ground and the knee jerk reactions taking place in Washington. 

I would like to report that the end is near for our economic troubles - however I think I will just let the Fed and the Treasury do what it does - they have some good ideas and they do seem to be taking action - although it all seems to be symptom based and observational in nature -  versus leadership based, and proactive. I was vocal about the need to address the root of the problems - Like getting people into real mfg jobs creating and installing solar panels and hydrogen-electric-propane vehicles… getting us off the oil and utility companies nipple, etc….

Retroacttive Tax Deductions - Stimulus Plan II

One suggestion I made at the Fed meeting was an idea to return the tax deduction for using credit - retroactively - for all those people teased into spending to keep the worlds economy humming? I heard Ben Bernanke today mention that he was in favor  of a second stimulus package.

Another Idea: Recall All Dollars - Before They Start The Printing!

Another Idea I blurted out (befoe they took the microphone away from me) was to recall all US paper currency and replace them with new certificates - this would have an immediate effect of temporarily flushing/wiping out the underground - unreported economy. Might as well create some new certificates as long as they are going to have to start printing a whole lot of them soon!

Technical Analysis - Dollar - Canadian Poised for a Triangle Break?

The US Dollar - Canadian - 4 Hour Chart shows a nice example of a Triangle pattern with a very strong supportive trend line and a well defined resistance line on top. The Fibonacci Retracements and Extensions are lining up with the Triangle Pattern’s potential projected price targets. 

Jerry Furst  is an active trader, educator, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN), He is a Mentor and Trading Coach to Select Clients  Click Here for a Free Self Evaluation Survey.

I’m Back - On the Road Again…. An Evening with the Fed

Well folks, I just returned from Orlando Florida – home of Mickey Mouse, and I am now off to a cocktail reception and dinner at the Miami branch of the Federal Reserve tonight. That’s right, your humble narrator on the markets has been invited to: “An Evening with the Fed: Financial Crisis - What Happened - The Fed’s Response” - When I talked with the coordinator and joked about whether Bernanke would be there I was met with silence….                         

Multi-Tasking

I will tell you all about my adventure to the Fed over the next day or two - Be sure to tune in to my webinar on Monday at 12 noon eastern time as I am sure to have some observations for you. Click on the link below to register for the webinar.  I am busy trading all markets and maintaining other issues personal and otherwise - So I’m having fun learning how to live on a few hours of sleep and multi-task even more than usual…

Orlando: Psychology and Mind Management Conference

In Orlando, I did not dance with Mini-Mouse or take in the rides, I was at an amazing conference conducted by one of my Mentors, Mr. T. Harv Eker, The conference had nothing to do with trading or investing – it was all about Psychology and Mind Management – any professional trader will likely tell you that mastering your mind is the most critical factor to success - after you learn the mechanics of trading. Being a mentor, presenter and an educator - I love continuing education, networking,  and learning from others - I then pass my learned experiences on to those I teach.

Hot Topic - The Economy - No Surprises

While officially the conference had nothing to do with trading – but the economy, investing, and trading was a common topic in between speakers and sessions. For the people who knew me and my background it was really interesting to interact with non-traders discussing things like the Vix and why Richard Nixon took the US Dollar off the gold standard, etc…

My Economy is Fine

It was interesting as the primary speaker and celebrity – The host is quite well known – T. Harv Eker – He is successful and he came out stating that we need to be thankful for all the good things we have. He stated that “His Economy is Fine”.

The Need for Financial Education

Mr. Eker (and many of us) see this time as a great opportunity (remember everything is perception and perspective) He stated that he is buying. Someone in the crowd asked,  “What are you buying?”  Mr. Eker paused, squinted and quietly stated that he was buying indexes. It bothered me that some people I talked to did not know what an index was – the need for education is enormous.

Search for a Bottom Continues

Back on September 28 I stated that,  “Chicken little was “buying Puts on SKY”" - I believe that the trade is probably profitable - As the search for a bottom continues…

With an unscheduled interest rate cut by the US - coordinated with the other Central Banks not helping calm or give confidence to the markets - Could ths be the capitulation - or just a stop along the way?

Tipping Point and the Chinese

Rick Santelli on CNBC is saying that we are at the “tipping point” and he was seen waving the white flag for the credit markets.  As Rick was speaking -  I was just reminded of the old “Tip Jar” joke sign that says “Tipping is Not a City in China”, and wonder what the Chinese are thinking - and doing…  Let alone the free worlds other friends that are flush with Dollars …

Earlier This Morning Developments from the UK

UK Bank Bailouts and Mergers are continuing and the UK Prime Minister Brown is calling on G7 and G20 nations to come together to strategize. I think they passed a $500 Billion Pound Sterling  bailout plan. 

Personal Note and No Webinar This Monday

The “1st on Forex” blog and weekly webinar will be on hold this coming Monday and I will return Due to my focus on trading, personal, and family issues I have not been able to keep this blog updated as often as I wish lately. But Stay Tuned… and Subscribe with the subscription box on the left panel here. 

I am travelling now to Orlando for a conference and will return next Tuesday - So in the mean time - trade safe.  I’m going to Disney World…!

Register for Weekly and Special Webinars hosted on FX Street

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Jerry Furst  is an active trader, educator, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN), He is a Mentor and Trading Coach to Select Clients  Click Here for a Free Self Evaluation Survey.

EU Meets Over the Weekend

Pumping in liquidity and propping up businesses was front and center this weekend as a crisis in confidence is being headed off by a symphony of concerted action by central banks and governments and the EU nations trying to maintain composure on their alliance. 

The Financial Times is reporting that the EU Leaders are making statements vs proposing action to . “deal with the worst financial crisis since the 1930’s” ) click here for article

The Week Ahead

G7 Meets This Week, BOE releases Interest Rate Statement, FOMC Minutes will reveal what Bernanke and team were thinking at their last meeting.

Other Scheduled Events …

The Week Ahead Calendar and Webinar - Click Here

Jerry Furst  is an active trader, educator, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN), He is a Mentor and Trading Coach to Select Clients  Click Here for a Free Self Evaluation Survey.

Live Webinar Schedule - Click Here

The Week Ahead - Summarized Scheduled News Events Calendar - Click Here

Jerry Furst  is an active trader, educator, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN), He is a Mentor and Trading Coach to Select Clients  Click Here for a Free Self Evaluation Survey.