by Jerry Furst – Sr Analyst at www.Investors-Education-Network.com

The Scary Carry Trade

China is concerned that the US Dollar will continue to fall and potentially cause global inflation in commodity prices. Bloomberg is reporting several Chinese officials as being “scared” and concerned about the speculation taking place as some currencies such as the Australian Dollar are being played for the new Carry Trade with the US taking the role of Japan’s easy monetary policy.

Aussie – US Dollar: Seeking Parity?

A Look at the Weekly Chart on the AUD-USD shows that the pair is racing to make a double top with parity as a potential target. The Daily Chart shows a sustained uptrend that just does not want to quit.  When watching the Aussie, traders should be aware of the correlation to Gold. This correlation  may disconnect if Gold decides to overshoot or correct.

Australian Dollar Seeking Parity?

Australian Dollar Seeking Parity?

The AUD-USD Weekly chart above (click to enlarge) shows the 75% retracement has been exceeded and a double top at 98.50 puts parity of the Australian Dollar with the Greenback within the range of possibilities.

The Trend is Your Friend - Until the End!

AUD-USD Daily  chart above (click to enlarge) shows two strong upward trend channel’s making a move that is hard to trade against.

The Week Ahead - gets Started Sunday! Webinar Monday

Lot’s of news in the opening session of the week as New Zealand, Japan and the UK have potential market moving news scheduled to kick start the volatility for the week.

Tune in to my webinar on FX Street with the link at the bottom of this post

Summarized List of Scheduled News for the Week Ahead

For a List of Economic Calendars and times for news events –

Visit and Bookmark

==> http://www.investors-education-network.com/economic-calendar.htm

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US Scheduled News

Monday: Retail Sales - Mfg Survey and Business Inventories

Tuesday: PPI: Producer Price Index - TICS: International In-Out Flows - Industrial production - Housing Market Index

Wednesday:  Housing Starts and CPI: Consumer Price Index

Thursday: US Weekly Jobless claims - Philly Fed - Leading Indicators - Fed Balance Sheet and Money Supply in Late Afternoon

Friday: No Scheduled US News

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International Scheduled News

Sunday: NZD: PPI and JPY: GDP and GBP Home Price Index

Monday: EUR: CPI AUD - RBA Monetary Meeting Minutes

Tuesday: GBP: CPI — EUR Trade Blance

Wednesday: EUR: Current Account — GBP: BoE Minutes — CAD CPI

Thursday: GBP: Retail Sales

Friday: EUR: German PPI

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Jerry Furst is an active trader, educator, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN), He is a Mentor and Trading Coach to Select Clients Click Here for a Free Self Evaluation Survey.

By Jerry Furst- Sr Analyst “1st on Forex” www.Investors-Education-Network.com

Dr Evil from Austin Powers only asked for a few hundred million

The good news may be that with this much desperation, perhaps we are closing in on the bottom. A test and bounce off of the November lows for the S&P would be nice… Let’s face it Two Trillion Dollars can go a long way – at least it used to… You just think that they would know what they are going to do with it!

On Tuesday Barack Obama fielded questions at a Town Hall meeting in Fort Meyers Florida – by a homeless woman looking for her own bathroom, an unemployed man who was looking for his full paycheck to be provided by unemployment insurance, and a part time McDonalds employee looking to get a “real job” as a broadcasting disk jockey…

US Treasury to “Stress Test” Banks

What does that really mean? The US Treasury Secretary stated it was to be interpreted as a medical term. Does this imply that the smaller regional banks – (the ones that do not have Government medical insurance – the ones small enough to fail) will be subject to the stress and strains of the market – and allowed to hit the floor?

Pass the Preparation “H” Please

Tim Geithner, Ben Bernanke, The heads of the US Banking System, The US Congress, the New President Barack Obama, The Media, The late night pundits, the bloggers, and the general public - We All have been sitting in the “Hot Seat”

Don’t Smirk Europe – The G7 Meets this week – We will pass you the tube!

Accusations of Nationalism and Protectionism is flying across Europe. Puttingthe Euro and the European Union on a stress test of it’s own… can this 10 year old, un-ratified union stand the strain?

My friends… as Jon Stewart on the Daily Show Stated…. “We are ———-“!

In the Mean Time…. Gold and the Dollar

The US Dollar is still a place of safe harbor – for now – But Gold is Inching upwards towards $1,000.

Gold ETF - GLD Daily Chart - (Click to Enlarge) Pushing Through Resistance with a nice upward trend channel.

EUR-USD Daily Chart (Click to Enlage) Head and Shoulder Pattern - maybe - maybe not - but theer’s a nice supporting trend line.

Tune in to Monday’s Free Webinar - Click Here to Register

Jerry Furst is an active trader, educator, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN), He is a Mentor and Trading Coach to Select Clients

Click Here for a Free Self Evaluation Survey.

Bens Last Hurrah?

After Tuesday’s meeting - The next scheduled FOMC meeting is January 28, will there be a new Fed Chairman at the helm, or will Bernanke be held over? Will there be any more rate cuts available at that time? There are expectations that rates could be lowered to 0.25% - making the US rates even lower than Japan.

The Dollar Continues to Give Up Ground

AUD-USD 30 Minute Chart (Click to Enlarge)

Continuing Up Trend Channel

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Jerry Furst  is an active trader, educator, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN), He is a Mentor and Trading Coach to Select Clients  Click Here for a Free Self Evaluation Survey.

Greenback Rally Strides On  

My last post on November 18^th showed the USD-CHF getting to a pinnacle point of decision as the chart showed a beautiful upward trend channel that was getting narrower and narrower – so a trend line break was immanent

Charts Past and Present

The chart above shows that the Dollar decided to break out to the upside vs the Swiss as the Chart below shows the EUR-USD continued its descent in the existing trend channel.

The USD-CAD took the highroad breaking out of a classic triangle formation and now pausing about 500 pips higher than where she stood two days earlier on Nov 18, 2008

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Click Here to Register for “1st on Forex” The Week Ahead - Every Monday at 12 Noon EDT

Click Here to Watch Live Coverage of the US GDP Sponsored by   Tue - Nov 25

Jerry Furst is Sr Technical and Market Analyst and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN), He is a an active trader, educator, mentor, and trading coach to Select Clients 

Dollar Rally Pauses - Charts Tell The Story

The Dollar may be poised to retrace as several bad numbers are out again so far this week, GM is still teetering on either Bankruptcy or Bailout, and Wednesday is bringing CPIand Housing Data that may poke the charts around a bit. Take a look at the following three 4 Hour charts of the Euro, Loonie, and Swiss pairs versus the US Dollar.

Euro at the Crossroads - Triangles and Trend Chanells (click Above)

USD-CAD - Trend Chanell or Triangle Break (click above)

USD-CHF: Upward Trend Coming to the End of the Road?

 Jim Rogers, “It’s Happening Again!”

The famed trader speaks on the US Dollar, Real Estste Speculation, and more…

 http://www.ft.com/cms/893ac9c8-757e-11dc-b7cb-0000779fd2ac.html?_i_referralObject=929363526&fromSearch=n  From www.FT.com

Click Here to Register for “1st on Forex” The Week Ahead - Every Monday at 12 Noon EDT

Click Here to Watch Live Coverage of the US GDP Sponsored by   Tue - Nov 25

Jerry Furst is Sr Technical and Market Analyst and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN), He is a an active trader, educator, mentor, and trading coach to Select Clients 

Dollar Acting Schizoid Ahead of G20

The “normal” correlations of currency pairs was anything but – as the Euro surged from the 1.2500 range to over 1.2850, while the Pound Sterling lost ground most of the day closing relatively unchanged at around 1.4800. Meanwhile the Carry Trade continues it’s gyrations as the dollar gained ground against the Yen while losing against the Aussie. The Canadian Loonie also lost it’s marbles dropping from 1.2400 to 1.2100, All this within a traders dayze.

Review of the Charts - 3 Days Later

(Above)  Aussie Maintains Consolidation but Tests Support (click on Charts to Enlarge)

(Above)  Dollar - Swiss pair continues upward trend while creating a new lower support line

Above-  Euro makes almost a double bottomand stays within Trend Channel - (click to Enlarge)

 Above - Pound Rides the Lower Trend Channel - Testing Below  (click to Enlarge)

President Bush Addresses Manhattan Institute
The currencies seemed to get reactive around the same time as President Bush addressed the Manhattan Institute mid day. His speech seemed to be a reminder of why the Free Market system must survive despite the changes that must be made to move into the interconnected global markets. Bush may have been alluding to the Bretton Woods agreement when he stated that decisions and changes must be made that, “Better reflect the 21st century not those based in the 1940’s” – which leads me to discuss the….

Historic G20 Meeting starts in Washington
UK Prime Minister Harold Brown has been quoted as saying that decisions over the next few months will reshape our world for the next few decades or more. President elect Obama is sending former secretary of state Albright to monitor the discussions. In my opinion he is missing an opportunity to understand the players and issues – yet his appearance may have been a distraction - so It’s a toss up.

Tensions may run high, and with 20 nations sovereignty on the line - the odds are that this meeting will be a meeting to hold more meetings. UN-less some agreement has already been drafted behind the scenes –

The news on Thursday morning was bleak

New Weekly Jobless Claims were far worse than expected with 516,000 new additions to the unemployment rolls and the US Trade Numbers showed a large drop in exports. But that did not stop the market from surging ahead.

The Good News
The MBA Mortgage Purchase Applications rose 9% and Refinancing applications were up 16% as lower interest rates are filtering down to the buyers that need to sop up the liquidity of the flooded housing market.

Friday Brings Retail Sales and Consumer Sentiment

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Pre Non Farm Payroll Numbers Disapointed early Wednesday as

Interest rate Cuts of 50bps are expected from the BOE and ECB Thursday. No shock to the  charts are expected - but expect the unexpected.

November 5th, 2008 - Nothing but Down

Above - The Major Indexes and the VIX-Volatility Index 5 Minute Charts

Above - USD-JPY 4 Hour Chart breaking Support (click to enlarge)

Finally - the Election of 2008 is Over! - Now What?

Thankfully John McCain allowed Americans to get an early nights sleep Tuesday by conceding defeat - before California and the West coast was even finished voting.

 For me, John McCain and Barack Obama both never resonated beyond mediocre sound bites. IMO – Despite McCain’s pleas for others to help him fight, It looked as if the maverick was relieved to give up. Only in the last few days was Sarah Palin allowed to regain her dignity and throw a few punches for him.  

 The Big Picture - Click to Enlarge

US President Elect Obama makes his acceptance speech Tuesday night

Calls for the lowering of expectations are coming from the four corners of the left.

Now that the media has put the public in a state of mass psychosis, the public will be in need of a “rattle ya jewelry”, John Lennon type statement from the President elect. Reality sank in fast Wednesday as the financial markets gave BO the cold shoulder as the weight of the world began it’s descent.  

Leadership Needed Now for US All – Starting with You!

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