by Jerry Furst – Sr Analyst at www.Investors-Education-Network.com

The Scary Carry Trade

China is concerned that the US Dollar will continue to fall and potentially cause global inflation in commodity prices. Bloomberg is reporting several Chinese officials as being “scared” and concerned about the speculation taking place as some currencies such as the Australian Dollar are being played for the new Carry Trade with the US taking the role of Japan’s easy monetary policy.

Aussie – US Dollar: Seeking Parity?

A Look at the Weekly Chart on the AUD-USD shows that the pair is racing to make a double top with parity as a potential target. The Daily Chart shows a sustained uptrend that just does not want to quit.  When watching the Aussie, traders should be aware of the correlation to Gold. This correlation  may disconnect if Gold decides to overshoot or correct.

Australian Dollar Seeking Parity?

Australian Dollar Seeking Parity?

The AUD-USD Weekly chart above (click to enlarge) shows the 75% retracement has been exceeded and a double top at 98.50 puts parity of the Australian Dollar with the Greenback within the range of possibilities.

The Trend is Your Friend - Until the End!

AUD-USD Daily  chart above (click to enlarge) shows two strong upward trend channel’s making a move that is hard to trade against.

The Week Ahead - gets Started Sunday! Webinar Monday

Lot’s of news in the opening session of the week as New Zealand, Japan and the UK have potential market moving news scheduled to kick start the volatility for the week.

Tune in to my webinar on FX Street with the link at the bottom of this post

Summarized List of Scheduled News for the Week Ahead

For a List of Economic Calendars and times for news events –

Visit and Bookmark

==> http://www.investors-education-network.com/economic-calendar.htm

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US Scheduled News

Monday: Retail Sales - Mfg Survey and Business Inventories

Tuesday: PPI: Producer Price Index - TICS: International In-Out Flows - Industrial production - Housing Market Index

Wednesday:  Housing Starts and CPI: Consumer Price Index

Thursday: US Weekly Jobless claims - Philly Fed - Leading Indicators - Fed Balance Sheet and Money Supply in Late Afternoon

Friday: No Scheduled US News

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International Scheduled News

Sunday: NZD: PPI and JPY: GDP and GBP Home Price Index

Monday: EUR: CPI AUD - RBA Monetary Meeting Minutes

Tuesday: GBP: CPI — EUR Trade Blance

Wednesday: EUR: Current Account — GBP: BoE Minutes — CAD CPI

Thursday: GBP: Retail Sales

Friday: EUR: German PPI

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Live – Weekly Webinars and US GDP report - Click Here to Register

- The “1st on Forex” Week Ahead Mondays at 12 Noon Eastern Click Here

- November 24^th  US GDP Report – Live Coverage Starts 7:30am Eastern Click Here

Jerry Furst is an active trader, educator, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN), He is a Mentor and Trading Coach to Select Clients Click Here for a Free Self Evaluation Survey.

Obama Administration Takes Reins of US Infrastructure

Housing - Insurance - Banking - Automotive Industries all fall under Washington’s control. With eyes on the health care system - education - transportation - and…Don’t Fart - That could be considered as a carbon emission! 

Who wants to be a CEO?

By now most readers have heard that the Obama administration has “ousted” the CEO of General Motors - once the largest and most admired car manufacturer in the world.

G20 Expectations - Set at What Level?

The world has been waiting for what some have coined “April Financial Fools Day” as the International Community will either band together - or split apart.

Protectionism - Protecting Who?

An interesting group of self interests and differing agendas seem to be emerging … As for demonstrations - they are planned throughout London - but who is doing the planning - anywhere?

Sell The Dollar - Buy The ????  - Book

Peter Schiff, author of “Crash Proof” and “The Little Book of Bull Moves in Bear Markets”  gave a lecture this past weekend in Boca Raton at Florida Atlantic University. His predictions of the current crisis have given him quite a following.  During the Q and A session I asked Mr. Schiff what his prediction of what would be the outcome of the G20 meeting. His response was a short and sweet -” It will be a photo op”  - to which I asked a follow up question as to what will be the reaction of people who understand the implications - ” he said ” they will sell the dollar”  - So then what will people buy….. the Q and A shifted to the subject of Gold.

The Week Ahead - Consolidated Economic Calendar

Under “normal” conditions this would be a news worthy week with NFP - unemployment data taking up the weeks speculation - but we all know the numbers will be bad - and the markets have shrugged off bad data lately.

Check out the “1st on Forex” Consolidated Summary of Scheduled News Events for the “Week Ahead”  on the www.ienweb.com site.

USD-JPY 4 Hour Chart - Inverse Head and Shoulder Setting Up?

Jerry Furst  is an active trader, educator, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN), He is a Mentor and Trading Coach to Select Clients  Click Here for a Free Self Evaluation Survey.

AIG -  Diversionary Tactic?

I find it interesting that the general public is up in arms about a measly $100 Million in AIG bonuses - yet practically oblivious to the extra $1.2 Trillion dollars that the Fed has authorized. They have created the “Ouroboros” snake to print the money to swallow the US Treasuries.  

 US Constitution, Capitalism and Confidence

So much is happening so fast that the US Congress is passing 1,000 + page spending bills without reading it - at the request of the new president - Really….

 Claw Back is what everyone is seeking - to just get back to break even, to that point before Bear Stearns was slaughtered, but at what cost?

 If the rules are going to be changed in the middle of the game - constantly - eventually people will not play - then where will we be?

 Breaking contracts and taxing individuals at 90% retroactive is worse than a dangerous precedent - it borders on treason - based on the fact that elected officials are not holding up their oath to support and defend the constitution of the United States - and may be recklessly destroying the foundations of the country.

 Quantitative Easing Spreads - As Currency Wars Get Underway

I was broadcasting live coverage of the The US Federal Reserve on Wednesday when I nearly fell out of my chair to short the dollar. The video of the live broadcast is available on the www.Investors-Education-Network.com site.

Although I discussed the possibility of Quantitative Easing, I assumed that Bernanke would wait at least until after the G20 meeting to pump another Trillion dollars into the economy.

 If all the central banks follow suite - they will effectively be filling the pool with more paper.

 Budget - Unsustainable?

On Friday the Congressional Budget Office told the Obama administration that the current level of debt, budget, and spending is “Unsustainable”. The administrations press secretary dismissed the warning with a analogy of trying to pick the basketball playoffs five years out.

 From where I sit -  that’s the problem… I believe that too many people,  that should know better, are treating this as if it was just a game… Well - maybe it is…

  Reservations on Reserve Currency?

The US Dollar suffered it’s worst week since 1985, and the Euro staged it’s best ever gain since it’s 1999 inception. Gold surged on the Quantitative Easing surprise, and some analysts expect Gold to retest the $1,000 mark. Is this the end of the Greenback?

 Signs Earlier in the Week?

The currencies showed no reaction to fundamental surprises on Monday and Tuesday.

 TICS Data - Amazingly Horrible - Setup for FOMC?

The Treasury Inflows were astoundingly weak with a negative $43 Billion versus expectations of a positive $44 Billion. Was this a factor in the QE decision?

 New Housing Starts??  - Signaling a Real Estate Bottom?

New construction unexpectedly jumped  up 22% versus an expected negative -3.4%. Where and who is building houses?

 The glut of unsold property has not disappeared, so who and how are new housing starts getting underway? Are the government accountants beginning to start counting the boxes under the bridges? Let’s wait for the revisions next month. Let’s see what the revisions look like next month!

 The Week Ahead - Lot’s of Scheduled News and High Level Meetings

Break out your popcorn and settle in your favorite seat as Ben Bernanke and Tim Geithner will be testifying on financial regulation reform before House Financial Services Committee in Washington

 Meanwhile Back at the Bank - FDIC

Market News International on Friday reported that Sheil Bair - Chairman of the FDIC stated that…. Although the FDIC deposit insurance funds is heading to zero, she’s confident it will be replenished. as the long term outlook for insured banks is “very good”

 This as Ben Bernanke on Friday addressed the Community Banks and reassured them that opportunities are available and that they need to continue lending. As for “too big to fail”, Bernanke indicated oversight is needed - which drew large applause. Bernanke said the Fed will support housing market and FDIC for now, but will taper off and withdraw.

 Tune in to the “1^st on Forex” Webinars on FX Street

Register for The Week Ahead Calendar and Webinar Every Monday at 16:00 GMT - Click Here

and Live Webinar Coverage of  the US GDP Report  Click here to Register and Tune in Thursday March 26 at 7:30 Eastern US time (11:30 GMT)  

Jerry Furst  is an active trader, educator, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN), He is a Mentor and Trading Coach to Select Clients  Click Here for a Free Self Evaluation Survey.

 Swiss Secrecy Laws Soon to be Swiss Cheese?

The Financial Times has been putting the Currencies on the front page as of the last few days with focus on the Swiss Franc being devalued by the Swiss National Bank.  Peter Garnham at the FT quoted Chris Turner at ING as saying, “Let the currency wars begin.”

More Interventions on the Way?

With the G20 now bubbling up to a quick boil - we better hope that these G’s get it right. It seems that common sense is everywhere but where it is needed most when it comes to stimulus and waking up and/or firing the regulators.

 USD-CHF 1 Hour Chart - Raising the White Flag  

But will the Intervention Hold?

 USD-CHF - Daily Chart - It’s Just Another Retracement

 Tune in to the “1^st on Forex” Webinars on FX Street

Register for The Week Ahead Calendar and Webinar Every Monday at 16:00 GMT - Click Here

and Live Webinar Coverage of FOMC US Interest Rate Announcement (As if they are going to change the rates or say something we don’t know?)  Click here to Register and Tune in Wednesday March 18 at 17:30 GMT)

Jerry Furst  is an active trader, educator, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN), He is a Mentor and Trading Coach to Select Clients  Click Here for a Free Self Evaluation Survey.

Chart Pattern Review - 48 Hours Later 

Two days ago I posted several charts showing some nice chart patterns - indicating to me a 

consolidation was ready to breakout and I labeled the post “Pause Before the Storm” 

Let’s look at the charts side by side now.

 USD-CAD 4 Hour Chart — 300 Pip Triangle Break Out (click to Enlarge)

 EUR-USD 30 Min Chart — Over 400 Pip Trend Channel Break (click to Enlarge)

USD-CHF 2 Hour Chart - Triangle Break - 200 Pips (click to Enlarge)

The above charts are great examples of waiting for High Probability setups on multiple pairs

all setting up at the same time.

The Week Ahead - Calendar and Webinars

 Summarized Scheduled Economic Calendar - Click Here

***  Attend A Free Live Market Coverage and Technical Analysis Webinars ***

Click Here to Register for this weeks “1st on Forex” The Week Ahead Webinar  - Every Monday at 12 Noon EDT -

FOMC Live Webinar Tue December 16  - Click Here to Register

Jerry Furst  is an active trader, educator, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN), He is a Mentor and Trading Coach to Select Clients  Click Here for a Free Self Evaluation Survey.

 US Dollar Stays Steady Despite Bad News

The US Trade Deficit jumped almost 6% and Jobless claims were larger than expected, However the US Dollar stayed stable and gave up little ground. The Fed Funds Futures Rates are pointing to a possible interest rate cut which may cut the Dollars recent gains.

Oil Testing Support at $100

OPEC is threatening production cuts while Hurricane Ike is threatening the Gulf of Mexico’s Oil facilities and shoreline. One would expect the US Dollar to drop with such news - However, this is further proof that the correlation between the US Dollar and Oil is strong.

FX Market Update Video for September 11th 2008 with Fundamental and Technical Analysis

Too Big To Fall - Too Big To Fail?

This morning MSNBC re-broadcast the terror of September 11th as the world was changed by a small group of overgrown adolescents that were in desperate need of finding some virgins….. Meanwhile - CNBC barely mentioned the anniversary - but seems to be delighting in the destruction of other financial firms. Seems as if too big to fail needs to be matched with the Bigger they are the harder they fall.

CNBC Vultures Pick on Lehman Brothers while the world looks on…

The image of a “pitbull” seems to fit the media these days, as certain shows seem to latch onto a story and refuse to let go until the life of the story is completely extinguished.  At CNBC - there seems to be a fixation with seeing Lehman Brothers extinguished - headed by Charlie Gasparino.  But almost the entire staff seems to be feeding a frenzy of fear to anyone that happens to tune in for more than 5 minutes. 

 Jerry Furst is an active trader, educator, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN), He is a Mentor and Trading Coach to Select Clients  Click Here for a Free Self Evaluation Survey.