This week may see more trading volatility again - as we have seen in the past. Last Weeks dismal unemployment numbers ahead of the July 4^th Holiday gave a boost to the US Dollar as money came out of equities and into the safe refuge of the “Holding Tank” of the Currency.

July 6 - 10 2009 - US Calendar

Not much news scheduled until the end of the week.

7-6: Monday - ISM Mfg Index and some Treasury Auctions

7-7: Tuesday - US Treasury Strips

7-8: Wednesday - 10 yr auction and Consumer Credit Report

7-9: Thursday - Weekly Jobless Claims - Wholesale Trade

7-10: Friday - Trade Data - Import-Export Prices - Consumer Sentiment

 July 6 - 10 2009 - International Calendar - Highlights

Interest Rate Announcements from Australia, and the UK, Employment Data from Canada - Stay Tuned

Yen Gains on the Majors

The Yen has made significant gains against the US Dollar, Euro and Pound as Asian stocks were falling as the week gets under way.

Jerry Furst  is an active trader, educator, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN), He is a Mentor and Trading Coach to Select Clients  Click Here for a Free Self Evaluation Survey.

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By Jerry Furst - Sr Analyst: 1st on Forex -  Investors Education Network

Mind Your Head - Bank Stress Test Leaves No Pain!

The US equity markets continue to look bullish and some are calling the Bears out for their final slaughter - The long awaited, delayed, and leaked Bank “Stress Test” hit the market with a whimper on Thursday.

The results - 10 of the19 “Too Big to Fail” banks will need about $75 Billion USD to shore up an estimated total of $599 Billion in losses.

S&P 500 Daily - as the chart above shows the 200 MA on the S&P 500 within tagging range - also note the previous years “Sell in May and Go Away” working quite well. Who’s getting ready to clock their profits and take off for the summer?

The Euro has been trending higher and a review of my posts of last week show the Head and Shoulder Pattern in play with an ultimate pattern target of 1.3750 only 100 pips away as of this writing - May 10^th  - 22:30 EST

EUR-USD - The two charts above show last weeks post compared to where we are now. (click to enlarge charts) - Nice trend in play

Loonie Looms Large - Back to Parity?

The long consolidation on the USD-CAD that began back in October of 2008 is over! The Daily and 4 Hour charts posted here show a beautiful Head and Shoulder breakout with strong momentum to the downside.

USD-CAD The above charts from April 19 and Today May 11^th show that there is potentially another 300 pips to go before the Head and Shoulder pattern plays out at around the 1.1200 range. (click to enlarge charts)

The Week Ahead - Calendar and Webinar

US News to Watch for this week includes:

Tuesday - International Trade and Treasury Budget

Thursday - PPI - Weekly Jobless Claims

Friday - CPI - TICS Data - Consumer Sentiment

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Jerry Furst  is an active trader, educator, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN), He is a Mentor and Trading Coach to Select Clients  Click Here for a Free Self Evaluation Survey.

US Congress Returns to Work after “Santelli” Tea Parties

The Sunday morning news shows featured pundits and politicians squabbling about the “astro-turf” grass roots protests last week - and giving CNBC’s Rick Santelli the credit for “re-starting” the US “revolution”.  It is interesting to watch as the mainstream media attempts  to marginalize and dismiss the growing anger of the general taxpaying public aka: “the silent majority”. <– Watch this Spot!

Meanwhile - the US Congress Returns to Work

Isn’t it amazing how one political side calls the other “uncompromising” and then does exactly what they accuse of the other! A case in point is the unilateral “Cap and Trade” proposal. Democrat Henry Waxman says he will not compromise on the bill despite the obvious criticism that this would only force the creation of pollution - and jobs - outside of the US borders.

Euro - In the Zone ?

The ECB is squabbling about lowering rates to Zero - yet their continues to be open discussion of taking extra ordinary measures… Someting else to watch…

A Look at the Charts

The EUR-USD and USD-CHF normally display a direct inverse correlation.

A look at the Daily Charts above (click to Enlarge) of both of these may dispel any Euro strengthening for the time being as the USD-CHF seems to be trending higher and the Euro is Testing Support.

USD-CAD - Triangle in Play?

USD-CAD April 19, 2009 and Previous Post from April 12, 2009 (click to Enlarge) 

My blog post last week on April 12 showed the Canadian Dollar testing support with a nicetriangle pattern that has re-appeared. That support was shattered the next day and the USD-CAD seems to be grinding it’s way further south for now.   

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Canadian Dollar Poised for a Move?

At the end of last year the Canadian Dollar Seemed ready to retake it’s ground.

It appears as if there may be another attempt as the current Daily chart I showing a very strong trend line ready to “Bounce or Break”

Triangles Past and Present - Second Try?

USD-CAD – (above)  Potential for a drop? Chart on the Right is previous Triangle from February that  (click to Enlarge)

Head and Shoulder Pattern Completed on EUR-GBP

The 4 hour charts above on the Euro-Sterling above shows the Head and Shoulder Pattern that “grinded” it’s way slowly to completion – dropping from 0.9150 to 0.8960.  Chart on the Right is the original chart posted on April 3, 2009 when price was initially testing support(click to Enlarge)

Jerry Furst  is an active trader, educator, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN), He is a Mentor and Trading Coach to Select Clients  Click Here for a Free Self Evaluation Survey.

Obama Re Affirms US Leadership The world can breathe a sigh of relief as it appears as if some sanity has prevailed and presented itself in the form of the G20 Communiqué.

Read All About The New World Order - As it is forming at the Official G20 Website http://www.g20.org/pub_communiques.aspx

Financial Markets Rejoice The equity markets soared as it learned of the success of the London Summit and Barack Obama gave a hopeful press conference that showed his leadership and “Toast Master” skills.

Central Banks Selling Gold  Disclosure that the World Bank - IMF and the Central Banks have been granted authority to sell Gold - this will allow the Central Banks to raise capital as they print more cash….and….. Artificially hold down the price of Gold by selling the reserves.

Another Week - Another Trillion - or Three!

The G20 Leaders pledged 1 Trillion Dollars to help developing countries and to support the IMF and…Meanwhile Back in Washington - Obama Budget Passes $3 Trillion Dollar Budget

FASB - Mark to Market passed but discussion is that this accounting rule change may prevent the PPIP program announced last week from getting off the ground. But that’s another story….

Meanwhile - Back at the Currency Charts 

Euro - Sterling 4 Hour Chart is setting up nice with a Head and Shoulder Pattern and …  

 The 30 Minute Chart is sporting a nice down trend channel.

 Jerry Furst  is an active trader, educator, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN), He is a Mentor and Trading Coach to Select Clients  Click Here for a Free Self Evaluation Survey.

AIG -  Diversionary Tactic?

I find it interesting that the general public is up in arms about a measly $100 Million in AIG bonuses - yet practically oblivious to the extra $1.2 Trillion dollars that the Fed has authorized. They have created the “Ouroboros” snake to print the money to swallow the US Treasuries.  

 US Constitution, Capitalism and Confidence

So much is happening so fast that the US Congress is passing 1,000 + page spending bills without reading it - at the request of the new president - Really….

 Claw Back is what everyone is seeking - to just get back to break even, to that point before Bear Stearns was slaughtered, but at what cost?

 If the rules are going to be changed in the middle of the game - constantly - eventually people will not play - then where will we be?

 Breaking contracts and taxing individuals at 90% retroactive is worse than a dangerous precedent - it borders on treason - based on the fact that elected officials are not holding up their oath to support and defend the constitution of the United States - and may be recklessly destroying the foundations of the country.

 Quantitative Easing Spreads - As Currency Wars Get Underway

I was broadcasting live coverage of the The US Federal Reserve on Wednesday when I nearly fell out of my chair to short the dollar. The video of the live broadcast is available on the www.Investors-Education-Network.com site.

Although I discussed the possibility of Quantitative Easing, I assumed that Bernanke would wait at least until after the G20 meeting to pump another Trillion dollars into the economy.

 If all the central banks follow suite - they will effectively be filling the pool with more paper.

 Budget - Unsustainable?

On Friday the Congressional Budget Office told the Obama administration that the current level of debt, budget, and spending is “Unsustainable”. The administrations press secretary dismissed the warning with a analogy of trying to pick the basketball playoffs five years out.

 From where I sit -  that’s the problem… I believe that too many people,  that should know better, are treating this as if it was just a game… Well - maybe it is…

  Reservations on Reserve Currency?

The US Dollar suffered it’s worst week since 1985, and the Euro staged it’s best ever gain since it’s 1999 inception. Gold surged on the Quantitative Easing surprise, and some analysts expect Gold to retest the $1,000 mark. Is this the end of the Greenback?

 Signs Earlier in the Week?

The currencies showed no reaction to fundamental surprises on Monday and Tuesday.

 TICS Data - Amazingly Horrible - Setup for FOMC?

The Treasury Inflows were astoundingly weak with a negative $43 Billion versus expectations of a positive $44 Billion. Was this a factor in the QE decision?

 New Housing Starts??  - Signaling a Real Estate Bottom?

New construction unexpectedly jumped  up 22% versus an expected negative -3.4%. Where and who is building houses?

 The glut of unsold property has not disappeared, so who and how are new housing starts getting underway? Are the government accountants beginning to start counting the boxes under the bridges? Let’s wait for the revisions next month. Let’s see what the revisions look like next month!

 The Week Ahead - Lot’s of Scheduled News and High Level Meetings

Break out your popcorn and settle in your favorite seat as Ben Bernanke and Tim Geithner will be testifying on financial regulation reform before House Financial Services Committee in Washington

 Meanwhile Back at the Bank - FDIC

Market News International on Friday reported that Sheil Bair - Chairman of the FDIC stated that…. Although the FDIC deposit insurance funds is heading to zero, she’s confident it will be replenished. as the long term outlook for insured banks is “very good”

 This as Ben Bernanke on Friday addressed the Community Banks and reassured them that opportunities are available and that they need to continue lending. As for “too big to fail”, Bernanke indicated oversight is needed - which drew large applause. Bernanke said the Fed will support housing market and FDIC for now, but will taper off and withdraw.

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Jerry Furst  is an active trader, educator, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN), He is a Mentor and Trading Coach to Select Clients  Click Here for a Free Self Evaluation Survey.

Lots of Scheduled News on the Calendar

Interest Rates Around the Globe Expected To Drop

Australia, Canada, The UK, and the Euro Zone are scheduled and expected to lower interest rates this week. The question is, are the moves already baked into the charts?

Non-Farm Payroll - Unemployment Data Due Friday

Employment data may come in at historically horrendous levels. Wednesday data from ADP and Challenger, and Thursday from Monster.com will lead up to Friday’s Non-Farm Payroll report. Wrapping up the week is the US consumer credit report at 15:00 Friday.

European Union? No Help for Eastern Europe. The Euro continues to slide against the US Dollar as witnessed by the chart below. Note the post from Febrauary 27th.

EUR-USD - 60 Min chart - Beautiful Triangle Pattern continues to play out.

Summarized Economic Calendar and Weekly Webinar

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Jerry Furst  is an active trader, educator, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN), He is a Mentor and Trading Coach to Select Clients  Click Here for a Free Self Evaluation Survey.

 By Jerry Furst- Sr. Analyst “1st on Forex” www.Investors-Education-Network.com

 The Bizarre Gets More Momentum

- Are you no longer impressed with Jaw Dropping Jobless Claims?

- Tired of Hearing about Housing and Mortgage Issues?

-  Not Interested in Nationalization of Banks Around the Globe?

-  Do you find Zero Percent Interest Rates - UN Interesting?

-  When 1,000 pages of legislation with Trillions of Dollars for ”Couch Warming”….. I mean “Stimulus Initiatives” becomes so boring that the largest spending bill in the history of mankind gets passed without even being read and “Cram Down” becomes part of everyday business jargon….Well Inquiring minds might like to know who’s been cheating on their taxes in Swiss Bank Accounts…

 The New Transparency - Hiding of Assets Overseas Comes to and End?

As the Global Financial Markets Continue with the Negative Feedback Loop. - We needed more signs that things are changing - Now the Rich and Famous may be getting nervous as Swiss Bank Giant UBS has come to an agreement to disclose clients in the United States that opened bogus business entities to avoid paying US Taxes.   

Slap on the Wrist for UBS ?

Word of an agreement between UBS and the IRS came quickly Wednesday, with a mere $780 million dollar fine. Come on guys, not even a couple of Billion? These days a few hundred million is government chump change.

Just an Honest Mistake? - Who’s Really on the UBS List?

According to the Associated Press, Devlin Barrett’s article goes on to state that the IRS is calling on tax cheats to turn themselves in. My question is will they make the entire list public, and what about all the other tax cheats, like the Treasury Secretary - Perhaps Tim has an account over there?  I guess all they will need to do is say they made and honest mistake.

Euro Head and Shoulder - Trend Line Break In Play

EUR-USD Daily Chart  - (Click Chart to Enlarge)

Last Week I pointed out this Head and Shoulder pattern on the Euro that was poised to break the neckline. I received comments that his was not a Head and Shoulders, to which I reply - It’s a strong Support Line no matter what you say… And it is now broken. Where it goes from here, Who knows - the fundamentalists will point the blame on Eastern European Banks, or some other scapegoat if it continues down… If the Euro strengthens, It won’t be because of Trichet.

Pound Sterling Consolidating against the Dollar

GBP-USD  4 Hour Chart  - (Click Chart to Enlarge)

The Pound is Poised for something as this chart shows it has gone sideways

long enough.

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By Jerry Furst- Sr Analyst “1st on Forex” www.Investors-Education-Network.com

Dr Evil from Austin Powers only asked for a few hundred million

The good news may be that with this much desperation, perhaps we are closing in on the bottom. A test and bounce off of the November lows for the S&P would be nice… Let’s face it Two Trillion Dollars can go a long way – at least it used to… You just think that they would know what they are going to do with it!

On Tuesday Barack Obama fielded questions at a Town Hall meeting in Fort Meyers Florida – by a homeless woman looking for her own bathroom, an unemployed man who was looking for his full paycheck to be provided by unemployment insurance, and a part time McDonalds employee looking to get a “real job” as a broadcasting disk jockey…

US Treasury to “Stress Test” Banks

What does that really mean? The US Treasury Secretary stated it was to be interpreted as a medical term. Does this imply that the smaller regional banks – (the ones that do not have Government medical insurance – the ones small enough to fail) will be subject to the stress and strains of the market – and allowed to hit the floor?

Pass the Preparation “H” Please

Tim Geithner, Ben Bernanke, The heads of the US Banking System, The US Congress, the New President Barack Obama, The Media, The late night pundits, the bloggers, and the general public - We All have been sitting in the “Hot Seat”

Don’t Smirk Europe – The G7 Meets this week – We will pass you the tube!

Accusations of Nationalism and Protectionism is flying across Europe. Puttingthe Euro and the European Union on a stress test of it’s own… can this 10 year old, un-ratified union stand the strain?

My friends… as Jon Stewart on the Daily Show Stated…. “We are ———-“!

In the Mean Time…. Gold and the Dollar

The US Dollar is still a place of safe harbor – for now – But Gold is Inching upwards towards $1,000.

Gold ETF - GLD Daily Chart - (Click to Enlarge) Pushing Through Resistance with a nice upward trend channel.

EUR-USD Daily Chart (Click to Enlage) Head and Shoulder Pattern - maybe - maybe not - but theer’s a nice supporting trend line.

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Jerry Furst is an active trader, educator, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN), He is a Mentor and Trading Coach to Select Clients

Click Here for a Free Self Evaluation Survey.

By Jerry Furst- Sr Analyst “1st on Forex” www.Investors-Education-Network.com

Reality on the Brink!

The global financial markets seem to be drifting in and out of a surreal stream of headlines underlined by facts that boggle any rational mind that attempts to seriously grapple with the facts of what is happenning.

It’s All a Matter of Perpsective

To illustrate where we are today in comparison to 1995 - It is almost exactly 14 years since the notorious “Rogue Trader”  - Nick Leeson sank Baring’s - the Queen’s Bank, with an untimely short straddle.  A pillar of the British Empire’s financial system for over 200 years crumbled under the “stupendous” loss of: $1.4 Billion USD (827 Million -GBP)  Staggering numbers 1,400,000,000.

Today we talk about Hundreds of Billions…. and we don’t even know where the money is going! Except maybe for some Roman shades and Victorian furniture in John Thain’s office. I just don’t get it.

Pound Gets No Reprise

GBP-USD 4 Hour Chart (click to enlarge) shows Head and shoulder pattern paused with a downward trend channel intact.

Euro Continues Slide vs Dollar

EUR-USD 4 Hour chart (click to enlarge) shows Trend Channel intact since December 2008. The Financial Times reports bank deposits at the ECB were 72.7bn Euros lower at 111.4bn

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Jerry Furst  is an active trader, educator, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN), He is a Mentor and Trading Coach to Select Clients 
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