Big Week – and Volatility Ahead – CIT Chapter 11?

by Jerry Furst – Sr Analyst  - Investors Education Network.com  

Last Week the  VIX closed over 30 spiking to an intraday high of over 31 on Friday with the DOW dropping 250 points and the S&P 500 dropping over 30 points and the S&P 500 breaking trend line support.

Looking at chart patterns is often called an art and a science. Eventually technical traders will build up a photographic memory of patterns and quickly recognize similarities.  I present to you an example.

The Daily charts of the Euro and the Weekly chart of the VIX  (S&P 500 Volatility Index) may give technical traders time to pause over the next two images I show.  

Chart Pattern Similarities - Euro and Vix - Sr Analyst - Jerry Furst - IEN - Click to Enlarge

Image 1 Above – On the Left – EURO – Daily Chart of March 18, 2009

The Past May Help Us Determine The FutureSimilar Patterns  - Note the Triangle – Failing Head and Shoulders and Trend Line Break which is practically identical to the current Weekly chart of the VIX as of October 30, 2009 – on the Right

Euro-USD Daily - October 30, 2009 - Shows Failed Head and Shoulder Pattern

Image 2 – Euro-USD Daily - October 30, 2009 – Shows the Failed Head and Shoulder completed – extending above and Beyond the Head and Shoulder Pattern. If this pattern is to be repeated on the VIX – Look Out Below!

Lots of News Scheduled as VIX Picks Up

Currency traders may want to consider shifting to tactics and strategies that work best in high volatility markets. Correlations between the equity markets and Forex may fluctuate if fundamentals get in the way.

Last weeks move up in the VIX and triple digit losses on the DOW are looming large over an extended equity market. (Click here to register and tune  into my webinar  on FX Street at 12 Noon Eastern (GMT -5)

Wow – What a Week Ahead Coming Up!

Monday: – Watch the Asian Markets into the US Open. us Data Includes Home Sales  - ISM and Construction Spending.

Tuesday: GBP: PMI , and US Consumer Confidence

Wednesday: – FOMC announcement - leading into Fridays NFP Employment Report

Thursday: BOE and ECB Central Bank Announcements – watch for signs of policy change statements. US Weekly Jobless claims and Fed Balance Sheet data. (click here to register and tune into my webinar on FX Street starting at 1:30pm Eastern (GMT -5)

Friday: NFP-Non Farm Payroll – US Trade and Consumer Credit Data

Traders Be Aware This Sunday – CIT Chapter 11?

CIT Group is reportedly ready to file a “prepackaged bankruptcy plan”. Sources indicate this may occur as early as this Sunday Nov 1. If Chapter 11 is filed – it would qualify as the 5^th largest bankruptcy filing ever ($71 Billion in Assets) in the US.

CNBC’s David Faber broke the news on Friday afternoon Oct 30, and he speculated that preferred shareholders are likely to be “wiped out”. These “preferred Shareholders include the US Taxpayer that had injected $2.3 Billion.

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Jerry Furst  is an active trader, educator, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN), He is a Mentor and Trading Coach to Select Clients  Click Here for a Free Self Evaluation Survey.

Text Watch from the Fed - Watch Live Webinar Coverage

Ben Bernanke and team are widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged

But the reaction will likely take place about 5 minutes after the text statement is digested.

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This comes a week after Bernanke went out on the limb by stating that the recession in the US is probably over and that we have seen the bottom. He then heads out to Pittsburgh for the G20 meeting

Triangle and Inverse Head and Shoulders on the Aussie – Yen

Sept 22, 2009 Aussie Yen shows a Triangle and Inverse Head and Shoulder on the 4 hour chart as we await the FOMC interest rate - policy announcement (Click to Enlarge)

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Jerry Furst  is an active trader, educator, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN), He is a Mentor and Trading Coach to Select Clients  Click Here for a Free Self Evaluation Survey.

Search for Safe Havens - Dollar Again?

Although the US Dollar has been under pressure for the past few months - Is it time for a greenback rebound? The search for safe haven leaves little hiding places. Gold has now settled comfortably above the $1,000 mark and predictions of $1,250 are now being bantered around.

Pound Sterling Technical Analysis - September 19, 2009

The Sterling -Dollar and Sterling Yen are showing some bearish patterns on the Daily charts.

Pound Sterling - US Dollar - Daily Chart September 18, 2009

GBP-USD Daily Chart shows a “Head and Shoulder” pattern nearing completion with potential targets after the Neck Line is Hit. (Click to enlarge)

Pound Yen - Daily Chart - September 18, 2009

GBP-JPY Daily Chart has more room to go down before completeing this pattern - but this daily chart might be viewed as bearish to aggressive traders of the Sterling Yen pair. (Click to enlarge)

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Jerry Furst  is an active trader, educator, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN), He is a Mentor and Trading Coach to Select Clients  Click Here for a Free Self Evaluation Survey.

Watching Paint Dry – Continuing Consolidation?

Interest Rate and Trichet Watch

As the Dollar Index slides to fresh lows, the Pound and the Euro have been painting a sideways market ahead of the BoE and ECB announcements tomorrow. Jean Claud Trichet will have his press conference as the US releases Weekly Jobless Claims, and then the Non Farm Payroll on Friday.

It is being hypothesized that the FOMC will allow the Treasury purchase programs to expire in September, and the $1.23 Trillion of mortgage backed securities and other programs may be left to expire at the end of the year – so reports Bloomberg’s Steve Mathews, quoting Laurence Meyer of Macroeconomic Advisers.

The FOMC interest rate announcement on Wed August 12  and I will be conducting a Live Webinar on FX Street – Click Below  to register – Free!

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Jerry Furst  is an active trader, educator, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN), He is a Mentor and Trading Coach to Select Clients  Click Here for a Free Self Evaluation Survey.

Lots of Scheduled News On and Off the Calendar

FOMC Statement Awaits on Wednesday

Although no interest rate change is expected, the accompanying statement from Bernanke and the Fed will be scrutinized for signs of Future Policy Insights. Expectations for a Rate Hike by December and insights on the Quantitative Easing policy may have market moving consequences.

Live Coverage - 1st on Forex Webinar will be broadcast on FX Street - register below.

Economic Contraction Continues

On Thursday the US GDP will be report on the current economic status. The current consensus number is expected to show -5.7% growth.

Live Coverage - 1st on Forex Webinar will be broadcast on FX Street - register below.

Euro Under Pressure?

EURGBP - 60 Min Chart Above (click to enlarge) Sports a Head and Shoulder pattern in play and grinding towards completion of the pattern target of approx 0.842

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Jerry Furst  is an active trader, educator, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN), He is a Mentor and Trading Coach to Select Clients  Click Here for a Free Self Evaluation Survey.

US Congress Returns to Work after “Santelli” Tea Parties

The Sunday morning news shows featured pundits and politicians squabbling about the “astro-turf” grass roots protests last week - and giving CNBC’s Rick Santelli the credit for “re-starting” the US “revolution”.  It is interesting to watch as the mainstream media attempts  to marginalize and dismiss the growing anger of the general taxpaying public aka: “the silent majority”. <– Watch this Spot!

Meanwhile - the US Congress Returns to Work

Isn’t it amazing how one political side calls the other “uncompromising” and then does exactly what they accuse of the other! A case in point is the unilateral “Cap and Trade” proposal. Democrat Henry Waxman says he will not compromise on the bill despite the obvious criticism that this would only force the creation of pollution - and jobs - outside of the US borders.

Euro - In the Zone ?

The ECB is squabbling about lowering rates to Zero - yet their continues to be open discussion of taking extra ordinary measures… Someting else to watch…

A Look at the Charts

The EUR-USD and USD-CHF normally display a direct inverse correlation.

A look at the Daily Charts above (click to Enlarge) of both of these may dispel any Euro strengthening for the time being as the USD-CHF seems to be trending higher and the Euro is Testing Support.

USD-CAD - Triangle in Play?

USD-CAD April 19, 2009 and Previous Post from April 12, 2009 (click to Enlarge) 

My blog post last week on April 12 showed the Canadian Dollar testing support with a nicetriangle pattern that has re-appeared. That support was shattered the next day and the USD-CAD seems to be grinding it’s way further south for now.   

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Jerry Furst  is an active trader, educator, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN), He is a Mentor and Trading Coach to Select Clients  Click Here for a Free Self Evaluation Survey.

AIG -  Diversionary Tactic?

I find it interesting that the general public is up in arms about a measly $100 Million in AIG bonuses - yet practically oblivious to the extra $1.2 Trillion dollars that the Fed has authorized. They have created the “Ouroboros” snake to print the money to swallow the US Treasuries.  

 US Constitution, Capitalism and Confidence

So much is happening so fast that the US Congress is passing 1,000 + page spending bills without reading it - at the request of the new president - Really….

 Claw Back is what everyone is seeking - to just get back to break even, to that point before Bear Stearns was slaughtered, but at what cost?

 If the rules are going to be changed in the middle of the game - constantly - eventually people will not play - then where will we be?

 Breaking contracts and taxing individuals at 90% retroactive is worse than a dangerous precedent - it borders on treason - based on the fact that elected officials are not holding up their oath to support and defend the constitution of the United States - and may be recklessly destroying the foundations of the country.

 Quantitative Easing Spreads - As Currency Wars Get Underway

I was broadcasting live coverage of the The US Federal Reserve on Wednesday when I nearly fell out of my chair to short the dollar. The video of the live broadcast is available on the www.Investors-Education-Network.com site.

Although I discussed the possibility of Quantitative Easing, I assumed that Bernanke would wait at least until after the G20 meeting to pump another Trillion dollars into the economy.

 If all the central banks follow suite - they will effectively be filling the pool with more paper.

 Budget - Unsustainable?

On Friday the Congressional Budget Office told the Obama administration that the current level of debt, budget, and spending is “Unsustainable”. The administrations press secretary dismissed the warning with a analogy of trying to pick the basketball playoffs five years out.

 From where I sit -  that’s the problem… I believe that too many people,  that should know better, are treating this as if it was just a game… Well - maybe it is…

  Reservations on Reserve Currency?

The US Dollar suffered it’s worst week since 1985, and the Euro staged it’s best ever gain since it’s 1999 inception. Gold surged on the Quantitative Easing surprise, and some analysts expect Gold to retest the $1,000 mark. Is this the end of the Greenback?

 Signs Earlier in the Week?

The currencies showed no reaction to fundamental surprises on Monday and Tuesday.

 TICS Data - Amazingly Horrible - Setup for FOMC?

The Treasury Inflows were astoundingly weak with a negative $43 Billion versus expectations of a positive $44 Billion. Was this a factor in the QE decision?

 New Housing Starts??  - Signaling a Real Estate Bottom?

New construction unexpectedly jumped  up 22% versus an expected negative -3.4%. Where and who is building houses?

 The glut of unsold property has not disappeared, so who and how are new housing starts getting underway? Are the government accountants beginning to start counting the boxes under the bridges? Let’s wait for the revisions next month. Let’s see what the revisions look like next month!

 The Week Ahead - Lot’s of Scheduled News and High Level Meetings

Break out your popcorn and settle in your favorite seat as Ben Bernanke and Tim Geithner will be testifying on financial regulation reform before House Financial Services Committee in Washington

 Meanwhile Back at the Bank - FDIC

Market News International on Friday reported that Sheil Bair - Chairman of the FDIC stated that…. Although the FDIC deposit insurance funds is heading to zero, she’s confident it will be replenished. as the long term outlook for insured banks is “very good”

 This as Ben Bernanke on Friday addressed the Community Banks and reassured them that opportunities are available and that they need to continue lending. As for “too big to fail”, Bernanke indicated oversight is needed - which drew large applause. Bernanke said the Fed will support housing market and FDIC for now, but will taper off and withdraw.

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Jerry Furst  is an active trader, educator, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN), He is a Mentor and Trading Coach to Select Clients  Click Here for a Free Self Evaluation Survey.

By Jerry Furst- Sr Analyst “1st on Forex” www.Investors-Education-Network.com

No Surprise Expected - “Jawboning” Ahead

With rates effectively at 0-0.25% Bernanke and the Fed can really only “Jawbone” at this time. Rumors and fears of Quantitative easing seem to be the “built-in” expectations.

Charts Not Showing thier Hand

A scan of the charts shows nothing “exciting” as price is likely settling in for the FOMC announcement at 2:15 EST.

GBP-USD 4 Hour chart(click to enlarge)

The Pound-Dollar had been sporting a Head and Shoulder pattern in progress, however, the chart above shows price coming back up to resistance at the neckline.

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Jerry Furs is an active trader, educator, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN), He is a Mentor and Trading Coach to Select Clients Click Here for a Free Self Evaluation Survey.

Bens Last Hurrah?

After Tuesday’s meeting - The next scheduled FOMC meeting is January 28, will there be a new Fed Chairman at the helm, or will Bernanke be held over? Will there be any more rate cuts available at that time? There are expectations that rates could be lowered to 0.25% - making the US rates even lower than Japan.

The Dollar Continues to Give Up Ground

AUD-USD 30 Minute Chart (Click to Enlarge)

Continuing Up Trend Channel

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Jerry Furst  is an active trader, educator, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN), He is a Mentor and Trading Coach to Select Clients  Click Here for a Free Self Evaluation Survey.