by Jerry Furst – Sr Analyst at www.Investors-Education-Network.com

The Scary Carry Trade

China is concerned that the US Dollar will continue to fall and potentially cause global inflation in commodity prices. Bloomberg is reporting several Chinese officials as being “scared” and concerned about the speculation taking place as some currencies such as the Australian Dollar are being played for the new Carry Trade with the US taking the role of Japan’s easy monetary policy.

Aussie – US Dollar: Seeking Parity?

A Look at the Weekly Chart on the AUD-USD shows that the pair is racing to make a double top with parity as a potential target. The Daily Chart shows a sustained uptrend that just does not want to quit.  When watching the Aussie, traders should be aware of the correlation to Gold. This correlation  may disconnect if Gold decides to overshoot or correct.

Australian Dollar Seeking Parity?

Australian Dollar Seeking Parity?

The AUD-USD Weekly chart above (click to enlarge) shows the 75% retracement has been exceeded and a double top at 98.50 puts parity of the Australian Dollar with the Greenback within the range of possibilities.

The Trend is Your Friend - Until the End!

AUD-USD Daily  chart above (click to enlarge) shows two strong upward trend channel’s making a move that is hard to trade against.

The Week Ahead - gets Started Sunday! Webinar Monday

Lot’s of news in the opening session of the week as New Zealand, Japan and the UK have potential market moving news scheduled to kick start the volatility for the week.

Tune in to my webinar on FX Street with the link at the bottom of this post

Summarized List of Scheduled News for the Week Ahead

For a List of Economic Calendars and times for news events –

Visit and Bookmark

==> http://www.investors-education-network.com/economic-calendar.htm

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US Scheduled News

Monday: Retail Sales - Mfg Survey and Business Inventories

Tuesday: PPI: Producer Price Index - TICS: International In-Out Flows - Industrial production - Housing Market Index

Wednesday:  Housing Starts and CPI: Consumer Price Index

Thursday: US Weekly Jobless claims - Philly Fed - Leading Indicators - Fed Balance Sheet and Money Supply in Late Afternoon

Friday: No Scheduled US News

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International Scheduled News

Sunday: NZD: PPI and JPY: GDP and GBP Home Price Index

Monday: EUR: CPI AUD - RBA Monetary Meeting Minutes

Tuesday: GBP: CPI — EUR Trade Blance

Wednesday: EUR: Current Account — GBP: BoE Minutes — CAD CPI

Thursday: GBP: Retail Sales

Friday: EUR: German PPI

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Live – Weekly Webinars and US GDP report - Click Here to Register

- The “1st on Forex” Week Ahead Mondays at 12 Noon Eastern Click Here

- November 24^th  US GDP Report – Live Coverage Starts 7:30am Eastern Click Here

Jerry Furst is an active trader, educator, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN), He is a Mentor and Trading Coach to Select Clients Click Here for a Free Self Evaluation Survey.

Big Week – and Volatility Ahead – CIT Chapter 11?

by Jerry Furst – Sr Analyst  - Investors Education Network.com  

Last Week the  VIX closed over 30 spiking to an intraday high of over 31 on Friday with the DOW dropping 250 points and the S&P 500 dropping over 30 points and the S&P 500 breaking trend line support.

Looking at chart patterns is often called an art and a science. Eventually technical traders will build up a photographic memory of patterns and quickly recognize similarities.  I present to you an example.

The Daily charts of the Euro and the Weekly chart of the VIX  (S&P 500 Volatility Index) may give technical traders time to pause over the next two images I show.  

Chart Pattern Similarities - Euro and Vix - Sr Analyst - Jerry Furst - IEN - Click to Enlarge

Image 1 Above – On the Left – EURO – Daily Chart of March 18, 2009

The Past May Help Us Determine The FutureSimilar Patterns  - Note the Triangle – Failing Head and Shoulders and Trend Line Break which is practically identical to the current Weekly chart of the VIX as of October 30, 2009 – on the Right

Euro-USD Daily - October 30, 2009 - Shows Failed Head and Shoulder Pattern

Image 2 – Euro-USD Daily - October 30, 2009 – Shows the Failed Head and Shoulder completed – extending above and Beyond the Head and Shoulder Pattern. If this pattern is to be repeated on the VIX – Look Out Below!

Lots of News Scheduled as VIX Picks Up

Currency traders may want to consider shifting to tactics and strategies that work best in high volatility markets. Correlations between the equity markets and Forex may fluctuate if fundamentals get in the way.

Last weeks move up in the VIX and triple digit losses on the DOW are looming large over an extended equity market. (Click here to register and tune  into my webinar  on FX Street at 12 Noon Eastern (GMT -5)

Wow – What a Week Ahead Coming Up!

Monday: – Watch the Asian Markets into the US Open. us Data Includes Home Sales  - ISM and Construction Spending.

Tuesday: GBP: PMI , and US Consumer Confidence

Wednesday: – FOMC announcement - leading into Fridays NFP Employment Report

Thursday: BOE and ECB Central Bank Announcements – watch for signs of policy change statements. US Weekly Jobless claims and Fed Balance Sheet data. (click here to register and tune into my webinar on FX Street starting at 1:30pm Eastern (GMT -5)

Friday: NFP-Non Farm Payroll – US Trade and Consumer Credit Data

Traders Be Aware This Sunday – CIT Chapter 11?

CIT Group is reportedly ready to file a “prepackaged bankruptcy plan”. Sources indicate this may occur as early as this Sunday Nov 1. If Chapter 11 is filed – it would qualify as the 5^th largest bankruptcy filing ever ($71 Billion in Assets) in the US.

CNBC’s David Faber broke the news on Friday afternoon Oct 30, and he speculated that preferred shareholders are likely to be “wiped out”. These “preferred Shareholders include the US Taxpayer that had injected $2.3 Billion.

Tune in to Monday’s Free Week Ahead Webinar and FOMC on Wed - Click Here to Register

The “1st on Forex”  Week Ahead Mondays at 12 Noon Eastern  Click Here

FOMC Live Webinar Wed Nov 4 at 1:30 Eastern - Click Here to Register

.

Jerry Furst  is an active trader, educator, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN), He is a Mentor and Trading Coach to Select Clients  Click Here for a Free Self Evaluation Survey.

Wednesday has lots of news ahead of NFP

US News Scheduled For Wednesday is loaded  as we lead up to Friday’s Non Farm Payroll report. ADP Job numbers come out at 8:15 followed by the GDP and Corporate Profits report at 8:30am. Chicago PMI then follows at 9:45am.

Tune in to my US GDP report  webinar here on FX Street starting at 7:30am where we will look at the fundamentals and technical’s  before during and after the news!   See Link Below to register

Charts of Future Past - Before and After - Click to Enlarge Chart Images

Below are three of my recent posted charts before and after - side by side.  

GBP-Yen Sept 18-29 Daily Chart - Shows the completion of the Double Top and “M” pattern that is continuing to trade to the downside inside a nice trend channel.

GBP –USD Sept  18 – 29 Daily Chart - Shows the Head and Shoulder Pattern completing the formation that was in progress back on Sept 18 has now gone “to and through”  the “Neck Line”.  The question now is: Will the Sterling bounce and correct to retest the neckline, or continue to the 200% extension target of the Pattern… or go sideways..?

AUD-JPY Sept 23-29 4 Hour Chart – Triangle with Inverse Head and Shoulder Pattern worked out beautifully to the Downside as it now looks more like a Double Top and “M” formation – The previous post from September 23 is now complete! Price has now retraced quickly back to the trend line.

Tune in to the “1^ston Forex” Webinars on FX Street

Every Monday - The Week Ahead at 16:00 GMT (12 Noon Eastern)- Click Here to Register

FOMC Announcement - Live Webinar This Wed Sept 23 Click Here to Register

US GDP Report – Live Webinar – Wed Sep 30 Click Here to Register

Text Watch from the Fed - Watch Live Webinar Coverage

Ben Bernanke and team are widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged

But the reaction will likely take place about 5 minutes after the text statement is digested.

Click Here to Register for Live Webinar Coverage

This comes a week after Bernanke went out on the limb by stating that the recession in the US is probably over and that we have seen the bottom. He then heads out to Pittsburgh for the G20 meeting

Triangle and Inverse Head and Shoulders on the Aussie – Yen

Sept 22, 2009 Aussie Yen shows a Triangle and Inverse Head and Shoulder on the 4 hour chart as we await the FOMC interest rate - policy announcement (Click to Enlarge)

Tune in to the “1^ston Forex” Webinars on FX Street

Every Monday - The Week Ahead at 16:00 GMT (12 Noon Eastern)- Click Here to Register

FOMC Announcement - Live Webinar This Wed Sept 23 Click Here to Register

US GDP Report – Live Webinar – Wed Sep 30 Click Here to Register

Jerry Furst  is an active trader, educator, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN), He is a Mentor and Trading Coach to Select Clients  Click Here for a Free Self Evaluation Survey.

Search for Safe Havens - Dollar Again?

Although the US Dollar has been under pressure for the past few months - Is it time for a greenback rebound? The search for safe haven leaves little hiding places. Gold has now settled comfortably above the $1,000 mark and predictions of $1,250 are now being bantered around.

Pound Sterling Technical Analysis - September 19, 2009

The Sterling -Dollar and Sterling Yen are showing some bearish patterns on the Daily charts.

Pound Sterling - US Dollar - Daily Chart September 18, 2009

GBP-USD Daily Chart shows a “Head and Shoulder” pattern nearing completion with potential targets after the Neck Line is Hit. (Click to enlarge)

Pound Yen - Daily Chart - September 18, 2009

GBP-JPY Daily Chart has more room to go down before completeing this pattern - but this daily chart might be viewed as bearish to aggressive traders of the Sterling Yen pair. (Click to enlarge)

Tune in to the “1^ston Forex” Webinars on FX Street

Every Monday - The Week Ahead at 16:00 GMT (12 Noon Eastern)- Click Here

FOMC Announcement - Live Webinar This Wed Sept 23 Click Here to Register

Jerry Furst  is an active trader, educator, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN), He is a Mentor and Trading Coach to Select Clients  Click Here for a Free Self Evaluation Survey.

Asian Markets in the Drivers Seat

The FX week began Sunday evening in New York with the China Equity markets selling off. Initially the US Dollar gained ground - but then gave it back over the past few days. China’s equity markets have shed over 4% in the past two days as signs of exports and lack of internal demand are weighing heavily on the low cost producer. Most likely the weak consumer demand is continuing to trickle back to the manufacturing floors around the Asian markets.

S&P Chops Around - FX Markets Go Sideways

The SP 500 and Futures markets have been consolidating during most of the New York sesssions Monday and Tuesday. This has been keeping the FX Sessions quite choppy. The Yen crosses regained some of their strength and are currently poised at around a 50% retracement at mid week.

This week may see more trading volatility again - as we have seen in the past. Last Weeks dismal unemployment numbers ahead of the July 4^th Holiday gave a boost to the US Dollar as money came out of equities and into the safe refuge of the “Holding Tank” of the Currency.

July 6 - 10 2009 - US Calendar

Not much news scheduled until the end of the week.

7-6: Monday - ISM Mfg Index and some Treasury Auctions

7-7: Tuesday - US Treasury Strips

7-8: Wednesday - 10 yr auction and Consumer Credit Report

7-9: Thursday - Weekly Jobless Claims - Wholesale Trade

7-10: Friday - Trade Data - Import-Export Prices - Consumer Sentiment

 July 6 - 10 2009 - International Calendar - Highlights

Interest Rate Announcements from Australia, and the UK, Employment Data from Canada - Stay Tuned

Yen Gains on the Majors

The Yen has made significant gains against the US Dollar, Euro and Pound as Asian stocks were falling as the week gets under way.

Jerry Furst  is an active trader, educator, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN), He is a Mentor and Trading Coach to Select Clients  Click Here for a Free Self Evaluation Survey.

Tune in to the “1^st on Forex” Webinars on FX Street

Every Monday - The Week Ahead at 16:00 GMT (12 Noon Eastern)- Click Here

Lots of Scheduled News On and Off the Calendar

FOMC Statement Awaits on Wednesday

Although no interest rate change is expected, the accompanying statement from Bernanke and the Fed will be scrutinized for signs of Future Policy Insights. Expectations for a Rate Hike by December and insights on the Quantitative Easing policy may have market moving consequences.

Live Coverage - 1st on Forex Webinar will be broadcast on FX Street - register below.

Economic Contraction Continues

On Thursday the US GDP will be report on the current economic status. The current consensus number is expected to show -5.7% growth.

Live Coverage - 1st on Forex Webinar will be broadcast on FX Street - register below.

Euro Under Pressure?

EURGBP - 60 Min Chart Above (click to enlarge) Sports a Head and Shoulder pattern in play and grinding towards completion of the pattern target of approx 0.842

Three “1^st on Forex” Webinars This Week - Register for free access

·         The Week Ahead - Every Monday 12 Noon EST (16:00 GMT) - Click Here to Register

·         FOMC Announcement - Wed 1:30pm EST (13:00 GMT)- Click Here to Register

·         US GDP Report - Thu 7:30am EST (13:00 GMT)  - Click Here to Register

Jerry Furst  is an active trader, educator, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN), He is a Mentor and Trading Coach to Select Clients  Click Here for a Free Self Evaluation Survey.

by Jerry Furst Sr. Technical Analyst at Investors Education Network

Technical Analysis Explained - at The Right Edge… But 1st…

Lately there has been so much Fundamental News going on I have writers block - I don’t know what to write 1st! So I decided to break the blockage by just doing a Technical Analysis lesson on chart patterns, rather than get into the BRIC Meeting that took place in Russia, being attended by the contested leader of Iran, or how the TIC data showed China has started selling, or how Ken Lewis CEO of  Bank of America told congress he was forced by the Fed and Treasury to take on Merrill Lynch, or how… well here’s the TA…

June 16, 2009 as the European Session opens we have some really nice examples of Technical Analysis - Chart Patterns on the 4 Hour Charts.  It’s worthy to mention that the 4 Hour Charts will be a good guide for the “Intermediate Term” Forex Trader.

You can then trade the shorter time frames accordingly! - Just Follow the Charts

Rounded Top

GBP-JPY 4 Hour Chart Shows Downward Trend Continuing after Completing a Rounded Top

“M” Pattern - Double Tops - Failed Inverse Head and Shoulders

AUD-USD 4 Hour Chart Shows a Double Top and ”M” Pattern May Be Next. Note that the “Inverse Head and Shoulders” failed to break the “Neck Line” and bounced back down to the “Top of the Head”.

Twin Peaks - Possible “M” Pattern

GBP-USD 4 Hour Chart Shows “Twin Peaks” or “Double Top”. Look closer and you will see a “Head and Shoulder” Pattern on a 30 Minute Chart that may propel this chart further downward to complete a “M” Pattern.

Head and Shoulders - Rounded Tops

EUR-USD 4 Hour Chart - Head and Shoulders formed with good examples of Rounded Tops. Ready to “Bounce or Break” off the “Neck Line”

Rounded Bottoms and Inverse Head and Shoulders

USD-CHF 4 Hour Chart Shows Rouneded Bottoms with Inverse Head and Shoulders

Rounded Top  - Inside Triangle Pattern

USD-JPY 4 Hour Chart shows Riunded Top Completed and then Breaking the Trend Line of a Triangle completes the Triangle’s Target in a prompt fashion.

Rounded Tops and Bottoms - In Summary

Can you see how these patterns repeat and show inside of other patterns?

Happy Pattern Hunting and feel free to email me when you see patterns at the “Right Edge” that get your attention - or need clarification.

Happy Trading in Good Health

Jerry Furst  is an active trader, educator, and Founder of Investors Education Network.com (IEN), He is available as a Mentor and Trading Coach to Select Clients  Click Here for a Free Self Evaluation Survey.

Details Coming Soon….

 Meanwhile - Technically Speaking

EUR-GBP 15 Min Chart (click to enlarge) Shows a beautiful Technical Analysis Lesson

-  “High and Low Water Marks from 0.90 to 0.8925

- Consolidation

- Possible Inverse Head And Shoulder Forming Right Shoulder

- Fibonnaci Extensions and Retracement with “potential Price Targets

Tune in to the “1^st on Forex” Webinars on FX Street

Every Monday - The Week Ahead at 16:00 GMT (12 Noon Eastern)- Click Here

Jerry Furst  is an active trader, educator, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN), He is a Mentor and Trading Coach to Select Clients  Click Here for a Free Self Evaluation Survey.