Wednesday has lots of news ahead of NFP

US News Scheduled For Wednesday is loaded  as we lead up to Friday’s Non Farm Payroll report. ADP Job numbers come out at 8:15 followed by the GDP and Corporate Profits report at 8:30am. Chicago PMI then follows at 9:45am.

Tune in to my US GDP report  webinar here on FX Street starting at 7:30am where we will look at the fundamentals and technical’s  before during and after the news!   See Link Below to register

Charts of Future Past - Before and After - Click to Enlarge Chart Images

Below are three of my recent posted charts before and after - side by side.  

GBP-Yen Sept 18-29 Daily Chart - Shows the completion of the Double Top and “M” pattern that is continuing to trade to the downside inside a nice trend channel.

GBP –USD Sept  18 – 29 Daily Chart - Shows the Head and Shoulder Pattern completing the formation that was in progress back on Sept 18 has now gone “to and through”  the “Neck Line”.  The question now is: Will the Sterling bounce and correct to retest the neckline, or continue to the 200% extension target of the Pattern… or go sideways..?

AUD-JPY Sept 23-29 4 Hour Chart – Triangle with Inverse Head and Shoulder Pattern worked out beautifully to the Downside as it now looks more like a Double Top and “M” formation – The previous post from September 23 is now complete! Price has now retraced quickly back to the trend line.

Tune in to the “1^ston Forex” Webinars on FX Street

Every Monday - The Week Ahead at 16:00 GMT (12 Noon Eastern)- Click Here to Register

FOMC Announcement - Live Webinar This Wed Sept 23 Click Here to Register

US GDP Report – Live Webinar – Wed Sep 30 Click Here to Register

Asian Markets in the Drivers Seat

The FX week began Sunday evening in New York with the China Equity markets selling off. Initially the US Dollar gained ground - but then gave it back over the past few days. China’s equity markets have shed over 4% in the past two days as signs of exports and lack of internal demand are weighing heavily on the low cost producer. Most likely the weak consumer demand is continuing to trickle back to the manufacturing floors around the Asian markets.

S&P Chops Around - FX Markets Go Sideways

The SP 500 and Futures markets have been consolidating during most of the New York sesssions Monday and Tuesday. This has been keeping the FX Sessions quite choppy. The Yen crosses regained some of their strength and are currently poised at around a 50% retracement at mid week.

Watching Paint Dry – Continuing Consolidation?

Interest Rate and Trichet Watch

As the Dollar Index slides to fresh lows, the Pound and the Euro have been painting a sideways market ahead of the BoE and ECB announcements tomorrow. Jean Claud Trichet will have his press conference as the US releases Weekly Jobless Claims, and then the Non Farm Payroll on Friday.

It is being hypothesized that the FOMC will allow the Treasury purchase programs to expire in September, and the $1.23 Trillion of mortgage backed securities and other programs may be left to expire at the end of the year – so reports Bloomberg’s Steve Mathews, quoting Laurence Meyer of Macroeconomic Advisers.

The FOMC interest rate announcement on Wed August 12  and I will be conducting a Live Webinar on FX Street – Click Below  to register – Free!

Register to Tune in to the “1^st on Forex” Webinars on FX Street

The Week Ahead Every Monday at 16:00 GMT (12 Noon Eastern) - Click Here

FOMC Interest Rate Announcement – Aug 12 17:30 GMT (1:30pm EDT) Click Here

Jerry Furst  is an active trader, educator, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN), He is a Mentor and Trading Coach to Select Clients  Click Here for a Free Self Evaluation Survey.

By Jerry Furst - Sr Analyst “1st on Forex”

US Economy Going and Growing Up Fast? -  Not So… Fast!

The Consensus Range for Friday’s  US GDP  is -2.8 to 0.7, with a consensus number of -0.7%  growth . This is highly optimistic since last month’s GDP number came in at a negative -5.5%. The “rose colored glasses and windows” crowd would love to claim the worst is over.

Jobs is the Answer

The reality is that the jobless rate is still ugly and new jobless claims are still rising. Anecdotal  talk of extended benefits being pulled back may soon paint a inaccurate picture that the jobless rate could be artificially made to look better - sooner – as continuing unemployment claims will be dropping soon as benefits expire and people fall off the unemployment benefits list as “no longer seeking employment”.

S&P 500 test of 1,000 Imminent ? and then Lookout Below?

The S&P 500 is flirting with 1,000 – A significant psychological support – resistance level.

My previous post of July 16^th showed the S&P 500 grinding towards the 956 neckline of a massive Inverse Head and Shoulder Pattern going back to January, and the Failed Head and Shoulder of the past few months.  That target was quickly achieved a few days later and promptly blasted up targeting the 1,000 mark.

S&P 500 4 Hour Chart (click to Enlarge)

This may indeed have been a significant short squeeze. If this 1,000 level is not significantly breached to the upside, then the weaker short positions that were just squeezed may have been removed – possibly clearing the way for a massive move down?

Register to Tune in to the “1^st on Forex” Webinars on FX Street

US GDP Report This Friday 11:30GMT (7:30am Eastern) Click Here

The Week Ahead Every Monday at 16:00 GMT (12 Noon Eastern)- Click Here

Jerry Furst  is an active trader, educator, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN), He is a Mentor and Trading Coach to Select Clients  Click Here for a Free Self Evaluation Survey.

This week may see more trading volatility again - as we have seen in the past. Last Weeks dismal unemployment numbers ahead of the July 4^th Holiday gave a boost to the US Dollar as money came out of equities and into the safe refuge of the “Holding Tank” of the Currency.

July 6 - 10 2009 - US Calendar

Not much news scheduled until the end of the week.

7-6: Monday - ISM Mfg Index and some Treasury Auctions

7-7: Tuesday - US Treasury Strips

7-8: Wednesday - 10 yr auction and Consumer Credit Report

7-9: Thursday - Weekly Jobless Claims - Wholesale Trade

7-10: Friday - Trade Data - Import-Export Prices - Consumer Sentiment

 July 6 - 10 2009 - International Calendar - Highlights

Interest Rate Announcements from Australia, and the UK, Employment Data from Canada - Stay Tuned

Yen Gains on the Majors

The Yen has made significant gains against the US Dollar, Euro and Pound as Asian stocks were falling as the week gets under way.

Jerry Furst  is an active trader, educator, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN), He is a Mentor and Trading Coach to Select Clients  Click Here for a Free Self Evaluation Survey.

Tune in to the “1^st on Forex” Webinars on FX Street

Every Monday - The Week Ahead at 16:00 GMT (12 Noon Eastern)- Click Here

Lots of Scheduled News On and Off the Calendar

FOMC Statement Awaits on Wednesday

Although no interest rate change is expected, the accompanying statement from Bernanke and the Fed will be scrutinized for signs of Future Policy Insights. Expectations for a Rate Hike by December and insights on the Quantitative Easing policy may have market moving consequences.

Live Coverage - 1st on Forex Webinar will be broadcast on FX Street - register below.

Economic Contraction Continues

On Thursday the US GDP will be report on the current economic status. The current consensus number is expected to show -5.7% growth.

Live Coverage - 1st on Forex Webinar will be broadcast on FX Street - register below.

Euro Under Pressure?

EURGBP - 60 Min Chart Above (click to enlarge) Sports a Head and Shoulder pattern in play and grinding towards completion of the pattern target of approx 0.842

Three “1^st on Forex” Webinars This Week - Register for free access

·         The Week Ahead - Every Monday 12 Noon EST (16:00 GMT) - Click Here to Register

·         FOMC Announcement - Wed 1:30pm EST (13:00 GMT)- Click Here to Register

·         US GDP Report - Thu 7:30am EST (13:00 GMT)  - Click Here to Register

Jerry Furst  is an active trader, educator, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN), He is a Mentor and Trading Coach to Select Clients  Click Here for a Free Self Evaluation Survey.

by Jerry Furst Sr. Technical Analyst at Investors Education Network

Technical Analysis Explained - at The Right Edge… But 1st…

Lately there has been so much Fundamental News going on I have writers block - I don’t know what to write 1st! So I decided to break the blockage by just doing a Technical Analysis lesson on chart patterns, rather than get into the BRIC Meeting that took place in Russia, being attended by the contested leader of Iran, or how the TIC data showed China has started selling, or how Ken Lewis CEO of  Bank of America told congress he was forced by the Fed and Treasury to take on Merrill Lynch, or how… well here’s the TA…

June 16, 2009 as the European Session opens we have some really nice examples of Technical Analysis - Chart Patterns on the 4 Hour Charts.  It’s worthy to mention that the 4 Hour Charts will be a good guide for the “Intermediate Term” Forex Trader.

You can then trade the shorter time frames accordingly! - Just Follow the Charts

Rounded Top

GBP-JPY 4 Hour Chart Shows Downward Trend Continuing after Completing a Rounded Top

“M” Pattern - Double Tops - Failed Inverse Head and Shoulders

AUD-USD 4 Hour Chart Shows a Double Top and ”M” Pattern May Be Next. Note that the “Inverse Head and Shoulders” failed to break the “Neck Line” and bounced back down to the “Top of the Head”.

Twin Peaks - Possible “M” Pattern

GBP-USD 4 Hour Chart Shows “Twin Peaks” or “Double Top”. Look closer and you will see a “Head and Shoulder” Pattern on a 30 Minute Chart that may propel this chart further downward to complete a “M” Pattern.

Head and Shoulders - Rounded Tops

EUR-USD 4 Hour Chart - Head and Shoulders formed with good examples of Rounded Tops. Ready to “Bounce or Break” off the “Neck Line”

Rounded Bottoms and Inverse Head and Shoulders

USD-CHF 4 Hour Chart Shows Rouneded Bottoms with Inverse Head and Shoulders

Rounded Top  - Inside Triangle Pattern

USD-JPY 4 Hour Chart shows Riunded Top Completed and then Breaking the Trend Line of a Triangle completes the Triangle’s Target in a prompt fashion.

Rounded Tops and Bottoms - In Summary

Can you see how these patterns repeat and show inside of other patterns?

Happy Pattern Hunting and feel free to email me when you see patterns at the “Right Edge” that get your attention - or need clarification.

Happy Trading in Good Health

Jerry Furst  is an active trader, educator, and Founder of Investors Education Network.com (IEN), He is available as a Mentor and Trading Coach to Select Clients  Click Here for a Free Self Evaluation Survey.

Details Coming Soon….

 Meanwhile - Technically Speaking

EUR-GBP 15 Min Chart (click to enlarge) Shows a beautiful Technical Analysis Lesson

-  “High and Low Water Marks from 0.90 to 0.8925

- Consolidation

- Possible Inverse Head And Shoulder Forming Right Shoulder

- Fibonnaci Extensions and Retracement with “potential Price Targets

Tune in to the “1^st on Forex” Webinars on FX Street

Every Monday - The Week Ahead at 16:00 GMT (12 Noon Eastern)- Click Here

Jerry Furst  is an active trader, educator, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN), He is a Mentor and Trading Coach to Select Clients  Click Here for a Free Self Evaluation Survey.

By Jerry Furst - Sr Analyst: 1st on Forex -  Investors Education Network

Mind Your Head - Bank Stress Test Leaves No Pain!

The US equity markets continue to look bullish and some are calling the Bears out for their final slaughter - The long awaited, delayed, and leaked Bank “Stress Test” hit the market with a whimper on Thursday.

The results - 10 of the19 “Too Big to Fail” banks will need about $75 Billion USD to shore up an estimated total of $599 Billion in losses.

S&P 500 Daily - as the chart above shows the 200 MA on the S&P 500 within tagging range - also note the previous years “Sell in May and Go Away” working quite well. Who’s getting ready to clock their profits and take off for the summer?

The Euro has been trending higher and a review of my posts of last week show the Head and Shoulder Pattern in play with an ultimate pattern target of 1.3750 only 100 pips away as of this writing - May 10^th  - 22:30 EST

EUR-USD - The two charts above show last weeks post compared to where we are now. (click to enlarge charts) - Nice trend in play

Loonie Looms Large - Back to Parity?

The long consolidation on the USD-CAD that began back in October of 2008 is over! The Daily and 4 Hour charts posted here show a beautiful Head and Shoulder breakout with strong momentum to the downside.

USD-CAD The above charts from April 19 and Today May 11^th show that there is potentially another 300 pips to go before the Head and Shoulder pattern plays out at around the 1.1200 range. (click to enlarge charts)

The Week Ahead - Calendar and Webinar

US News to Watch for this week includes:

Tuesday - International Trade and Treasury Budget

Thursday - PPI - Weekly Jobless Claims

Friday - CPI - TICS Data - Consumer Sentiment

Tune in to the “1^st on Forex” Webinars on FX Street

Every Monday - The Week Ahead at 16:00 GMT (12 Noon Eastern)- Click Here

Jerry Furst  is an active trader, educator, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN), He is a Mentor and Trading Coach to Select Clients  Click Here for a Free Self Evaluation Survey.

By Jerry Furst - Sr Analyst - Investors Education Network

 Euro Poised For Breakout?

The Daily Chart of the EUR-USD (above) shows the Euro breaking resistance of a trend chanell

While the 4 Hour Chart of the EUR-USD (above) shows an Inverse Head and Shoulder

This is confirmed with the Inverse Correlated USD-CHF (above) with a Head and Shoulder

Both 4 Hour charts show a strong Support and Resistance lines .

 The Week Ahead

The long awaited results of the so called “Stress Test” of US banks has been delayed. Speculation is that the original results were “sugar coated” for the government view and the requirements for some banks to raise more capital and could roil the markets.

 Tuesday, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke testifies to the Joint Economic Committee of Congress with his outlook on the US and the “Bizzaro” World Economy

 Thursday has the ECB and BoE with Interest rate and Quantitative Easing policy and other “unconventional methods” to combat the

 Friday has US Non Farm Payroll and Canada Unemployment Data

Tune in to the 1st on Forex - Week Ahead  Webinar - Click Here

Jerry Furst  is an active trader, educator, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN), He is a Mentor and Trading Coach to Select Clients  Click Here for a Free Self Evaluation Survey.