by Jerry Furst – Sr Analyst at www.Investors-Education-Network.com

The Scary Carry Trade

China is concerned that the US Dollar will continue to fall and potentially cause global inflation in commodity prices. Bloomberg is reporting several Chinese officials as being “scared” and concerned about the speculation taking place as some currencies such as the Australian Dollar are being played for the new Carry Trade with the US taking the role of Japan’s easy monetary policy.

Aussie – US Dollar: Seeking Parity?

A Look at the Weekly Chart on the AUD-USD shows that the pair is racing to make a double top with parity as a potential target. The Daily Chart shows a sustained uptrend that just does not want to quit.  When watching the Aussie, traders should be aware of the correlation to Gold. This correlation  may disconnect if Gold decides to overshoot or correct.

Australian Dollar Seeking Parity?

Australian Dollar Seeking Parity?

The AUD-USD Weekly chart above (click to enlarge) shows the 75% retracement has been exceeded and a double top at 98.50 puts parity of the Australian Dollar with the Greenback within the range of possibilities.

The Trend is Your Friend - Until the End!

AUD-USD Daily  chart above (click to enlarge) shows two strong upward trend channel’s making a move that is hard to trade against.

The Week Ahead - gets Started Sunday! Webinar Monday

Lot’s of news in the opening session of the week as New Zealand, Japan and the UK have potential market moving news scheduled to kick start the volatility for the week.

Tune in to my webinar on FX Street with the link at the bottom of this post

Summarized List of Scheduled News for the Week Ahead

For a List of Economic Calendars and times for news events –

Visit and Bookmark

==> http://www.investors-education-network.com/economic-calendar.htm

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US Scheduled News

Monday: Retail Sales - Mfg Survey and Business Inventories

Tuesday: PPI: Producer Price Index - TICS: International In-Out Flows - Industrial production - Housing Market Index

Wednesday:  Housing Starts and CPI: Consumer Price Index

Thursday: US Weekly Jobless claims - Philly Fed - Leading Indicators - Fed Balance Sheet and Money Supply in Late Afternoon

Friday: No Scheduled US News

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International Scheduled News

Sunday: NZD: PPI and JPY: GDP and GBP Home Price Index

Monday: EUR: CPI AUD - RBA Monetary Meeting Minutes

Tuesday: GBP: CPI — EUR Trade Blance

Wednesday: EUR: Current Account — GBP: BoE Minutes — CAD CPI

Thursday: GBP: Retail Sales

Friday: EUR: German PPI

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Live – Weekly Webinars and US GDP report - Click Here to Register

- The “1st on Forex” Week Ahead Mondays at 12 Noon Eastern Click Here

- November 24^th  US GDP Report – Live Coverage Starts 7:30am Eastern Click Here

Jerry Furst is an active trader, educator, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN), He is a Mentor and Trading Coach to Select Clients Click Here for a Free Self Evaluation Survey.

By Jerry Furst - Sr Analyst “1st on Forex” -  Investors Education Network.com

The Dollar Index and Gold

The Dollar Index has a history, and indeed the charts show we have been at and below current levels before. So now the question is, Will price “Bounce or Break” off of familiar levels?

Looking at the Charts of the US Dollar Index and Gold ETF

US Dollar Index (Symbol DX - eSignal) Monthly and Daily Charts

US - DX: The Monthly Chart (click to enlarge) gives us a text book lesson in Fibonacci retracements and extensions. The Trade Weighted Index made a double bottom which coincides at the 75% Fibonacci retracement level .

Drawing the Fibonacci retracements from the 1993 low to the 1994 high gives us a 38.2 retracement that held the March 2009 high of 89.60 and the 138.2 Extension 0f 70.70.

So this monthly chart looks ominous as a drop to the 1993 lows looks possible.

US - DX: The Daily Chart (click to enlarge) of the US Dollar Index shows  the decision point quite clearly. We have extremely strong support at the current level of 76 - which is a 75% retracement of July 2008’s low to the March 2009 high.

78 Would Be Great - 72 What Would You Do?

We can now Bounce or break off of this level - with targets of 78 for a bounce up to the 61.8 Retracement - OR - a drop down to retest the July 2008 low of about 72.

GOLD - GLD ETF - October 9, 2009 Makes Weekly All Time High

GLD - The Weekly Chart above (click to enlarge) shows the GLD Gold ETF shows some text book lessons for technical analysis. The GLD ETF hit a high of 104.15 while spot Gold traded at over $1,060 an ounce.  

 An inverse Head and Shoulder pattern with a broken resistance “Neck Line” and a Triangle Pattern at the Right Shoulder that is already in play is heading towards the 125% Fibonacci Extension of 108. This would correspond with Spot Gold prices of about $1,100

The Head and Shoulder Pattern has a target at approximately 120, that is convergent with a significant Fibonacci extension of 161.8%  This would correspond with Spot Gold prices of about $1,300

 The Headline Indicator - Explained

The front page of the Financial Times on Thursday Oct 8, 2009 featured the US Dollar Index “as fear grows over currency”.  There is a fundamental-news type indicator that is sometimes quite handy to keep in mind of, the concept being: “If it’s on the front page of the paper and on the lips of people that rarely speak about it… it’s probably over bought - or oversold.

My trading methodology is what I call 90% technical-charting and 20% Fundamental-News but exponentially weighted. (meaning that the fundamental news has a half life of 5-30 minutes for things like GDP reports,  and even Non Farm Payroll - Unemployment Numbers).

Headline Surprise - or Expected?

The Headline Indicator has different connotations that traders pick up on after a while. If there is an  unexpected event of either extreme negative or positive news that has no precedent, and no one knows just how bad the repercussions can be - then the Headline Indicator may be a catalyst for an extreme move yet to come. However, if Walmart (for example)  is picked to be the “Stock of the Year” and it is seen on the checkout line of your favorite shopping place - the likelihood is that it’s made a top.

US Dollar Down - But Not Out!

So, in conclusion: Yes - the US Dollar is being shed - but perhaps it has been punished enough for now, and a retracement is in order. As for Gold, well the paper money has to go somewhere - and hard commodities that are easily exchangeable might just be the new currency of choice for a little while.

The question really is….. Where would you park your money?

Jerry Furst  is an active trader, educator, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN), He is a Mentor and Trading Coach to Select Clients  Click Here for a Free Self Evaluation Survey.

Tune in to the “1^st on Forex” Webinars on FX Street

Every Monday - The Week Ahead at 16:00 GMT (12 Noon Eastern)- Click Here

Search for Safe Havens - Dollar Again?

Although the US Dollar has been under pressure for the past few months - Is it time for a greenback rebound? The search for safe haven leaves little hiding places. Gold has now settled comfortably above the $1,000 mark and predictions of $1,250 are now being bantered around.

Pound Sterling Technical Analysis - September 19, 2009

The Sterling -Dollar and Sterling Yen are showing some bearish patterns on the Daily charts.

Pound Sterling - US Dollar - Daily Chart September 18, 2009

GBP-USD Daily Chart shows a “Head and Shoulder” pattern nearing completion with potential targets after the Neck Line is Hit. (Click to enlarge)

Pound Yen - Daily Chart - September 18, 2009

GBP-JPY Daily Chart has more room to go down before completeing this pattern - but this daily chart might be viewed as bearish to aggressive traders of the Sterling Yen pair. (Click to enlarge)

Tune in to the “1^ston Forex” Webinars on FX Street

Every Monday - The Week Ahead at 16:00 GMT (12 Noon Eastern)- Click Here

FOMC Announcement - Live Webinar This Wed Sept 23 Click Here to Register

Jerry Furst  is an active trader, educator, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN), He is a Mentor and Trading Coach to Select Clients  Click Here for a Free Self Evaluation Survey.

Obama Re Affirms US Leadership The world can breathe a sigh of relief as it appears as if some sanity has prevailed and presented itself in the form of the G20 Communiqué.

Read All About The New World Order - As it is forming at the Official G20 Website http://www.g20.org/pub_communiques.aspx

Financial Markets Rejoice The equity markets soared as it learned of the success of the London Summit and Barack Obama gave a hopeful press conference that showed his leadership and “Toast Master” skills.

Central Banks Selling Gold  Disclosure that the World Bank - IMF and the Central Banks have been granted authority to sell Gold - this will allow the Central Banks to raise capital as they print more cash….and….. Artificially hold down the price of Gold by selling the reserves.

Another Week - Another Trillion - or Three!

The G20 Leaders pledged 1 Trillion Dollars to help developing countries and to support the IMF and…Meanwhile Back in Washington - Obama Budget Passes $3 Trillion Dollar Budget

FASB - Mark to Market passed but discussion is that this accounting rule change may prevent the PPIP program announced last week from getting off the ground. But that’s another story….

Meanwhile - Back at the Currency Charts 

Euro - Sterling 4 Hour Chart is setting up nice with a Head and Shoulder Pattern and …  

 The 30 Minute Chart is sporting a nice down trend channel.

 Jerry Furst  is an active trader, educator, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN), He is a Mentor and Trading Coach to Select Clients  Click Here for a Free Self Evaluation Survey.

Obama Administration Takes Reins of US Infrastructure

Housing - Insurance - Banking - Automotive Industries all fall under Washington’s control. With eyes on the health care system - education - transportation - and…Don’t Fart - That could be considered as a carbon emission! 

Who wants to be a CEO?

By now most readers have heard that the Obama administration has “ousted” the CEO of General Motors - once the largest and most admired car manufacturer in the world.

G20 Expectations - Set at What Level?

The world has been waiting for what some have coined “April Financial Fools Day” as the International Community will either band together - or split apart.

Protectionism - Protecting Who?

An interesting group of self interests and differing agendas seem to be emerging … As for demonstrations - they are planned throughout London - but who is doing the planning - anywhere?

Sell The Dollar - Buy The ????  - Book

Peter Schiff, author of “Crash Proof” and “The Little Book of Bull Moves in Bear Markets”  gave a lecture this past weekend in Boca Raton at Florida Atlantic University. His predictions of the current crisis have given him quite a following.  During the Q and A session I asked Mr. Schiff what his prediction of what would be the outcome of the G20 meeting. His response was a short and sweet -” It will be a photo op”  - to which I asked a follow up question as to what will be the reaction of people who understand the implications - ” he said ” they will sell the dollar”  - So then what will people buy….. the Q and A shifted to the subject of Gold.

The Week Ahead - Consolidated Economic Calendar

Under “normal” conditions this would be a news worthy week with NFP - unemployment data taking up the weeks speculation - but we all know the numbers will be bad - and the markets have shrugged off bad data lately.

Check out the “1st on Forex” Consolidated Summary of Scheduled News Events for the “Week Ahead”  on the www.ienweb.com site.

USD-JPY 4 Hour Chart - Inverse Head and Shoulder Setting Up?

Jerry Furst  is an active trader, educator, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN), He is a Mentor and Trading Coach to Select Clients  Click Here for a Free Self Evaluation Survey.

By Jerry Furst- Sr Analyst “1st on Forex” www.Investors-Education-Network.com

Dr Evil from Austin Powers only asked for a few hundred million

The good news may be that with this much desperation, perhaps we are closing in on the bottom. A test and bounce off of the November lows for the S&P would be nice… Let’s face it Two Trillion Dollars can go a long way – at least it used to… You just think that they would know what they are going to do with it!

On Tuesday Barack Obama fielded questions at a Town Hall meeting in Fort Meyers Florida – by a homeless woman looking for her own bathroom, an unemployed man who was looking for his full paycheck to be provided by unemployment insurance, and a part time McDonalds employee looking to get a “real job” as a broadcasting disk jockey…

US Treasury to “Stress Test” Banks

What does that really mean? The US Treasury Secretary stated it was to be interpreted as a medical term. Does this imply that the smaller regional banks – (the ones that do not have Government medical insurance – the ones small enough to fail) will be subject to the stress and strains of the market – and allowed to hit the floor?

Pass the Preparation “H” Please

Tim Geithner, Ben Bernanke, The heads of the US Banking System, The US Congress, the New President Barack Obama, The Media, The late night pundits, the bloggers, and the general public - We All have been sitting in the “Hot Seat”

Don’t Smirk Europe – The G7 Meets this week – We will pass you the tube!

Accusations of Nationalism and Protectionism is flying across Europe. Puttingthe Euro and the European Union on a stress test of it’s own… can this 10 year old, un-ratified union stand the strain?

My friends… as Jon Stewart on the Daily Show Stated…. “We are ———-“!

In the Mean Time…. Gold and the Dollar

The US Dollar is still a place of safe harbor – for now – But Gold is Inching upwards towards $1,000.

Gold ETF - GLD Daily Chart - (Click to Enlarge) Pushing Through Resistance with a nice upward trend channel.

EUR-USD Daily Chart (Click to Enlage) Head and Shoulder Pattern - maybe - maybe not - but theer’s a nice supporting trend line.

Tune in to Monday’s Free Webinar - Click Here to Register

Jerry Furst is an active trader, educator, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN), He is a Mentor and Trading Coach to Select Clients

Click Here for a Free Self Evaluation Survey.

I’m Back - On the Road Again…. An Evening with the Fed

Well folks, I just returned from Orlando Florida – home of Mickey Mouse, and I am now off to a cocktail reception and dinner at the Miami branch of the Federal Reserve tonight. That’s right, your humble narrator on the markets has been invited to: “An Evening with the Fed: Financial Crisis - What Happened - The Fed’s Response” - When I talked with the coordinator and joked about whether Bernanke would be there I was met with silence….                         

Multi-Tasking

I will tell you all about my adventure to the Fed over the next day or two - Be sure to tune in to my webinar on Monday at 12 noon eastern time as I am sure to have some observations for you. Click on the link below to register for the webinar.  I am busy trading all markets and maintaining other issues personal and otherwise - So I’m having fun learning how to live on a few hours of sleep and multi-task even more than usual…

Orlando: Psychology and Mind Management Conference

In Orlando, I did not dance with Mini-Mouse or take in the rides, I was at an amazing conference conducted by one of my Mentors, Mr. T. Harv Eker, The conference had nothing to do with trading or investing – it was all about Psychology and Mind Management – any professional trader will likely tell you that mastering your mind is the most critical factor to success - after you learn the mechanics of trading. Being a mentor, presenter and an educator - I love continuing education, networking,  and learning from others - I then pass my learned experiences on to those I teach.

Hot Topic - The Economy - No Surprises

While officially the conference had nothing to do with trading – but the economy, investing, and trading was a common topic in between speakers and sessions. For the people who knew me and my background it was really interesting to interact with non-traders discussing things like the Vix and why Richard Nixon took the US Dollar off the gold standard, etc…

My Economy is Fine

It was interesting as the primary speaker and celebrity – The host is quite well known – T. Harv Eker – He is successful and he came out stating that we need to be thankful for all the good things we have. He stated that “His Economy is Fine”.

The Need for Financial Education

Mr. Eker (and many of us) see this time as a great opportunity (remember everything is perception and perspective) He stated that he is buying. Someone in the crowd asked,  “What are you buying?”  Mr. Eker paused, squinted and quietly stated that he was buying indexes. It bothered me that some people I talked to did not know what an index was – the need for education is enormous.

Looking for a Bottom? -  Catching A Falling —— 

Last week is indicative of the type of headlines and panics worthy of a possible bottom. I’m usually looking for the scapegoat being handcuffed and paraded infront of  televsion cameras - last time I think it was Martha Stewart and some cable television guy …

However - this trader understands that most market bottoms usually come in with a thud, and I am just not convinced that we have heard it yet - although a 40 foot crater at the Pakistan Marriott is a telling sign - nothing for us to worry about…

Photo ops of the entire US Government represented by The Treasury, The Federal Reserve, The Speaker of the House, and the Senate - at the Presidents Invitation to…. spend 700 Billion to prop up a “house of cards”  that the president just recently learned was a bit bigger than his. 

Are We There Yet?  A Look at The Vix and S&P 500

Currency Markets Acting Well Technically - Hypoyhetically - Not Speaking

Currency Traders with their heads in the sand and only watching the charts may be doing quite nicely, as the trend and momentum trading is nothing less than excellent…. There are other issues that are currently hypothetical that I will not delve in to, but the possibility of extremely unexpected surprises are possible that might affect the currency markets and the way many of us trade…

The Week That Was and… Will Be?

Regsiter for the Free Webinars This Week

Monday 12 noon EST (16:00 GMT) The Week Ahead - Register

Friday 7:30am EST (13:00 GMT) US GDP Report Live Coverage - Register

The 1st on Forex - Week Ahead - Summarized Calendar and Webinar

Click Here for Summarized Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead

Jerry Furst  is an active trader, educator, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN), He is a Mentor and Trading Coach to Select Clients  Click Here for a Free Self Evaluation Survey.

This Did Not Have To Happen - Questions that Need Answers

• All the Kings Horses…. 
• Nobody Trusts the Numbers 
• Creative Destruction  
• Margin Calls In Front of Redemptions 
• Gold’s Biggest One Day Percentage Gain Ever!  
• Is There a Leader in the House? Senate? Corner Office?  
• “They’ve lost faith in the Financials” – Art Cashin 
• Senator Shelby: We are going to have to have some hearings early next year 
• One Solution: “World Wide Interest Rate Cut” - - James Cramer  
• Resolution Trust - All Over Again  
• Fear in Solid Control  
• China Daily – World Needs New Currency  
• Lack of Regulation in Credit Default Market  
• Fiduciary Duty – Lack of Oversight  
• Too Big To Fail?  What About Bank of America  - Using Depositors Money !!
• Who’s Next?  

Headlines and Events - Getting Out Of Hand

The Market Carnage Continues…

It amazes me that even last week I heard some market analysts and pundits say that we were not in a recession! Long time readers of my blog know  that I called the portential for the worst time since the “Great Depression”  My Headline for Jan 22 was “Recession in Play - Depression on the Way?”

http://blogs.fxstreet.com/1stonforex/2008/01/22/recession-in-play-depression-on-the-way/

on January 24th I refrenced the Great Depression again

http://blogs.fxstreet.com/1stonforex/2008/01/24/bernanke-watches-futures-trader-watches-past-and-reminisces-of-the-shoe-shine-boy-cnbc-girls/

Gold was basically flat on Monday and I was pondering why - I called it Sunday Night - I hope some of you had come to the same conclusions.  I really find no joy in being right about things being so wrong - but the Rose Colored Windows are being shattered.

The Blame Game

Boiled Down It IS This: Regulatory oversight was and is missing. It looks like Political Cronies and underskilled Government Workers in the trenches over their head allowed the train to run off the tracks - this is beyond criminal as people are losing their jobs and life savings - around the globe!