US Congress Returns to Work after “Santelli” Tea Parties

The Sunday morning news shows featured pundits and politicians squabbling about the “astro-turf” grass roots protests last week - and giving CNBC’s Rick Santelli the credit for “re-starting” the US “revolution”.  It is interesting to watch as the mainstream media attempts  to marginalize and dismiss the growing anger of the general taxpaying public aka: “the silent majority”. <– Watch this Spot!

Meanwhile - the US Congress Returns to Work

Isn’t it amazing how one political side calls the other “uncompromising” and then does exactly what they accuse of the other! A case in point is the unilateral “Cap and Trade” proposal. Democrat Henry Waxman says he will not compromise on the bill despite the obvious criticism that this would only force the creation of pollution - and jobs - outside of the US borders.

Euro - In the Zone ?

The ECB is squabbling about lowering rates to Zero - yet their continues to be open discussion of taking extra ordinary measures… Someting else to watch…

A Look at the Charts

The EUR-USD and USD-CHF normally display a direct inverse correlation.

A look at the Daily Charts above (click to Enlarge) of both of these may dispel any Euro strengthening for the time being as the USD-CHF seems to be trending higher and the Euro is Testing Support.

USD-CAD - Triangle in Play?

USD-CAD April 19, 2009 and Previous Post from April 12, 2009 (click to Enlarge) 

My blog post last week on April 12 showed the Canadian Dollar testing support with a nicetriangle pattern that has re-appeared. That support was shattered the next day and the USD-CAD seems to be grinding it’s way further south for now.   

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Chart Pattern Review - 48 Hours Later 

Two days ago I posted several charts showing some nice chart patterns - indicating to me a 

consolidation was ready to breakout and I labeled the post “Pause Before the Storm” 

Let’s look at the charts side by side now.

 USD-CAD 4 Hour Chart — 300 Pip Triangle Break Out (click to Enlarge)

 EUR-USD 30 Min Chart — Over 400 Pip Trend Channel Break (click to Enlarge)

USD-CHF 2 Hour Chart - Triangle Break - 200 Pips (click to Enlarge)

The above charts are great examples of waiting for High Probability setups on multiple pairs

all setting up at the same time.

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Dec 9, 2008 - Pause Before The Storm?

“Show and Tell” on Chart Patterns

Lot’s of Chart Patterns are Currently Forming on the Currencies - A brief discussion and then a look at some good examples of Triangle Patterns all setting up at the same time on different time frames.  

Furst -  let me give you my “two Ameros” on chart patterns. I consider them all to be “consolidation patterns” and have no bias that - for example,  an “ascending triangle”  is a “bullish pattern” - to me,  it could go in any direction. What I look for is the strength of a well formed pattern.

Is it well formed? 

If I can show people a chart and everyone quickly recognizes a Head and Shoulder Pattern, that’s a strong signal. If there is lot’s of debate - then it’s weak.  Chart Pattern recognition gets fun when you see a pattern forming at the right edge, but not yet completed. Aggressive traders can take a position that the pattern will first form - and then if it does, prepare for the potential price targets.

Don’t Get Bogged Down In Statistics

I debate the statistics some apply to chart patterns. For example: Maybe someone tested 1085 head and shoulder patterns and determined that  83.7% have a probability of completion in a certain circumstance.  So what! The 16.3% chance is just another “50-50″ coin flip if you are only looking at statistics. Well - let’s just say that I can disprove anything with statistics..

US Dollar - Canadian - Dec 9, 2008 - 4 Hour Chart

USD-CADVery Strong Triangle Pattern forming on the Dollar - Loonie. Note the multiple areas where the upward trend Channel has held - and the Resistance forming a classic Triple Top. (click to enlarge)

Euro - US Dollar Daily Chart - Dec 9, 2008

EUR-USD: No Shortage of Chart Patterns Here as we have a pretty good triangle pattern, with a consolidation zone inside. Note the Upward Trend Channel that will be brought into focus on a 30 Min chart Below

EUR-USD: 30 Minute Chart of EUR-USD Shows the Upward Trend Channel and Resistance Levels  (Click to enlarge)

US Dollar - Swiss

USD-CHF: 2 Hour Chart Dec 9, 2008 - Nice Triangle to complement the Euro-USD Pattern (Click to enlarge)

Aussie - US Dollar - Dec 9, 2008 4 Hour Chart

AUD-USD - 4 Hour Chart - Yet Another Triangle! - (Click to enlarge)

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What Now!

Last week I went fundamental - and with good reason. There was more news than I could keep up with - scheduled or otherwise. This week I will stick to the charts - unless if we get some major fundamental issue - like Charlie Gasparino deciding to drive some poor equity into the ground. Bottom line - be ready for anything in this enviornment!

Euro in The Box - Nice Consolidation Zone

Dollar Swiss Continues in Uptrending Channel

Usually the USD-CHF is a Mirror Image of the USD-CHF, however the status quo seems to be in question as the continued Dollar strength against the Swiss is not dargging the Euro down - for now…

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Jerry Furst  is an active trader, educator, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN), He is a Mentor and Trading Coach to Select Clients  Click Here for a Free Self Evaluation Survey.