Euro Dollar Give and Take

EUR-USD 4 Hour Chart (click to Enlarge)

In one months time the Euro ran up approx 2300 pips and on Friday gave back over 800! This after the Euro fell from the 1.4800 range from September 22 to make lows around 1.2300 back on October 27 - These are amazing one month moves!

Monthly Charts Show the Picture

Pound Gets Pounded - Falling Hard  

Above: EUR-GBP Monthly (Click to Enlarge) : Euro - Pound Screaming Towards Parity!

Canadian Loonie Analysis Trend Continues 

USD-CAD 30 Min Charts (click to enlarge) The Down Trend Channel continues - Charts from Dec 15, 16, and 19th show the progression

Dec 9, 2008 - Pause Before The Storm?

“Show and Tell” on Chart Patterns

Lot’s of Chart Patterns are Currently Forming on the Currencies - A brief discussion and then a look at some good examples of Triangle Patterns all setting up at the same time on different time frames.  

Furst -  let me give you my “two Ameros” on chart patterns. I consider them all to be “consolidation patterns” and have no bias that - for example,  an “ascending triangle”  is a “bullish pattern” - to me,  it could go in any direction. What I look for is the strength of a well formed pattern.

Is it well formed? 

If I can show people a chart and everyone quickly recognizes a Head and Shoulder Pattern, that’s a strong signal. If there is lot’s of debate - then it’s weak.  Chart Pattern recognition gets fun when you see a pattern forming at the right edge, but not yet completed. Aggressive traders can take a position that the pattern will first form - and then if it does, prepare for the potential price targets.

Don’t Get Bogged Down In Statistics

I debate the statistics some apply to chart patterns. For example: Maybe someone tested 1085 head and shoulder patterns and determined that  83.7% have a probability of completion in a certain circumstance.  So what! The 16.3% chance is just another “50-50″ coin flip if you are only looking at statistics. Well - let’s just say that I can disprove anything with statistics..

US Dollar - Canadian - Dec 9, 2008 - 4 Hour Chart

USD-CADVery Strong Triangle Pattern forming on the Dollar - Loonie. Note the multiple areas where the upward trend Channel has held - and the Resistance forming a classic Triple Top. (click to enlarge)

Euro - US Dollar Daily Chart - Dec 9, 2008

EUR-USD: No Shortage of Chart Patterns Here as we have a pretty good triangle pattern, with a consolidation zone inside. Note the Upward Trend Channel that will be brought into focus on a 30 Min chart Below

EUR-USD: 30 Minute Chart of EUR-USD Shows the Upward Trend Channel and Resistance Levels  (Click to enlarge)

US Dollar - Swiss

USD-CHF: 2 Hour Chart Dec 9, 2008 - Nice Triangle to complement the Euro-USD Pattern (Click to enlarge)

Aussie - US Dollar - Dec 9, 2008 4 Hour Chart

AUD-USD - 4 Hour Chart - Yet Another Triangle! - (Click to enlarge)

The Week Ahead - Calendar and Webinars

 Summarized Scheduled Economic Calendar - Click Here

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Jerry Furst  is an active trader, educator, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN), He is a Mentor and Trading Coach to Select Clients  Click Here for a Free Self Evaluation Survey.

The Week That Was: Nov 3 - 7 

Last Tuesday’s Historic US election of Barack Obama was followed by disappointing reaction from the markets, with ADP employment numbers confirming contraction on Wednesday. Thursday  got started with a monster 1.5% surprise interest rate cut by the Bank of England, and Friday closed the week with Non Farm Payrolls painting a bleak picture, and then to close out the week we had Consumer Credit jumping 6.9 Billion in September.

The Week Ahead Nov 10-14

This week gives us a breather in scheduled news until Thursday when International Trade numbers coe out with the Weekly Jobless Claims. Friday has import - Export prices, with Retail Sales at 8:30, followed by Consumer Sentiment and Business Inventories at 10:00pm. The equity markets may be tested as AIG and GM will be trying the patience of the media.

Currencies Look Paused For a Break Out

A look at the majors on a Daily or 4 Hour chart shows some triangle and consolidation patterns. Submitted for your approval Note the charts below.  

The Aussie - US Dollar looks Like Consolidation

The Euro Testing Support

US Dollar Approaching Resistance versus Swiiss Franc

Pound Sterling Approaches Support of Descending Triangle and has a Trend Channel to follow.

Click Here to Register for this weeks “1st on Forex” The Week Ahead Webinar  - Every Monday at 12 Noon EDT