Big Week – and Volatility Ahead – CIT Chapter 11?

by Jerry Furst – Sr Analyst  - Investors Education Network.com  

Last Week the  VIX closed over 30 spiking to an intraday high of over 31 on Friday with the DOW dropping 250 points and the S&P 500 dropping over 30 points and the S&P 500 breaking trend line support.

Looking at chart patterns is often called an art and a science. Eventually technical traders will build up a photographic memory of patterns and quickly recognize similarities.  I present to you an example.

The Daily charts of the Euro and the Weekly chart of the VIX  (S&P 500 Volatility Index) may give technical traders time to pause over the next two images I show.  

Chart Pattern Similarities - Euro and Vix - Sr Analyst - Jerry Furst - IEN - Click to Enlarge

Image 1 Above – On the Left – EURO – Daily Chart of March 18, 2009

The Past May Help Us Determine The FutureSimilar Patterns  - Note the Triangle – Failing Head and Shoulders and Trend Line Break which is practically identical to the current Weekly chart of the VIX as of October 30, 2009 – on the Right

Euro-USD Daily - October 30, 2009 - Shows Failed Head and Shoulder Pattern

Image 2 – Euro-USD Daily - October 30, 2009 – Shows the Failed Head and Shoulder completed – extending above and Beyond the Head and Shoulder Pattern. If this pattern is to be repeated on the VIX – Look Out Below!

Lots of News Scheduled as VIX Picks Up

Currency traders may want to consider shifting to tactics and strategies that work best in high volatility markets. Correlations between the equity markets and Forex may fluctuate if fundamentals get in the way.

Last weeks move up in the VIX and triple digit losses on the DOW are looming large over an extended equity market. (Click here to register and tune  into my webinar  on FX Street at 12 Noon Eastern (GMT -5)

Wow – What a Week Ahead Coming Up!

Monday: – Watch the Asian Markets into the US Open. us Data Includes Home Sales  - ISM and Construction Spending.

Tuesday: GBP: PMI , and US Consumer Confidence

Wednesday: – FOMC announcement - leading into Fridays NFP Employment Report

Thursday: BOE and ECB Central Bank Announcements – watch for signs of policy change statements. US Weekly Jobless claims and Fed Balance Sheet data. (click here to register and tune into my webinar on FX Street starting at 1:30pm Eastern (GMT -5)

Friday: NFP-Non Farm Payroll – US Trade and Consumer Credit Data

Traders Be Aware This Sunday – CIT Chapter 11?

CIT Group is reportedly ready to file a “prepackaged bankruptcy plan”. Sources indicate this may occur as early as this Sunday Nov 1. If Chapter 11 is filed – it would qualify as the 5^th largest bankruptcy filing ever ($71 Billion in Assets) in the US.

CNBC’s David Faber broke the news on Friday afternoon Oct 30, and he speculated that preferred shareholders are likely to be “wiped out”. These “preferred Shareholders include the US Taxpayer that had injected $2.3 Billion.

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Jerry Furst  is an active trader, educator, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN), He is a Mentor and Trading Coach to Select Clients  Click Here for a Free Self Evaluation Survey.

Text Watch from the Fed - Watch Live Webinar Coverage

Ben Bernanke and team are widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged

But the reaction will likely take place about 5 minutes after the text statement is digested.

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This comes a week after Bernanke went out on the limb by stating that the recession in the US is probably over and that we have seen the bottom. He then heads out to Pittsburgh for the G20 meeting

Triangle and Inverse Head and Shoulders on the Aussie – Yen

Sept 22, 2009 Aussie Yen shows a Triangle and Inverse Head and Shoulder on the 4 hour chart as we await the FOMC interest rate - policy announcement (Click to Enlarge)

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Jerry Furst  is an active trader, educator, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN), He is a Mentor and Trading Coach to Select Clients  Click Here for a Free Self Evaluation Survey.

Japan’s Complaint Shelved - UN Show Uselessness Again 

Last week’s G20 cooperation fell apart at the United Nations on Sunday as not even a worthless declaration of outrage was made as North Korea brazenly gives the world the one finger salute - with their other finger on “the button”. When will real leadership emerge?

Overgrown Adolescents Playing With Weapons

Can we just put a “Dunce Cap” in these these guys and make them sit in the corner quietly in a comfortable room at Versailles - before we choke on the sand we have our heads buried in… Oh… maybe that’s not sand after all…

Currencies Unfazed to Financial or Military Warfare

Nothing much seems to jolt the market these days - I guess the difference between economic and military warfare is becoming marginalized as Trillions of fiat currency floods the earth - Where’s Noah?

Technical Analysis: Japanese Yen - Gives Ground

Interesting Chart Patterns At Support - Resistance

USD-YEN - Monthly Chart April 5, 2009

Triangle Pattern on MOnthly Chart Above Faces Decision Time as Price Approaches Strong Support - Resistance level of 102 - Meanwhile on the Tewo Hour Chart …

 USD-YEN - Two Hour Chart  April 5, 2009 23:00

 Inverse Head and Shoulder Faces Monthly Resistance at the 102.00 Level

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Jerry Furst  is an active trader, educator, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN), He is a Mentor and Trading Coach to Select Clients  Click Here for a Free Self Evaluation Survey.

The Dollar - Gives and Takes

Jumbo Jets and Jobs Anyone?

Costa Rican Telemarketing @ the Beach?

Joke of the Day: What do you get when you put some laid off Airline workers, cellphone makers, and wall street types together at the unemployment line talking about pensions and vacations? Send me your punch line. (I’m thinking Quentin Tarantino for some reason)

Technically Speaking - More Patterns I See

The Canadian Dollar Setting Up Again?

(Click to Enlarge Chart)

USD-CAD Symmetrical Triangle

appears to be setting up on the 60 minute chart as of 1:30am October 31. Fibonacci levels coincide with the potential price pattern targets at 1.2540 for the upside and 1.700 for the downside support level.

Look back at my previous posts from October 21 - 26 for a text book example of a triangle pattern completing quite nicely.

Live Webinar Monday - The Week Ahead - Free Registration
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Jerry Furst  is an active trader, educator, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN), He is a Mentor and Trading Coach to Select Clients  Click Here for a Free Self Evaluation Survey.  

700 Pip Targets Hit in 48 Hours - Dollar Continues Amazing Rally - Technicals Look Great

Greenspans Admits to Flawed Reality of Greeds Span

The Senate oversight committee with testimony from former chairman Greenspan, Treasury Secretary Snow, and SEC Commissioner Cox was barely covered by the networks. It amazes me that the pundits and judge Judy can talk over and over rule what could have been the most important testimony broadcast to date as to what happened and why there was so little oversight.   Given the fact that Tax payer dollars are being used - you would think the tax payers should be given the opportunity to listen to the testimony - un interrupted if they wanted to.  But no reason to bore the people with the facts from the sources directly - better we get some 4th party opinion to talk over the testimony in between commercials.

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Jerry Furst  is an active trader, educator, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN), He is a Mentor and Trading Coach to Select Clients  Click Here for a Free Self Evaluation Survey.