End of Quantitative Easing? BoE and ECB Signals Coming?
Posted on August 5, 2009 at 22:18 in Fundamental Analysis, News: Scheduled and Breaking, Technical Analysis by Jerry FurstNo Comments »

Watching Paint Dry – Continuing Consolidation?

Euro Continues Consolidation Against the US Dollar

EUR-USD 30 Min  Chart (click to Enlarge) – 3 days of tight consolidation, and continuing!

 

Interest Rate and Trichet Watch

As the Dollar Index slides to fresh lows, the Pound and the Euro have been painting a sideways market ahead of the BoE and ECB announcements tomorrow. Jean Claud Trichet will have his press conference as the US releases Weekly Jobless Claims, and then the Non Farm Payroll on Friday.

It is being hypothesized that the FOMC will allow the Treasury purchase programs to expire in September, and the $1.23 Trillion of mortgage backed securities and other programs may be left to expire at the end of the year – so reports Bloomberg’s Steve Mathews, quoting Laurence Meyer of Macroeconomic Advisers.

The FOMC interest rate announcement on Wed August 12  and I will be conducting a Live Webinar on FX Street – Click Below  to register – Free!

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Jerry Furst  is an active trader, educator, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN), He is a Mentor and Trading Coach to Select Clients  Click Here for a Free Self Evaluation Survey.

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Mid Week Report - Fundamentally Speaking
Posted on December 3, 2008 at 19:31 in Fundamental Analysis by Jerry Furst2 Comments »

Mid Week Report

by Jerry Furst Sr. Analyst

Investors Education Network.com  

  On Monday the NBER (National Bureau of Economic Research) “determined that the decline in economic activity met the standard for a recession” and that it started in December of 2007. I find it audacious that pundits on TV now make statements like “We all knew it was a recession” - When in fact the media was trying it’s best to keep the rose colored glasses on. Back on Jan 22 my blog post was titled, “Recession in Play – Depression on the Way?”

  Also on Monday – Ben Bernanke warned that, “it’s certainly feasible” to cut rates further – thus giving the other central bankers a heads up to act accordingly. The Thanksgiving Day stock market shoppers were treated to a deep discount as the DOW plunged 679 points or -7.7%! 

 Tuesday – The markets took a breather – there was not much news and it appeared as if people were waiting for Wednesday’s data. The US “Big 3” automakers were reported to have their CEO’s driving to Washington,  and the UAW is under pressure to renegotiate it’s 2007 concessions.

 Wednesday – The EU reported poor retail sales and the UK and EU both posted dismal numbers for Services PMI – dropping the Euro around 100 pips and the Pound over 200 pips before the NY session.

 The US then got in the game and posted horrible Non-Mfg ISM numbers and the ADP jobless claims came in at -250,000 where expectations were for -200,000. The Feds Beige Book came in negative as well.

 As of this writing New Zealand is expected to cut rates from 6.5 to 5% at 3pm Eastern time.

 Thursday – Interest Rate and Trichet Watch

Which leads us to the home stretch – as the UK is expected to cut rates from 3 to 2% and the Euro Zone is expected to drop rates from 3.25% to 2.75%. These are big and historic drops in size and in the rate itself. Jean Claude Trichet is scheduled to have his press conference at 8:30 am EDT in which he usually gives some clarity as to where he sees things are – and what the ECB may or may not do in the near term.

 Friday – All eyes are waiting on the Non-Farm payroll report – but will the unemployment rate really be a surprise? Will their be revisions?

 Stay Tuned… 

 

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Jerry Furst  is an active trader, educator, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN), He is a Mentor and Trading Coach to Select Clients  Click Here for a Free Self Evaluation Survey.

To see my Jan 22 – Blog Post “Recession in Play – Depression on the Way? “

http://blogs.fxstreet.com/1stonforex/2008/01/22/recession-in-play-depression-on-the-way/

 

 

 

 

 

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FOMC Announcement Looms as Calls for Cuts Increase
Posted on October 28, 2008 at 21:17 in Fundamental Analysis, News: Scheduled and Breaking, Technical Analysis by Jerry FurstNo Comments »
By Jerry Furst - Sr Analyst
The Bernanke team at the FOMC is expected to lower rates by as much as 50 bps tommorrow. This as Jean Claude Trichet at the ECB, and the Bank of England are under pressure and telegraphing that they too will be lowering rates.
 
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Jerry Furst  is an active trader, educator, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN), He is a Mentor and Trading Coach to Select Clients  Click Here for a Free Self Evaluation Survey.

Video of Results of Monday’s Webinar Technical Analysis

 

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ECB Holds Rate Steady - US Jobless Claims Rise
Posted on October 2, 2008 at 12:34 in Fundamental Analysis, News: Scheduled and Breaking by Jerry Furst1 Comment »
By Jerry Furst - Sr Analyst
 
ECB: Rates on Hold for Now
Jean Claude-Trichet has decided to hold rates steady. During his press conference Trichet is  being quoted as saying that, “Upside inflation risks have diminished somewhat.” His rationale is that the high inflation coming through the pipes is from past oil and food price hikes, and he anticipates these costs coming down.  
This as the European Central Bank head faces the hard realities of the Euro-zone sinking into recession. However,  The phone lines are probably quite active between manu of the central bankers and it may be only a matter of time before rates start coming down from many central banks.
 
Bernanke Surprise Coming?
The odds of a surprise move by the FOMC and Ben Bernanke could potentially come at any time (as always) with an unscheduled rate cut. The questions here if that happens are: how much of a cut, if it will be coordinated with other central banks, or if it causes a domino effect of some kind. Currency traders do not want to be caught by a surprise like this - tight stops may not work.
 
Euro Makes New Lows as Dollar Holds Up
 
The Euro made fresh yearly lows of 1.3854 before rebounding back to the 1.3900 handle after the rate decision. The Greenback is showing superb strength in the face of the potential for a lot of printing. However US Jobless claims came out higher as Non Farm Payroll is due up tomorrow.
  
Stabilization-Rescue-Bailout Drama Continues 
 
In the evening of October 1, The US Senate passed a “Stabilization” bill that is being passed over to the House. The questions are will the bill pass, and will it work as intended to stave off more serious issues pending. It’s amazing to watch  the political gears turn so fast - with so many citizens finally waking up - after so many players being asleep at the wheel for so long.
 
Trade Safe and or Enjoy the Show!
 
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Jerry Furst  is an active trader, educator, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN), He is a Mentor and Trading Coach to Select Clients  Click Here for a Free Self Evaluation Survey.

 
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