Watching Paint Dry – Continuing Consolidation?

Interest Rate and Trichet Watch

As the Dollar Index slides to fresh lows, the Pound and the Euro have been painting a sideways market ahead of the BoE and ECB announcements tomorrow. Jean Claud Trichet will have his press conference as the US releases Weekly Jobless Claims, and then the Non Farm Payroll on Friday.

It is being hypothesized that the FOMC will allow the Treasury purchase programs to expire in September, and the $1.23 Trillion of mortgage backed securities and other programs may be left to expire at the end of the year – so reports Bloomberg’s Steve Mathews, quoting Laurence Meyer of Macroeconomic Advisers.

The FOMC interest rate announcement on Wed August 12  and I will be conducting a Live Webinar on FX Street – Click Below  to register – Free!

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Jerry Furst  is an active trader, educator, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN), He is a Mentor and Trading Coach to Select Clients  Click Here for a Free Self Evaluation Survey.

Mid Week Report

by Jerry Furst Sr. Analyst

Investors Education Network.com  

  On Monday the NBER (National Bureau of Economic Research) “determined that the decline in economic activity met the standard for a recession” and that it started in December of 2007. I find it audacious that pundits on TV now make statements like “We all knew it was a recession” - When in fact the media was trying it’s best to keep the rose colored glasses on. Back on Jan 22 my blog post was titled, “Recession in Play – Depression on the Way?”

  Also on Monday – Ben Bernanke warned that, “it’s certainly feasible” to cut rates further – thus giving the other central bankers a heads up to act accordingly. The Thanksgiving Day stock market shoppers were treated to a deep discount as the DOW plunged 679 points or -7.7%! 

 Tuesday – The markets took a breather – there was not much news and it appeared as if people were waiting for Wednesday’s data. The US “Big 3” automakers were reported to have their CEO’s driving to Washington,  and the UAW is under pressure to renegotiate it’s 2007 concessions.

 Wednesday – The EU reported poor retail sales and the UK and EU both posted dismal numbers for Services PMI – dropping the Euro around 100 pips and the Pound over 200 pips before the NY session.

 The US then got in the game and posted horrible Non-Mfg ISM numbers and the ADP jobless claims came in at -250,000 where expectations were for -200,000. The Feds Beige Book came in negative as well.

 As of this writing New Zealand is expected to cut rates from 6.5 to 5% at 3pm Eastern time.

 Thursday – Interest Rate and Trichet Watch

Which leads us to the home stretch – as the UK is expected to cut rates from 3 to 2% and the Euro Zone is expected to drop rates from 3.25% to 2.75%. These are big and historic drops in size and in the rate itself. Jean Claude Trichet is scheduled to have his press conference at 8:30 am EDT in which he usually gives some clarity as to where he sees things are – and what the ECB may or may not do in the near term.

 Friday – All eyes are waiting on the Non-Farm payroll report – but will the unemployment rate really be a surprise? Will their be revisions?

 Stay Tuned… 

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Jerry Furst  is an active trader, educator, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN), He is a Mentor and Trading Coach to Select Clients  Click Here for a Free Self Evaluation Survey.

To see my Jan 22 – Blog Post “Recession in Play – Depression on the Way? “

http://blogs.fxstreet.com/1stonforex/2008/01/22/recession-in-play-depression-on-the-way/

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Jerry Furst  is an active trader, educator, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN), He is a Mentor and Trading Coach to Select Clients  Click Here for a Free Self Evaluation Survey.