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EUR/USD trades with negative bias, holds above 1.0700 as traders await US PCE Price Index
EUR/USD edges lower during the Asian session on Friday and moves away from a two-week high, around the 1.0740 area touched the previous day. Spot prices trade around the 1.0725-1.0720 region and remain at the mercy of the US Dollar price dynamics ahead of the crucial US data.
USD/JPY jumps above 156.00 on BoJ's steady policy
USD/JPY has come under intense buying pressure, surging past 156.00 after the Bank of Japan kept the key rate unchanged but tweaked its policy statement. The BoJ maintained its fiscal year 2024 and 2025 core inflation forecasts, disappointing the Japanese Yen buyers.
Gold price flatlines as traders look to US PCE Price Index for some meaningful impetus
Gold price lacks any firm intraday direction and is influenced by a combination of diverging forces. The weaker US GDP print and a rise in US inflation benefit the metal amid subdued USD demand. Hawkish Fed expectations cap the upside as traders await the release of the US PCE Price Index.
Sei Price Prediction: SEI is in the zone of interest after a 10% leap
Sei price has been in recovery mode for almost ten days now, following a fall of almost 65% beginning in mid-March. While the SEI bulls continue to show strength, the uptrend could prove premature as massive bearish sentiment hovers above the altcoin’s price.
US core PCE inflation set to signal firm price pressures as markets delay Federal Reserve rate cut bets
The core PCE Price Index, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, is seen as the more influential measure of inflation in terms of Fed positioning. The index is forecast to rise 0.3% on a monthly basis in March, matching February’s increase.
DEEPER DIVE
Cyclical outlook: Known unknowns
In the US, the latest Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia paints a rather upbeat picture of the economic outlook. A similar survey of the ECB points towards a gradual pickup in growth this year.
Building the future
There is a construction boom underway that is quietly transforming the production capabilities and other aspects of the US economy. The fastest-growing category within nonresidential construction in recent years has been manufacturing.
Addressing the public debt challenge in the EU
Recently an agreement has been reached between representatives of the European Council, the European Parliament, and the European Commission on a new economic governance framework.
FXS Signals
Technical Confluences Detector
XAU/USD holds around $2,330 after dismal US data Premium
Spot Gold remains confined to familiar levels, trading at around $2,330 in the American afternoon. XAU/USD experienced some volatility following the release of US macroeconomic data, which put a sour taste in traders’ mouths. The country released the preliminary estimate of the Q1 Gross Domestic Product, which showed the economy grew at an annual pace of 1.6% in the three months to March, missing the expected 2.5% and much weaker than the 3.4% posted in the last quarter of 2023.
Furthermore, the BEA reported that the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index rose at a 3.4% annualized pace for the quarter, much higher than the previous 1.8% and the biggest gain in a year. In a few words, growth slowed, but the economy continued expanding while inflation picked up. Such a scenario further delays a potential rate cut from the Fed. The US Dollar surged while Wall Street plummeted as an immediate reaction to the news. The USD, however, was unable to preserve its momentum as US data throughout the week has been disappointing.
CRYPTOCURRENCIES
Coinbase lists WIF perpetual futures contract as it unveils plans for Aevo, Ethena, and Etherfi
Dogwifhat perpetual futures began trading on Coinbase International Exchange and Coinbase Advanced on Thursday. However, the futures contract failed to trigger a rally for the popular meme coin.
Stripe looks to bring back crypto payments as stablecoin market cap hits all-time high
Stripe announced on Thursday that it would add support for USDC stablecoin, as the stablecoin market exploded in March, according to reports by Cryptocompare.
Ethereum cancels rally expectations as Consensys sues SEC over ETH security status
Ethereum (ETH) appears to have returned to its consolidating move on Thursday, canceling rally expectations. This comes after Consensys filed a lawsuit against the Securities & Exchange Commission (SEC) and insider sources informing Reuters of the unlikelihood of a spot ETH ETF approval in May.
FBI cautions against non-KYC Bitcoin and crypto money transmitting services as SEC goes after MetaMask
US Federal Bureau of Investigations (FBI) has issued a caution to Bitcoiners and cryptocurrency market enthusiasts, coming on the same day as when the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is on the receiving end of a lawsuit, with a new player adding to the list of parties calling for the regulator to restrain its hand.
THE STOCK OF THE DAY
Rubrik scores successful IPO as backer MSFT dips before earnings rally Premium
Rubrik (RBRK), a cybersecurity firm backed by Microsoft (MSFT), saw its stock ignore the broad market downturn on Thursday to become the bright spot in a melancholy landscape. RBRK stock closed its first session at $37.00 for a 15.6% gain.
ECONOMIC CALENDAR
WEEKLY FORECAST
EUR/USD: Euro touches five-month low on growing expectations that ECB will ease before Fed Premium
EUR/USD managed to counter a poor start of the week and reverse course despite the European currency slipping back to the 1.0600 key support against the US Dollar (USD), or five-month lows.
GBP/USD: More downside for Pound Sterling remains on cards Premium
The Pound Sterling (GBP) accelerated its south run against the US Dollar (USD), knocking the GBP/USD pair to levels unseen since late November 2023.
US Dollar: Holding up gains amid hawkish Fed, geopolitical tensions Premium
The Greenback ended the week barely changed after the sharp increase recorded in the previous one, despite hitting new five-month peaks in the boundaries of 106.50 when tracked by the USD Index (DXY) on April 16.
Gold: Will geopolitics continue to drive XAU/USD? Premium
Gold (XAU/USD) price fluctuated in a relatively narrow range this week following the record-setting rally. Investors will continue to pay close attention to headlines surrounding the Iran-Israel conflict and scrutinize key macroeconomic data releases from the US next week.
Bitcoin: BTC post-halving rally could be partially priced in Premium
Bitcoin (BTC) price briefly slipped below the $60,000 level for the last three days, attracting buyers in this area as the fourth BTC halving is due in a few hours. Is the halving priced in for Bitcoin? Or will the pioneer crypto note more gains in the coming days?
Week ahead – US GDP and BoJ decision on top of next week’s agenda
US GDP, core PCE and PMIs the next tests for the Dollar. Investors await BoJ for guidance about next rate hike. EU and UK PMIs, as well as Australian CPIs also on tap. Earnings season heats up as tech giants report.
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