Posted on July 31, 2008 at 15:20 in Uncategorized by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »

The GBP/Usd has reached the zone around 1.9920/30 and should offer form here, a rebound to 1.9900/05 and probably more to the zone around 1.9880. Above maximum the pair could continue to next resistance around 1.9962 tops for today.


Posted on July 31, 2008 at 14:36 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »

Clear in charts, the US data was quite awful, with unemployment climbing to 448K, the worst reading since December 2003, while GDB gowned less than expected to 1.9%. Reaching already daily highs, let’s see if the 20 next minutes gave us some clues about further movements.


Posted on July 31, 2008 at 13:46 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »

The Gbp is moving sideways, yet also like yesterday, under the key level around 1.9830/40: above this zone next resistance will be at the zone around 1.9870/80, followed by 1.9920 and finally 1.9962, the descendant trend line mentioned yesterday. To the downside, the pair has find support around 1.9781, and if broken could trigger an interesting bearish rally first to 1.9745, yesterday’s minimum, and finally 1.9710.

 

The Usd/Jpy remains bullish close to the congestion zone between 108.33/41, first resistance for today, although the pair seems ready to continue to 108.59, this year maximum. Above this last point, we could see a quick upside run first to 108,82 and finally the zone around 109.10. Supports form here will be at 108.00 the zone around 107.60 and finally but not seen for now, 107.20.

jpy


Posted on July 31, 2008 at 12:58 in Uncategorized by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »

Not far from where they were yesterday, majors are moving in ranges, after reaching new minimums against dollar.

The Eur/Usd continues looking bearish in daily charts, although 4 hours is suggesting some bullish movements for today, with CCI cutting the 0 line to the upside. Still fighting under the daily trend line broken, the pair will have to confirm above it, today around 1.5630 to continue to the upside, to the zone around 1.5675, a 4 hours descendant trend line, that should hold for today. To the downside, supports will be pretty much like yesterday, the zone around 1.5650/60, followed by yesterday’s minimum 1.5621 and finally the zone around 1.5487.

 eur


Posted on July 31, 2008 at 12:07 in Uncategorized by Valeria Bednarik2 Comments »

Hi everybody, hope you’re fine. I’m just sitting here, wondering what’s new under the sun, to comment with you. The fact is that’s not much: early news in Europe and England shown that the tentacles of economic slowdown has certainly reached the other coast of the Atlantic, and the U.S. is not the only one in trouble; however, I can also remember thinking this in past December, past February, past April.. saying that it was just a matter of time to see a dollar recovery, (let’s not forget, it is still the reference currency all around the world)but months pass and greenback continued falling against it’s major rivals. I have no more information that any of you can find on the Internet; I keep believing that only rates movements can change the dominant trend (and by the way, the Federal Reserve is scheduled to meet next Tuesday) and that gold and oil are kind of thermometers of market feelings about dollar. Anyway, between today and tomorrow, we have plenty of heavy economic data in the U.S. and I’m just wondering if we are not at the beginning of the so long expected greenback bulls back on the tape.

Maybe a final note: I don’t expect it to be fast or furious: the rates differential weights lots against dollar. But with such a worldwide slowdown which is the currency to buy? How many will run back to safe heavens? Let me know what you think!

These are the most relevant news for today East Time:

08:30 US GDP-Adv. Q2 (Expected 2.3% Previous 1.0%) and Chain Deflator-Adv. (Expected 2.3% Previous 2.7%)

08:30 US Initial Claims 07/26 (Expected 395K Previous 406K)

09:45 US Chicago PMI July (Expected 49.0 Previous 49.6)


Posted on July 30, 2008 at 11:34 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria Bednarik3 Comments »

The Eur/Usd is quoting around 1.5600, after breaking yesterday, an ascendant daily trend line coming from 1.4438. A few minutes ago, the pair even completed a pullback to the broken line, and seems to be forming a flag in 4 hours charts: a flag is a continuation figure, meaning that if the pair manages to confirm under 1.5560, the base of the small 4 hours charts channel, it should continue to the downside, more or less the same amount of pips of the flagpole, around 160. Anyway, this does not mean it will happen in a few hours, but should be a certain downtrend confirmation with supports at a congestion zone between 1.5525/33, followed by 1.5502 and finally the zone around 1.5483. A confirmation above 1.5628 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of yesterday’s fall) will denied the formation, and the pair will be targeting the zone around 1.5670, next resistance for today, followed finally by 1.5690/1.5710.

eur

The Gbp/Usd, is fighting right now the key level around 1.9835/45, after breaking to the downside also a long ascendant daily trend line. Above actual level the pair could continue to the zone around 1.9870, pullback to the broken line, that should contain the upside in order to continue the bearish rally. Above that point (not likely at least for now), next resistance will be at 1.9910. To the downside, the pair must pass under 1.9795, to continue to yesterday’s low zone around 1.9750/60, that once broken, will take the pair to 1.9710.

gbp

The Usd/Jpy remain bullish in bigger charts, but seems ready for a downside correction, after continuing it’s rally: under today’s minimum the pair will find an interesting support at 107.56, where the pair should offer some rebound. If this level is broken, next support will be at 107.20 and finally 106.84, yet this point seems unlikely for today. To the upside, again the 108.00 will be the first level to pass, followed by 108.28, yesterday’s high, and finally 108.59

jpy


Posted on July 30, 2008 at 10:53 in Starting the day by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »

Hello everybody how are you? A jump in Consumer Confidence in the US, together with falling oil and gold prices, pushed dollar to a quite impressive recovery all across the board, pushing majors trough important support or resistance zones: however, a continuation of this dollar bull will depend on today’s probable correction length, as majors seems ready to push those levels back.

These are the most relevant news for today:

5:00 EUR Consumer Confidence (Expected -19 Previous -17)

8:15 USD ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Expected -58K Previous -79K)

10:35 USD Crude Oil Inventories (Expected -1.2M Previous -1.6M)


Posted on July 29, 2008 at 14:16 in Uncategorized by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »

The GBP/Usd is rebounding as expected giving us a 25 pips fast opportunity. The chances remain to the upside, but the pair could find some resistance around 1.9890. If passes, then watch for 1.9940 zone.


Posted on July 29, 2008 at 13:30 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »

Gbp/Usd is falling quick yet short term charts are announcing a probable bullish correction to the zone around 1.9940. I believe a bullish rebound around 1.9855/60 is likely as long as 1.9830 remains intact. take a look at this 30 minutes chart:

gbp


Posted on July 29, 2008 at 12:46 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »

The Usd/Jpy remains bullish in bigger charts, and I expect the pair to break to the upside with strength in the next days; for now, the pair remains contained by the 108.00 and and pretty much like yesterday, resistances will  be around 108.30 and then 108.59, this year maximum: that will be the point to break in order to trigger the longer term upside rally I’m expecting, at least to the zone around 110.00. To the downside, the pair is resting in an ascendant trend line right now around 107.48, first support for today, followed by the zone around 107.05/20, that should hold for today. A confirmation under that point, could delay the bullish continuation, yet 106.55 should give some interesting rebounds.

jpy

Older posts »