The Eur/Usd is pretty much like yesterday, consolidating between 1.4680/1.4800, yet slightly bullish in 4 hours charts: indicators are quite flat for me today, not saying much: above actual maximum at 1.4767, the pair will find next resistance around 1.4795/4805 zone, a descendant trend line and a quite interesting maximums zone. Above this, next resistance will be at 1.4835 and finally yet not seen, the zone around 1.4861. Supports from here will be 1.4720, the zone around 1.,4680 and finally 1.4663.

The Gbp/Usd remains bearish in bigger charts, quoting right now around 1.8286, with a first support at the actual minimums zone between 1.8240/59, followed by 1.8210 and finally the zone around 1.8170, a strong zone that should hold yet not seen today. To the upside, 1.8324, a descendant 4 hours trend line will be first resistance for the following hours, and above this, 1.8373 and 1.8420 will be next bullish targets.

The Usd/Jpy is moving in a descendant channel, and already reached the base around 108.42 in actual 4 hours candle. To the upside, the pair needs to break above 108.84 zone, to continue in that direction, first to the zone around 109.10 and finally 109.40/50. Under the base of the channel and first support from here at 108.42 the pair could continue to 108.15 and 108.00 that has probed to be a tough point in previous weeks. under that point, the rally could extend to 107.70, turning the pair bearish for the next couple of weeks.

Hi everybody how are you? To be honest, by this time of the week I’m so tired! (here is 4:30 am, the time I woke up to start the blog). But you’re not here to read about me, but about market reactions right? ok, well let me tell you what I see right now: the fast and furious dollar rally these last 3 weeks, was due as I told you more to other currencies weakness that own strength, and seems that that initial positive over reaction about greenback is now being doubt: chances have turned to a major correction better than a continuation for the next days, generally speaking, and believe it or not, I can see that in most currencies but Pound, that by this time is the greater loser: almost 2000 pips, and despite the daily oversold state of the currency, I can not see a clear correction from here yet. Today is the last day of the month, so we could see some profit taking of dollar bulls, that could give some more bullish strength to it’s counterparts. A tiny rise in Gold and Oil is also helping to send dollar down, yet still, both are quite far of last month levels: only above 860.- and 130.- respectively, they could gain more bullish momentum and in consequence give some bearish to greenback. I will be back in a few minutes, with some technical analysis.

These are the most relevant news for today, East Time:

05:00 EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence (Expected -20 Previous -20)

08:30 Personal Income for July (Expected-0.2% Previous 0.1%) and Personal Spending (Expected 0.2% Previous 0.6%)

09:45 US Chicago PMI August (Expected 50.0 Previous 50.8)

10:00 US Michigan Sentiment-Rev. August (Expected 62.0 Previous 61.7)

04:00 EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index Estimate (Expected 3.9% Previous 4.1%)

Have a great trading day!

The Usd/Jpy is just above 109.00 and 4 hours candles are suggesting a bullish reversal, depending on next candle opening yet actual long downside shadow suggest the pair has not enough bearish strength, so above 109.60 the pair will likely run up to the zone around 109.55, strong zone these last days. Above this last, 109.80 will be final objective for today. Supports from here will be at 109.84, the zone around 108.60 that if broken will deny previous view and probably take the pair to 108.36.

The Usd/Chf seems to be forming one of the more reliable figures, a head and shoulders: Quoting right now around 1.0914 (the figure neck zone) a 4 hours candle opening under it could signal a bearish continuation of around 170 pips, the final target of the figure (of course not straight and not today, but in the next couple of days). In between the pair will find supports today at the zone around 1.0880/90, followed by 1.0848 and finally 1.0824. Resistances from actual price will be at 1.0930, the tough zone around 1.0950 and finally 1.0992.

The Eur/Usd is quoting around 1.4760, slightly bullish in 4 hours charts, but loosing steam after rebounding around 1.4810. Above 1.4785 the pair will try to retest the strong zone around 1.4810, yet only a confirmation above that point could trigger some more bullish for today, to the zone around 1.4835. Supports from here will be at 1.4740. followed by a congestion zone between dynamic support formed by an ascending trend line right now around 1.4720and 1.4710, and finally the zone around 1.4683.

The Gbp/Usd hasn’t change much since yesterday, as the pair remains under bearish pressure: with a first support around 1.8336, under this point the pair will quickly target 1.8310 and finally yesterday’s minimum at 1.8285, looking as a probable bottom for today. To the upside, the pair will find it’s first resistance at 1.8415, a descendant trend line that only if broken could trigger some bullish in the pair, first to the zone around 1.8467 and finally but not seen, 1.8500.

Hello everybody hope you are fine. Majors are slowly recovering grown against greenback, but with mixed results: while Euro raise helped by some hawkish remarks from ECB members that lowered chances of a rate cut, also supported by a  rise in crude prices, the Pound remains weak all across the board. Meanwhile Japanese yen is likely to continue it’s strength as Japan has been less affected by the global slowdown. Yet generally speaking majors remain in ranges for now, consolidating before next substantial move. I will post the levels I believe majors need to break trough in order to start that move, after my daily analysis.

These are the most relevant news for today, East Time:

08:30 US Prelim GDP for the Q2 (Expected 2.7% Previous 1.9%) and Chain Deflator, expected with no changes at 1.1%

08:30 US Initial Claims 08/23 425K 432K

Have a great day!

The Eur/Usd is quoting around 1.4720, slightly bullish in 4 hours charts, although the pair has a tough congestion zone between 1.4740/60, that won’t be easy to break. Only a confirmation above this zone, could bring some more bullish in the next hours, being next resistances at 1.4805 and finally 1.4835, a descendant trend line. Supports from here will be at 1.4704 and the zone around 1.4680. Under this last, expect the pair to regain bearish momentum.

The Gbp/Usd remains bearish yet quite over sold in daily charts, suggesting a bullish correction for the days to come; also indicators are pointing higher, with CCi cutting the 0 line downside up, and momentum also pointing up. Today, the pair needs to confirm above the 20SMA right now around 1.8490, to continue to the upside, with next resistances around 1.8538 and finally the zone around 1.8585. Supports from here will be at 1.8405 and 1.8363.

The Usd/Jpy continues bearish in 4 hours charts, and under actual minimum at 108.70, the pair will find next important support at the very close 108.50 zone, that seems strong enough to hold today. Yet a break trough that level, could send the pair first to 108.33 and finally the zone around 108.10. Resistances from here will be at  109.10 followed by the tough zone around 109.55.

Hello everybody hope you are fine. FOMC Minutes didn’t surprise yesterday, and if fact downgraded growth forecast for the next quarters; saying inflation is still concerning, they also expected it to go down for the rest of the year, the in between lines reading suggest there will be no rate hikes in the U.S. in the next months. Majors recover  ground during the Asian session, helped by rising oil and gold prices, yet nothing that suggest a longer term trend change for now. I will come back in a few minutes with some technical’s

These are the most relevant news for today, East Time:

Tentative EUR German Prelim CPI  (Expected -0.2% Previous 0.6%)

8:30 USD Core Durable Goods Orders (Expected -0.5% Previous 2.0%)

10:35 US Crude Inventories 08/23 (Previous 9390K)

Have a great trading day!

As I say in previous post, stocks seems to be ruling market reactions, although Euro and GBP are rising a bit more than what I expected previous to news releases, yet Japanese yen is doing his job; I think above 1.4670 zone we could see Euro extending winnings and Pound above 1.8410 zone. Japanese yen could extend winnings to 109.10, but needs to clearly break under 109.00 to confirm a continuation.

I have received a comment about U.S. data to come, and that give me the chance to make this post (Tks St_Fx!). In the next couple of hours, we will have three major releases of the American situation: number one, a Consumer confidence survey, expected to the upside; number two, New Home Sales, expected with no changes from previous month, and number three later FOMC Minutes. Reading the general number, one could expect the dollar to continue strenghtening in the American Session, yet there is much more than pure numbers to this reports, see, since Monday  the problems of Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae have been spreading, and there are rumors about more U.S. financial institutions facing loses from mortgage exposure, so I believe that of the two first reports, New Home Sales will be the one that could shake a bit more the market: a good reading there will probably mean a dollar continuation, while a bad number (not likely yet as all here possible) a correction (forget reversals for now). Most weak currencies against greenback are in fact Euro and Pound, so there will be the most important reactions I believe. On the other hand, Japanese yen remains strong as it is responding to U.S. stocks rather to other currency strength or weakness (like the both Europeans). I guess (and at least till FOMC) U.S. Stocks will “rule” majors behavior, meaning a fall in stocks will mean a a raise in Jpy yet not NOT Euro or GBP strength but a “hold around here” situation till FOMC Minutes. And well.. predicting market reactions to a certain number of reports… is as I said, a “guess” that’s why I prefer technical trading: I  believe a break trough key points could trigger rallies, and not news.

FOMC minutes finally, well.. dovish, hawkish… would market care if they announce a future hike/cut/nothing? let me be honest: I don’t know. Those kind of reports are for me a wait and see for the first half hour, till I consider market digest the news. Let’s see where major are after the first two, and then will see.

Technically speaking and ignoring first spikes by the time of the reports, majors have run a quite interesting number of pips, and should offer some correction  before continuing, yet under actual minimums a continuation is more likely!

The Eur/Usd has reached a fresh minimum at 1.4596, where the rally was halted for now: under that minimum next support will be at 1.4559, followed by 1.4512, tops for today, and an interesting congestion zone that should offer a more important bullish rebound. To the upside, resistances will be around 1.4635, 1,4670 and finally the zone around 1.4700.

The Gbp/Usd is quoting at 1.8391, and continue pushing to the downside despite the oversold state. Under actual minimum, next support will be at 1.8330/40 congestion zone in the pair, followed finally by 1.8312. Resistances from here will be at 1.8430 and the zone around 1.8485.

The Usd/Jpy remains under 110.00 and with no signs of a bullish continuation for now. Quoting around 109.85, only above 110.10 we could find some bullish confirmation to the zone around 110.40 and finally 110.66. Supports from here will be, like yesterday the congestion zone around 109.55 and finally 109.10.