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As I been saying these last days, and can’t find yet a floor to this free fall we are seeing in the Pound. A probable target to this movement could be the zone around 1.7300, where we find and ascendant trend line in monthly charts, also the 200 EMA in that time frame: take a look at this monthly chart:
Turning to smaller charts, indicators show the pair is way too over sold, yet from a technical perspective, there are no signs of a reversal in this movement: for today, under actual minimum zone around 1.7665, next target will be at 1.7610/20 zone, and finally 1.7585. resistances forn actual price will be at 1.7735, followed by the zone around 1.7780 and finally 1.7810.
Dear Valeria Bednarik,
GBP fall is dragging all other pairs and USD sentiment is becoming more stronger now.But why USD/YEN is becoming stronger against USD - is it an exception? also
the rise in USD/CHF is lesser than EURO,AUD drop is more than USD/CAD rise.I find the big players handling the crosses more and there they find more money earning porency.When they rised GBP to 2.11 from 2.03 just opposite of what we are seeing now has happend- hope you might have observed the same.
Tomorrow being important date for EURO and GBP - I am finding the current drop is anticlimax to the climax move.
I like to know your views please.
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman
Dear Dr. Sivaraman:
Thanks for taking the time of reading my blog. Trading is a daily challenge, and I guess that’s
what make it atractive to me: we have lots of things to take care of, lots of tools, and a big
part of the daily challenge is to choose the right one, fot actual market sentiment that always
remains me Rigoletto: La Dona e mobile, the market more.
Dollar recovery was just a matter of time, and actually by the ends of July I comment we where
at the beginning of it, particulary against European currencies, whose economies were showing
permanent slowdown signs while the rulers were screaming the contrary: as I said, it was a matter
of time to see the bomb exploid in their hands, just I really wasn´t expecting it to be so fast and so
furious. I can see major trend changes, but to be honest I can´t detecte the exact moment that will
occur: being a conservative person, I usually wait for confirmations before suggesting trades.
Anyway regarding to your questions, yes I believe the Japanse Yen is an exception as the slowdown
is not affecting Japan as much as Europe, and is a more independent currency.Swiss Franc rise is
lesser youre right,but let’s remember the Usd/Chf moves in daily average, a smaller number of pips
than the Eur/Usd, yet looking at daily charts they still continue moving like in front of a mirror most of
the times. The same goes for AUD and CAD, that they are dancing with gold and oil retracements.
I agree complity yes, this movements are big players handling, and Thrusday and Friday will be
quite important days for majors, that can give us more clear clues of what should happen: myself
I believe there should be an upside correction in both Eur and Gbp, it just I still can see a technical
nor fundamental confirmation of that, neither a bottom to actual fall; I feel it is close but one thing
that really took me long to understand is that feelings have nothing to do in my trading. I mean, after
all this hundreds of pips down in such a short time, mathematical statistics says a correction should
be underway quickly: as i can’t see it yet, I just stick to my guns, and wait for technical levels to be
broken in either way.
Always a pleasure to share market views with you!
Regards
Val
Dear Val
Thanks for your nice views and comments about the market.I propose we can have frequent such interactions and sharing of view similar or different,that could help the readers a lot to get various views about the market.I wish to make more frequent interactions with you as you give daily the updates in the blog.I will also give the link of our discussions in my blog.So it is not the same content linked instead our sharing of views could be linked.
we can post comments in both of our blogs.
Thanks for the interaction.
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman
Interesting comments, don’t try to guess where the Mr Market is heading. He has already shown you this quite clearly. As a trader we need to maximise our gains from what Mr Martet tells us. Don’t argue or guess as its all clear for all to see!! Open your eyes and it is there.
Dr. Sivaraman & Valeria Bednarik,
How do you see EUR to Dollar in next 5 to 7 days? Do you think it will go back t o 1.50 levels? What is your take on long term expectation of Dollar with Euro till end of the year?
Is it better to convert funds at origin (In Europe to Dollar first) or send in Euro from Europe and let bank convert it in US? Your suggestion would be appreciated.
Thanks
Divyesh Patel
Sharing of views ……
For the benefit of the readers we the bloggers in fxstreet.com will bring more of sharing of views during different market conditions,that may help the readers to get how the market is viewed during uncertain conditions.
I have asked some questions abo…
Dr Sivaraman, of course, I would love to. Having different views is what make things interesting: imagine how boring life could be, if we all have the same perspective. It will be a pleasure and an honor.
Leon, I guess I don’t make myself clear as I wanted: i can guess or feel, but at the trading moment I follow technicals: trading is maths and statiscticaly, there should be a correction. Indicators are maths also, and they are not announcing it yet so, I follow the trend surely, but not forgetting the rest.
Esteem Dyvesh, thanks for your kind comments. The pair has reached a quite strong support level around 1.4385, and seems quite over sold in daily charts, so a correction to the upsode seems likely although I see it near 1.4900 more than 1,50. Regarding to the longer tell, well, only under 1,4000 a six year ascendat trend line in bigger charts, and a confirmation under it, could send the pair to thhe zone of 1,36 yet theres a long way to go before it. Regarding to your exchange question, I live far away from both countrys, and not quite sure about their exchance or taxes policy, however I believe converting dounds in origin seems always to be cheaper if that’s what your asking
Regards
Val
Divyesh Divyesh Patel
In my opinion EURO is expected to rise more till November and then the correction against USD is expected towards close of the year.As for as fund transfer is concerned- it is better to convert to stronger to weaker currencies and then back to the other once the later becomes strong.Since you have asked me the question here I am replying along with Val.
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman
Valeria,
Appreciate your last feedback.
Any hope for 1.45 now with the fall of Euro today? Any change on your expectation for it to rise to 1.47 in next 4 days now?
Thanks
Divyesh
Esteem Dyvesh: thanks for your comments.From actual price, Eur/Usd must regain the 1.4385/1.4420 zone to actually regain some bullish momentum, but excuse me if i miss understood you, i never said in 4 or 6 or 100 days. I wtch for levels: with the key zone mentioned above broken, chances remain to the downside, and despite actual Non Farm Payroll readings, right now a test of 1.40 in the medium term seems more likely that 1.47
regards
Val