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Attached, you will find a monthly Eur/Usd chart, showing an ascendant trend line coming from 0.8562, date February 2002. The pair has rebounded around 9 times in such line, and as we know, the more times price rebound in a trend line, the stronger it is, but at the same time, if the line gets broken then, the stronger will the continuation movement, in this case, to the downside. The line for this September is around 1.3850, so a confirmation under it, meaning a weakly opening, or better, October starting under it, will mean further long term fall in the pair. Usually this lines offer a quite interesting rebound on the first attempt a pair make to break them so, be aware that the zone around 1.3850 should offer enough support for a bullish rebound. On the contrary, if it gets broken, the 1.33.14 zone, 61.8% Fibonacci rally 1.1640/1.6038 will be exposed.
For today, under actual minimum at 1.3893, the pair will find it’s next support at the mentioned zone at 1.3850, followed finally by 1.3826 (Remember such long term line, needs a bigger candle opening confirmation to be consider broken). Resistances fron actual price will be at 1.3946, followed by 1.3990 and finally the zone aroudn 1.4040.
Hi,
I completely agree with your View.
I do expect a strong support around 1.3850/3666 levels, but on a monthly or weekly basis a close below that levels will confirm euro is heading towards 1.33/30 area before we can see some meaningful bounce.
But again any uptick in eurusd should be treated as a selling opportunity as USD bottom is confirmed.
I request you to post next time your view on GBPUSD.
both long term as well as short term
regards
Krishna
Hi Krishna, thanks for your kind comment. I posted the GBP/Usd long term already,hope you find it useful too.
Altough is early to confirm a longer term in either way (we have already seen a rebound barely 30 pips from the monthly line, yet the pair is far away form bullish) I will post longer term views, as soon as I see a confirmation.
Regards
Val