Looking at longer term charts, in this case monthly, the pair has broken the ascendant trend line that we have been following just in the first days of the month (meaning that still there is no full confirmation from that side, although if we turn the chart to weekly, the line has been broken giving a first bearish confirmation in longer term); on the other hand, we have the RSI crossing to the downside the 50 line, suggesting also more bearish continuation, after spending months well over bought; also notice the pair is breaking under the 61.8% level of the last up leg, 1.2483/1.6038. Although the violence and speed of these last 3 months fall, the pair remains bearish in the longer term, and the target zone I’m considering for this movement is @ 1.2900, as I see a huge congestion around it, with many monthly minimums and maximums. Of course, don´t wait for a straight rally (sure, it could happen, as all in forex market) but still there are chances of a weekly pullback to the broken trend line (around 1.3920): failure to confirm above it, after pullback is complete, will be another huge confirmation of the bearish trend in the longer term, also if the pullbacks reaches the broken 61.8% and is unable to open above.

   MONTHLY CHART

 WEEKLY CHART

Regarding today, the pair has found a bottom around 1.3542, and 4 hours charts look quite oversold, yet nothing the pair is paying too much attention: we could see some bullish correction, that will find resistances at 1.3640, 1.3682, and the zone around 1.3710, above which, the pair could attempt to fill the opening gap @ 1.3765, yet I can see it right now as highly probable; to the downside, under today’s minimum the pair will find next supports at 1.3520 and better, the zone around 1.3470