This has been for far, my favorite pair since I started trading, as it has certain habits I could usually identify. If we take a look at pure  technical analysis, the pair is in fact, as Krishna said in his comment,moving inside a symmetric triangle, with the base  in the zone @ 100.50/101.00, where we can find a considerable number of monthly high and lows. Yet if we draw an ascendant trend line coming from the historical chart minimum @ 79.70, to past March minimum at 95.77, we have the pair in a bigger triangle, with a previous long term bearish trend, suggesting that, if the pair manages to break under this last ascendant zone, the bearish trend should continue for a good number of years. Yet, 100.50 zone seems to be the first important support to consider: I believe a confirmation under 100.00 will surely take the pair to the 96.00 zone, the base of the channel; a monthly opening under it, no doubts will confirm longer term bearish continuation for the pair. On the other hand, if the pair rebounds in the mentioned line, unable to break it, we will surely have a very interesting bullish rally in the next months.

Turning the chart to weekly or even daily, we could see the bearish trend is contained by the 61.8% of the last bullish up leg, from 95.77 to 110.66 and despite yesterday’s run, daily charts show the pair close yesterday and opened today above that level, telling us the downside is still contained for now. Also, the CCI of 17 periods is well under the -200 level in weekly charts, in fact, around  -277, when the historical minimum is around -306, telling us, that if we project a fall in the pair, continuous from here, the CCI over sold level and the ascendant trend line in monthly charts, should contain the downside and offer a bullish rebound.

To put it in just one line, the bearish continuation will depend mostly on the break trough of last March minimum around 96.00, and in the case the pair approaches to that zone and could not pass under, the bullish rebound will be quite interesting.

Turning to what could happen today, well after yesterday’s fall the pair quickly correct the 50% of the rally, and in fact, stays right now capped under the 38.2% of the bearish run: a 4 hours candle op pen above that level, @ 102.45 will surely made the pair retest the 103.10 zone, and above it, the pair will try to reach the 61.8% around 103.95, with an intermediate halt in the zone around 103.60. Supports, from actual price will be 101.90, the more interesting zone around 101.50 and finally 101.00.

A final note about the pair habits: in turmoil times, the pair moves in the American session, in the same direction U.S. stocks do: have you seen yesterday fall? well stocks did that. Take a look at DJIA once a while, and you can see where the pair will address for the rest of the day.