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Regarding this pair, we have 4 hours charts slightly bullish, following an ascendant trend line that the pair has tested a few minutes ago. With indicators a bit exhausted to the upside, the pair could remain bullish as long as the trend line @ 101.50, resist and (as in the case of other majors) optimism rules the American stock’s session. From actual 101.70 resistances will be at 102.10, followed by the zone around 102.50 and finally 102.83. A break under 101.50 ( and a bearish Dow Jones Industrial Average) will send the pair, first to the zone arond 101.20, followed by a more interesting congestion zone between 100.65/83 and finally 100.25.
valeria,
What do you think about this unhinging of usd/jpy and the other majors from the US stock market today?
Hi mike! I guess part of the answer is what i said in today’s openning. Market is again betting on dollar and yen. Besides, remember the relationship between stocks and market is not common but in turmoil times. This could be a first sign of some trends stability in markets, although I can see it in the short term, but surely don’t think will last for ever. Conditions change in the economic world, we have this turmoil times… then settle down,majors find a trend… and there we go until the cycle begins again. Just is not easy to determinate when exactly conditions change.That’s one of the reasons i’m happy with short term trades, but thanks God, we are not all alike (how boring life could be if so!)
Thanks Valeria,
Do you think the the Lehman CDS’s are the main cause for the market to be so strong USD since yesterday?
Hi Mike! The true is that we cannot explain market movements with just one single reason, unless a huge world tragedy, that of course nobody wish for. In spanish ( I don’t know in the rest of the world) we usually say that it’s easy to analyze what happens, “with yesterday’s newspaper” meaning that when things already happened, it’s easy to find an “excuse” for that particular thing. Like I say many times, I read a lot of news before start posting or even trading, and found out that when movements are not quite logical, nor complety technical all I can read is “risk aversion” “risk appettite” “optimism” or “fears” menaing Sentiment is driving market.. meaning big investors and not us humble traders, are the ones pushing majors one way or the other according to they needs, analysis or whatever. Also, I always remember the basis: Charles Dow theory about market forces and the different stages of bullish and bearish markets. Not to extend that much, I will add a post about that when I end here. To be complety honest, i don’t think just one bad or good new could affect that much currencies, that’s why I always prefered to work technically, with my math’s and my stats about probabilities.