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Gbp/Usd 1000 pips fall

Posted on October 24, 2008 at 11:29 in Long-Term Analysis, Short-Term Analysis by Valeria Bednarik

Today is one of those days, when no matter what indicator you use, the only reasonable trade is to follow the trend and enter the market in rebounds against it. Gbp/Usd 4 hours charts indicators are way too exhausted, yet the pair already corrected almost the 38.2% of the last downleg, so if the pair can’t manage to break above the 1.5630/60 zone, the bearish continuation seems more likely for the rest of the day, with supports at 1.5410, 1.5358, andfinally the daily minimum around1.5270. Above 1.5650 upside could extend at least to 1.5715 zone and then to 1.5780, 50% of the Fibo mentioned

 

Taking a look at longer term charts, one wonders if there is a floor for the pair and where is it. The pair has accumulated almost 5000 pips free fall in the last 4 months, and looking at historical charts, the hugest accumulatedloss was of around 6400 pips in about 6 months back in ´96. Looking further, the rally acomplised more or less the same back in 81. After that, the pair correct exactly the 38.2% in about two months. We could face many different situations right here in the long term, andthat is an extension of actual movement to the zone around 1.51( we have there an ascendant trend line coming from the historical minimum)  and 1.48 zone after. Both very important monthly support zones.  If today’s minimum is surpassed, then those will be the objectives, and we will be in about 5500 pips straight fall. Meaning is probable? yes no doubts. if the pair ends the bearish there or not.. is way out of my forecast possibilities. We will have to get there and see what happens. Right now seems probable. So in the case the pair reaches that 1.4800 level andfinally decide to rebound, we could determinate a first target zone around the 33/38.2% lest´s say around1.900 pips; the zone around1.6700. If the ascendant line around 1.5100 holds, well the upside correction should come higher.Still and despite the exhausted indicators, there are no signals of a trend change. Longer term trades to the upside, (waiting for an  interesting amount of pips in corrections) will have to wait for the pair reaction first to the line,a nd if broken to the 1.4800 zone.

 

 

Tags: gbpusd

2 Responses to “Gbp/Usd 1000 pips fall”

  1. on 26 Oct 2008 at 6:33 am1onyenike kelvin

    is there any posibility that the gbp will rise back to retrace its losses? and how soon could that be if posible. what could be the predictions for monday’s trade on gbp/usd?

  2. on 27 Oct 2008 at 9:44 am2Valeria Bednarik

    Hi Onyenike Kelvin! the posibility seems quite a few today: if the pair manages to pass trough previos week minimum, we could see the pair continuing falling both in the long and in the short term. Today macroeconomic reports shown Gbp will continue deteriorating; the rertracement, that will occur, will probably take a couple of months.
    Regards
    Val

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