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Taking a look at 4 hours charts, the pair is recovering some bullish strength, after a 61.8% correction of this week rally. Momentum has turned to the upside, yet not clear signs from indicators at the moment, as the candle have just started, yet open under the 20 SMA. The pair has just attempted to get above the 1.2800 level, yet failed. In fact, I can see a tough congestion zone between 1.2800/1.2830, that could give the pair a hard time to the upside in the next hours. Above it, next important resistance will be @ 1.2880, then some pips above the 38.2% of the rally, @1.2940 and finally 1.2975. Under 1.2745, 1.2690 will be exposed, and under that zone, 1.2655 will be the target to consider.
Let’s turn to weekly charts and see what happened: yesterday’s maximum reached exactly the 38.2% of the down leg coming from 1.4867, and the pair rebound really quickly from there. Momentum is still pointing to the downside, yet the pair is way too oversold. 20 SMA is bearish, and price is under the 200 EMA. Next week opening will certainly clarify the situation (and of course, today’s close) but the bearish longer term strength is still there, despite the oversold condition, as long as the 1.3300 zone holds; actual price is not the best shorting option. RSI should correct before a continuation.
