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Usd/Jpy technical and fundamental perspective

Posted on December 11, 2008 at 11:55 in Long-Term Analysis, Short-Term Analysis, Uncategorized by Valeria Bednarik

Japanese Yen continues strengthening and technically remains bearish in daily and 4 hours charts; however the Bank of Japan Governor Shirakawa warns he is watching forex movements due to the impact of yen appreciation on exports; also he declare that the  Ministry of Finance has the option of intervention when the forex moves are big. And if Usd/Jpy breaks under the 90.92 minimum accomplished this year, stops could trigger a big bearish rally and intervention will probably become a reality. This is “one of those cases” where fundamentals are more than just “noise”: A market intervention will made the pair rise to a comfortable level for Japanese exporters and change any technical perspective. I don’t expect that to happen today, but price is not far away form the 90.00 level and that will probably trigger the alarm. If you are a long term trader, just pay attention to that.

Today and from actual levels, the pair remains bearish and ready to continue to the downside: I can see a strong congestion zone that extends between 91.65 and 91.90, so if the pair manages to break under that without to much hesitation, continuation will be confirmed, with next supports @ 91.00 and under the year minimum the pair will probably approach to the hey 90.00 level. Above 92.36 the pair can regain the 92.60 zone, and above it 93.00 will be the next step to consider.

 

 

 

 

 

Tags: Boj, usdjpy

2 Responses to “Usd/Jpy technical and fundamental perspective”

  1. on 11 Dec 2008 at 2:31 pm1Armand Gusman

    Good Morning Ms.Val,

    Do you think USD/JPY will drop any further than today’s maximum? Thank you for your opinion.

    Best Regards,
    Armand

  2. on 11 Dec 2008 at 3:03 pm2Valeria Bednarik

    Sorry Armand! didn’t see the post. Chances remain to the downside, and U.S. stocks are falling.. Seems at least should test the yearly minimum zone
    Regards
    Val

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