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If you draw a Fibonacci retracement in monthly charts, from the maximum at 1.6038 to 1.2330, there are some interesting things we can notice: the huge spike to 1.4700 zone represents a 61.8% correction of that monthly rally, and by this time, the pair remains contained under the 38.2% @ 1.3740, exactly yesterday’s maximum zone, where the pair come back quickly enough to the downside. Longer term view remains bearish, as long as this week closes under that level (Let’s see what Non Farm Payrolls have to say tomorrow), and will be confirmed once the pair breaks under 1.3300.
Turning to smaller charts, in fact 4 hours, the pair has lost the bullish momentum in indicators, and we have a clear descendant 20 SMA and a flat 200 EMA that again is acting as a quite interesting support @ 1.3530, already tested once today. It the zone is broken, we could see the pair moving downside to next supports, at 1.3485 zone, followed by a more interesting one at 1.3430 and finally the zone @ 1.3390/3400. First resistance today will be at 1.3630 zone, followed by 1.3660/70,and with a light stop @ 1.3700 after testing again yesterday’s high zone. A break above, will re trigger the bullish momentum, with next target at the 1.3800 zone.
