During all 2008, America has been losing jobs: today we have past December publication, and that will bring the number close to 2 million people, remaining the biggest concern of the American economy. With the  ADP survey (published a few days ago) getting more accurate month after month, today we are ” expecting” a nearly 650K lost, despite the -520K fore casted by economist, and a raise in unemployment rate to a 7 % from a previous 6.7%. So what could happen today? Well my husband could continuously repeat that I’m a witch, but the true is I don’t have a crystal ball to see the future. I just can speculate the different scenarios we could face in a couple of hours. First of all, we have bunch of reports during the month, that give some advance information for payrolls: the weekly unemployment claims, the employment component of Manufacturing and Service ISM the ADP survey, and the consumer confidence to name the most important ones; reviewing them, the balance is still pulling lower, although in the past, usually after a sharp fall like the one seen in November, employments shown a quite interesting improvement in the next month. To make this just a post, and not a book, let’s say we have three numbers to watch today in this order: first today’s number itself (expected in -520K) and unemployment rate (expected on 7.0%) then previous month revision (actually at -533K). I believe that the first two weight the same so, they must be both better or worst than expected, to see straight moves in majors. If those number came close to expectations, then the revision will be the number to consider.

Remember two things: give market 15 - 30 minutes after the publication to take a decision. Last months Payroll day, most majors ended right where they started or very close, and reaction was “delayed”  till next Monday.