7 Responses to “Don’t use the word intervention”

1. on 30 Oct 2009 at 1:49 pm1Ferdous

   On 30/10/2009 From http://www.forexfactory.com
   GMT Actual Forcast Previous
   10:30 CHF KOF Economic Barometer 1.45 1.19 0.77

   They written that Actual> Forcast Good for currency.Form the above data Swiss should be Strong & USD/CHF, EUR/CHF or the currencies against CHF Should fall.Instead USD/CHF & EUR/CHF increased 60 & 80 Pips respectively.

   The previous Day USA GDP increased but USD Fall against all Currencies (USD/CHF falled from 1.0275 to 1.0180.But USD/CHF Should be increased that day.

   I cannot understand why this type of Reverse movement occured.If you please explain me I will be greatful to you.

   Thanks.
   Ferdous

2. on 30 Oct 2009 at 2:15 pm2Valeria Bednarik

   Hi Ferdous, and tks for your comment. Regardin what happened with Swissy, the Switzeland National Bank, had been complaining hard about the strong appreciation of their currency harming the economic recovery and exports. They had already get into the markets to low the price of the currency several times since past March. They watch particular EUR/CHF: they tend to act when the pair breaks under 1.5100 exactly what happened today. Regarding GDP, for at least 1 year, U.S. data has been affecting the currency in an inverse correlation: good data in America trigger optimism across the world on a stronger economic recovery, sending stocks higher and currencies like AUD, CAD, NZD, EUR, GBP, CHF higher while dollar lower. On the contrary, bad U.S. data trigger risk aversion, fears of more crisis to come, stocks sunk and dollar rise. Watch the indexes and you will understand what’s going on.
   Hope you understand, if not, feel free to ask again!
   Regards
   Val

3. on 30 Oct 2009 at 2:53 pm3Ferdous

   Thanks a lot.
   So the Summery is
   (1)Switzeland National Bank does’nt want to their currency to become stronger because it harms their economic recovery and exports.
   In Case of USD usually it is:
   (1)Good US Data means USD Weaker(DOW Jones, S&P, Nasaq High)
   (2)Bad US Data means USD Stronger(Dow Jones,S&P & Nasaq Low)
   If I am wrong please correct me when you find time.
   Thanks
   Ferdous

4. on 30 Oct 2009 at 3:20 pm4Ferdous

   Another thing I have noticed that when USD Strong, then JPY become stronger than USD.
   As a result USD/JPY Falls with EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD

5. on 30 Oct 2009 at 3:25 pm5Valeria Bednarik

   Hi Ferdous, yes that’s the idea, yet remember is not a 100% sure LAW. Nothing in here is 100% sure ;). And this is going on since crisis started.. in the past, and in some unseen future, things are exactly the opposite.
   And regarding JPY, is the second save haven currency, after USD. so in uncertainty times, both tend to appreciate togheter, with USD/JPY falling quickly.
   Regards
   Val

6. on 30 Oct 2009 at 5:33 pm6Ferdous

   Again Thanks a lot for your Experienced Opinion.
   Ferdous

7. on 02 Nov 2009 at 10:33 am7Valeria Bednarik

   Hi Ferdous, you are welcome
   Regards
   Val

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