The Advisor Weblog

Dow jones and currency markets

Valeria Bednarik — Thu, 20 Nov 2008 14:38:38 +0000

The Dow Jones industrial Average could play a primary rol today: falling apart, is only 30 points of the minimum reached at 7900 basis points a few days ago. If the Index falls under that level, we could see some “pannic selling” across the board, with Dollar to be the overall winner, followed by japanese Yen.

Usd/Chf testing the key level

Valeria Bednarik — Thu, 20 Nov 2008 13:39:52 +0000

The pair is in the roof of the 4 hours channel, and quite over bought in 15 minutes charts. Should come back quickly to at least the zone @ 1.2180 before continuing to the upside. Above actual maximum, the comeback lose expectations and the pair will start a new strong up leg.

Eur/Chf technical perspective

Valeria Bednarik — Thu, 20 Nov 2008 13:25:58 +0000

With Swiss Franc falling after the rate cut, this is an interesting pair to analyze today: as is moving along with Euro against dollar, this pair has reached the 1.5300 level quickly and remains bullish at the moment: next resistances will be at 1.5331, and the key zone @ 1.5360; above this last, daily charts suggest a more interesting upside continuation, first to the zone @ 1.5375, followed by 1.5420 and finally 1.5458 and finally 1.5516. Supports from actual price will be at 1.5250, 1.5200 and finally the zone @ 1.5148.

Surprise SNB Rate cut

Valeria Bednarik — Thu, 20 Nov 2008 12:58:20 +0000

As mentioned on previous post, the Swiss National Bank surprised with a really aggressive 100 basis point cut of the Libor rate. Sending Swiss Franc down against major rivals, particularly against American Dollar, almost at 2 years low, and Euro, where we saw an historical minimum a few weeks ago. the underlying intention of this cut, is clearly pointing to fight recession, that continues spreading it’s wings above all Europe. The SNB also offered additional funds in the money market to increase liquidity after the cut. Regarding Usd/Chf, the pair is addressing to the mentioned key 1.2210 zone, while Eur/Chf, quoting right now @ 1.5290, needs to clearly break above the 1.5360 zone to continue the upside movements in the longer term. I will add a post about the pair in the next minutes.

Usd/Chf close to second channel roof

Valeria Bednarik — Thu, 20 Nov 2008 12:26:21 +0000

Swiss Franc is falling after the Libor rate was cut by 1 basic point, and is pretty much close to 1.2205, the roof of the smaller channel we have been seeing these days: looking at weekly charts, we also have many important maximums and minimums @ 1.2210. Despite the pair is clearly bullish and above the daily channel roof (meaning we will see the pair continuing t o the upside in the longer term), if 1.2200 is reached, we could see some descent downwards rebound from there, in the shorter term.

Gbp/Usd breaking lower

Valeria Bednarik — Thu, 20 Nov 2008 11:51:40 +0000

The pair is ready to fall sharply: quoting @ 1.4830, under today’s minimum at 1.4809 the pair has a clear way to the key support level around 1.4770: if passes under this last, we will see a good bearish momentum triggered, with next supports at 1.4712, and intermediate support at 1.4684, and then and more likely, 1.4655. To the upside, 1.4890/1.4900 will be the first resistance to consider, followed by 1.4970, 1.5050 and finally the zone @ 1.5100.

Eur/Usd for today

Valeria Bednarik — Thu, 20 Nov 2008 11:26:08 +0000

Despite yesterday’s high near to 1.2810, the pair remains bearish in bigger charts, and from a technical perspective, forming a continuation triangle: final objective for this figure, will be close to 1.1800. Yet turning to smaller charts, for today, only above 1.2546 we could see some bullish movements with resistances at 1.2565 and then 1.2610. More quickly will be the fall: under 1.2509, next supports will be at 1.2470, the zone @ 1.2437 and finally 1.2390.

Starting the day

Valeria Bednarik — Thu, 20 Nov 2008 10:37:00 +0000

Hi everybody hope you are fine. As expected yesterday the bad data trigger a dollar negative rally, that couldn’t last long: fundamentals are unable to interrupt trend, no matter how much we hear talking about risk aversion, risk appetite, confidence or fears; right now, American dollar and Japanese Yen are back and probably continue leading the way, while Gbp is getting ready to continue falling; anyway, let’s start with the technicals quickly!

You can check today’s news following this link:

http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-calendar/

Have a great day!

Usd/Chf in 15 minutes charts

Valeria Bednarik — Wed, 19 Nov 2008 14:56:37 +0000

The pair is not only oversold in smaller charts and offered a quick rebound in the base of the channel, also a tough congestion zone. Market is moving more quickly than my hands here, but as long as the minimum remains unbroken, we could see some more short term bullish there.

Euro ans Gbp update

Valeria Bednarik — Wed, 19 Nov 2008 14:22:27 +0000

Euro is passing the resistance @ 1.2740 and Gbp @ 1.5180, and as long as that zones hold, both can continue to the upside, with Gbp final target at 1.5380 with and intermediate resistance at 1.5254. Euro has next resistances at 1.2790/1.2800, and then 1.2830. Expect some corrections in the immediate short term if the first values mentioned don’t hold.