Here is my choice for today:
http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/the-best-pair-to-trade-now/2009-11-20.html
Asian Session: Live Market Analysis
by Dr.S.Sivaraman
November 23, 05:00 GMT
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Here is my choice for today:
http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/the-best-pair-to-trade-now/2009-11-20.html
Is not just gold; profit taking is hitting hard specially commodity currencies, and AUD/USD is the one suffering the most. Pair has hit a daily ascendant trend line at 0.9100 and remains close to it, and seems we are going to break it trough. We have quite a support at the very close 0.9080, so I suspect under that level, we may have a good number of stop losses, that if triggered, will send the pair quickly lower to the 0.9030 area. Resistances from current price, lie at 0.9120 0.9150 and 0.9200.
Understending market correlation is the base of all good trading; see what’s going on here: this is a weekly chart of AUD/USD where you can see not only the ascendant trend line, but also the Fibonacci rally of the fall from 0.98 to 0.60; pair has break above the 76.4% retracement of the rally, and remains there, while indicators show we are close to extremes and ready for a downside correction.
Turning to 4 hours charts, what do you see? pair has rebounded at the mentioned Fibo level, around 0.8940, several times this past weeks, yet each time, reaching lower highs; 200 EMA is there also, offering extra support in the zone, while price is ready to break lower. Of course, to call for a break of the level, we need to see at least, a daily candle close under it, yet if it does, it will likely push dollar higher across the board. Next key level/target if so, will be the ascendant trend line, around 0.8800 for this week.
As i always told you, commodity currencies usually lead the way, and today is no exception. Rising strongly, against greenback, here is the link to the news with the technical levels to watch:
http://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-news/article.aspx?StoryId=4ee17baa-c5db-4bd9-97c4-b440fd079424
Aud/Usd now at 0.7756, reached 0.7770 a 7-month high early European session, and remains well bid. Over bough in smaller time frames, corrections to the key 0.7700 level are likely as long as the mentioned maximum remains intact. Above it, consider next resistances at 0.7800 zone and above 0.7845. under 0.7700 next support will come at 0.7644, 38.2% Fibonacci retracement from last upleg in 4 hours charts from 0.7449 to 0.7770, and then 0.7600.
Commodities currencies usually lead the way, and today, is not an exception: Australian dollar fell more than a 2% today, after a worst than expected PPI report for the Q1, with a decline of -0.4% (forecast was of 0.6%). Monetary minutes, to be release in less than 12 hours, and the chance of further rate cuts, will be carefully watched by traders. Canadian dollar also fell heavily following oil that broke under $50.0 a barrel and continues signaling further loses. Both currencies are favoring positive greenback sentiment across the board.Aud/Usd fall reaches the 0.7050 and remains close to that level, still with no signs of reversal despite the oversold state the pair has in intraday charts. Further falls will find support at the key 0.7000 zone, while a clear break under it, could send the pair to 0.6970 and 0.6925 zone. Corrections will find resistances at 0.7110 and then 0.7160, that should hold to keep the bearish longer term bias intact.
Usd/Cad just hit the 1.2300 zone, where the pair found the daily 20 SMA that halted the bullish run, still no signs of reversal in the pair. Hourly charts are over bough, yet 4 hours show the pair has more room to go. 1.2347 will be our first resistance for today, followed by 1.2378, 200 EMA in 4 hours charts, probable maximum for today. 1.2273 will be the first support to consider, followed by a more interesting congestion zone around 1.2240. Under this last, 1.2200 could be reached.