And dollar bounces down. EUR/USD is testing the 1.4850 area, unable to break lower, while GBP continues under heavy pressure and can’t regain the upside. I will wait for U.S. opening now, as seems the mood is a bit “violent” a this point.

I’m ignoring on purpose Japanese Yen: I can’t see it going nowhere, yet EUR/JPY is back on the daily 200 SMA in the daily, that has been offering strong support since past May. Seems is not going to be today, the breaking lower day, so maybe we are about to see some JPY depreciation against major rivals.

Anyway I will wait U.S. opening!

We are half an inch away of some panic profit taking in markets, with dollar winning across the board, even against Japanese Yen, Euro at 1.4810, Gbp 1.6450, Aud under 0.9100 and Swissy trying to break 1.0200. Stocks are down gold is down (that’s halting any attempt of appreciation for the Japanese currency) and we could see some rebounds from current levels. Watch gold: a break under $1130/oz, yesterday’s low, could well be the trigger market is waiting for.

I have been talking about this a lot, I know, still i do believe will play a big role in currency markets. I went to Wikipedia to find a definition of deflation, and it says:” is a decrease in the general price level of goods and services Deflation occurs when the annual inflation rate falls below zero percent (a negative inflation rate), resulting in an increase in the real value of money - allowing one to buy more goods with the same amount of money”, and it also says “deflation is also linked with recession, and  prevents monetary policy from stabilizing the economy because of a mechanism called the liquidity trap” (in two words, a liquidity trap is falling into a spiral that leads to monetary policy  unable to stimulate the economy).

Anyway, deputy Prime Minister Naoto Kan said Friday that the Japanese economy has slipped into a state of deflation, putting BOJ under pressure to take country out of it. You can read the whole article following this link: http://mdn.mainichi.jp/mdnnews/news/20091120p2a00m0na015000c.html

But the unspoken word in Europe, should start to be taking into account: as reported by the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis), the index of producer prices for industrial products (domestic sales) for Germany fell by 7.6% in October 2009 from the corresponding month of the preceding year. In September 2009, the annual rate of change was -7.6% too.
Same data  for euro zone show that in September 2009 compared with September 2008, industrial producer prices dropped by 7.7% in the euro area and by 7.3% in the EU27 (these figures come from Eurostat, the Statistical Office of the European Communities). I will stop here with stats not to make anyone crazy, yet we are at -7.6% and -7.7%.

I  won’t be extending with any Keynesian theory of economics, I will just ask you, what should happen both with Euro and Japanese Yen?

Yesterday I was laughing alone at home as several news services where publishing a big banker from Saudi Arab was saying that is true American economy is in bad shape, but so are all the rest. Exactly the same i have been saying for the last 3 months.

Anyway, as I also say, we should trade what it is, and not what we think it should be. At current levels, and from a technical perspective, there is no signs of change in both Yen and Euro bullish trend. Although is too late to get into them, is still too early to go against.

Ok! enough philosophy for one morning! too early to think this, really! I will start now with the more humble intra-day technical views. Enjoy!

Wall Street is falling strongly,pushing particularly commodity currencies to the upside; gold is also falling giving further support to greenback. Let’s see if majors manage to break above/under current lows/highs. That should accelerate dollar recovery. As usual, commodity currencies lead the way.

Hi everybody and welcome back! One day off and things are not quite the same in market: despite gold reached 1153 past Wednesday, EUR/USD failed again to break above 1.5000, a level that refuses to give up since past Thursday. Pound Also retreat from the 1.6840 area,   50% of the monthly fall (I will place my big charts later today). Both stocks and gold retreat strongly today, favoring some dollar  winnings, still nothing really important, more likely corrective, as we remain in past week trading range. Market is waiting for another big trigger to define further trends, and i don’t see anyone for this week, at least from the fundamental side. Maybe  gold recovering the highs and attempting a fresh one, won’t be so strong dollar bearish trigger, as gold breaking under 1080 will be favoring greenback. Let’s see the charts, and try to find some clues! Here is the link for today’s calendar:

http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-calendar/

Have a great day!

Here is the hourly perspective for majors:

http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/currency-majors-technical-perspective/2009-11-17.html

Hi everybody and welcome back! I don’t know who is more exhausted these days, either dollar… or me. I have been at the ITC past October in Barcelona, yet before that, it has been almost two years since my last vacations, and I’m really tired. Summer is starting, we are about to end the school year, kids are tired and mom about to collapse. Yet seems there are more chances of my collapse than greenbacks one. Our good all friend Mr. Jean Claude Trichet has just come to support dollar, saying a strong dollar is not only in the interest of the U.S. but also the entire international community. He also added: “The euro was not created to fight against the U.S. Dollar or to replace the dollar as international reserve currency.  It was created to complete the single European market, and give Europe’s stability and prosperity.” EUR/USD is down from 1.5000 to 1.4900 while dollar is also sligtly up agaisnt major rivals, as gold gave up 10 bucks today. Nothing that change the trend, corrective for now. Anyway! let’s see what the day has to bring to currencies!

Here is the link for today’s calendar:

http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-calendar/

Have a great day!

Hi everyone, welcome back. Majors extended past Friday’s rally against greenback, holding the good tone against the American currency, supported by rising stocks and gold, that reached a new record high. Dollar failed big to extend the downside corrective movement from past Thursday, and chances for the currency to recover some ground has reduced dramatically, as rates differentials weight more at this point.With sentiment improving across the world, we could expect further risk appetite today, if U.S. data comes as expected, much better than previous month. Here is the link for today’s calendar:

http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-calendar/

Have a great day!

Dollar is back up as Wall Street opened to the downside after Trade Balance data. Beware of gold, is barely a few cents above yesterday’s low, and could also be an interesting trigger for dollar rally to extend.  

Hi and welcome back! As expected yesterday at the Daily Wrap Up Webinar, majors correct against greenback, each on it’s own strength. While Gbp rose comfortably, Euro and Chf corrections are slightly smaller, while Japanese yen returned under 90.00 to the range. Early data in Europe, showed German preliminary GDP come out better than previous month, that was also corrected to the upside, giving European recovery some air; a small improvement for the Q3 in GDP was also published both in France and Italy, giving Euro support enough to spike to the 1.4900 area, before retreating to current levels. Anyway, we have U.S. Trade Balance later, and I believe that report will defy intraday and who knows? maybe even next weeks trend. Here is the link for today’s calendar:

http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-calendar/

Have a great day!