And dollar bounces down. EUR/USD is testing the 1.4850 area, unable to break lower, while GBP continues under heavy pressure and can’t regain the upside. I will wait for U.S. opening now, as seems the mood is a bit “violent” a this point.

I’m ignoring on purpose Japanese Yen: I can’t see it going nowhere, yet EUR/JPY is back on the daily 200 SMA in the daily, that has been offering strong support since past May. Seems is not going to be today, the breaking lower day, so maybe we are about to see some JPY depreciation against major rivals.

Anyway I will wait U.S. opening!

We are half an inch away of some panic profit taking in markets, with dollar winning across the board, even against Japanese Yen, Euro at 1.4810, Gbp 1.6450, Aud under 0.9100 and Swissy trying to break 1.0200. Stocks are down gold is down (that’s halting any attempt of appreciation for the Japanese currency) and we could see some rebounds from current levels. Watch gold: a break under $1130/oz, yesterday’s low, could well be the trigger market is waiting for.

Hi everyone, welcome back. Majors extended past Friday’s rally against greenback, holding the good tone against the American currency, supported by rising stocks and gold, that reached a new record high. Dollar failed big to extend the downside corrective movement from past Thursday, and chances for the currency to recover some ground has reduced dramatically, as rates differentials weight more at this point.With sentiment improving across the world, we could expect further risk appetite today, if U.S. data comes as expected, much better than previous month. Here is the link for today’s calendar:

http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-calendar/

Have a great day!

Dollar is back up as Wall Street opened to the downside after Trade Balance data. Beware of gold, is barely a few cents above yesterday’s low, and could also be an interesting trigger for dollar rally to extend.  

Gold seems to be finally ready for a corrective movement, as 4 hours indicators point for that: trend is losing momentum, while the metal lost nearly 13 dollars from the high; next key support level comes at the 1097 area. Gold fall support furhter dollar gains. EUR/USD next key level to watch is 1.4810.

I have been following gold for a long time now, as we have been talking about how is one of the main reasons of dollar weakness. Before the metal broke the previous historical high of 1031, I draw a Fibonacci expansion in the daily chart, and if you take a look, levels had been acting quite well as support and resistance. Currently fighting the 138.2% level, around 1116, daily close above that zone will likely mean a continuation to next level, the 168.2% at 1134.

Also, take a look at indicators: ADX signal a strong trend, now around 55. In currency markets,  I found out readings above 60 are extremely rare, yet in gold, not so rare. it could easily reach the 64/68 area before giving signs of exhaustion. Also, RSI in the daily at 77 is telling as gold is overbought. Yet, despite both indicators reaching extreme levels, there is no sign of a downside correction; if gold reaches quickly that 1134 level, and retreat strongly from there, we may have a first sign of that. Above 1134, likely to extend the rally, with 1200 as next key zone to consider. From current zone, a midterm corrective movement could be triggered under 1044, strong support level and 61.8% of the expansion. Watch for a reversal in indicators, and a daily candle opening under that level, to confirm a major downside move.

If something is halting further dollar gains, no doubts is gold. Having reached a few minutes ago the 1069 level, barely a couple of bucks under the historical high reached past October, the commodity keeps pushing higher. Keep an eye on it, a break higher could trigger interesting movements in currencies, starting with Aud.

Gold seems ready to break yesterday’s low, barely a few cents away. Watch for an acceleration in the break, and the following dollar rally against high yieldings. Key levels to the downside are 1036.90 and 1031, previous historical high.

Dollar is quickly gaining ground as gold test levels under 1050/oz, and American indexes fall. Dow Jones Industrial Average breached under 10.000, reaching almost the 9900 level in a few minutes, while oil also gave up some ground thus remains around $ 80.00 a barrel.

EUR/USD fall has reached the 1.4940/50 support area, should rebound to the upside, or at least consolidate at current levels before next movement. If unable to regain 1.5000, more downside pressure could be seen.

Still not clear or strong, dollar is gaining some ground against major rivals, as gold falls: quoting around 1054/oz, the commodity is far from 1043 key support. Oil remains above $ 80.00 a barrel, but 0.21% down on the day, also giving greenback some air.