As i always told you, commodity currencies usually lead the way, and today is no exception. Rising strongly, against greenback, here is the link to the news with the technical levels to watch:

http://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-news/article.aspx?StoryId=4ee17baa-c5db-4bd9-97c4-b440fd079424

Remember past Friday Usd/Cad chart? We are again very close to the 1.0780 lows, and despite a small rebound there, pair continues consolidating barely 30 pips from that level. Strong congestion zone, daily highs and lows, with oil close to $71.00 a barrel Canadian dollar continues pushing higher. Under mentioned 1.0780, next supports come at 1.0720 and 1.0655. Resistances today will lie at 1.0835 and 1.0880 zone. I will keep and eye on oil, as both are highly correlated. Oil bullish momentum could extend thus I don’t expect the barrel to move above the 75/80 zone. There will come the time for a more interesting upside correction in this pair.

http://blogs.fxstreet.com/advisor/2009/07/24/usdcad-daily-charts-2/

Take a look at this daily chart, and you will see what I see: USD/CAD is barely 40 pips away from the 1.0780 lows, strong support zone for the pair. RSI around 24 in the daily, also show extremely over sold conditions in the pair. At this point we are accumulating also a 900 pips straight fall. Do you signs of reversal or an upside correction? I don’t. If pair manages to break under that 1.0780 area, downside pressure could accelerate and send the pair close to the lows 1.0600. The behaviour of the pair, is the key to determinate if we are going to see a strong rebound to the upside or not. As longer we see price hovering around actual level, bigger are the chances of a break. I have an eye on oil also: barrel is at $ 69.50 and the year high is around $ 72.70. If oil continues it’s rally ( and should approach to $ 75.00) USD/CAD will continue falling despite technical indicators or extreme conditions.

Oil is falling strong, breaking under $70.0 a barrel, dragging dollar up with this movement. Canadian dollar is overbought or close to is smaller time frames and reports in 5 minutes, could send it up again. Resistances lie at the 1.1425 1.1460 but watch if reached quick for a short quick bounce around 1.1490. To the downside supports are at 1.1400 1.1350, and 1.1310.

The Bank of Canada present their monetary policy report a few minutes ago, announcing one of three policy tools at its disposal two days ago when it pledged to hold the benchmark overnight rate at a historic low of 0.25% for the next 14 months. Usd/Cad is running fast although extremely over sold is small charts. The 1.2200 level should be the ultimate floor at least today.

I was just watching this chart, when Anatoli ask about what I see here, so well, I think it deserves a small post. Early when Canada cut the rates, I wrote (not here) ”Canada surprise markets with a 0.25% rate cut, sending the benchmark to a fresh record low of 0.25% and decline sharply against dollar, breaking previous range to the upside. Besides, statement has been more dovish than expected, as the BOC expects the GDP to shrink 3% this year, more than twice previous forecast, putting quantitative easing on the table for one more country. Daily charts are quickly gaining upside momentum, with a strong resistance, above recent maximum of 1.2510 at 1.2570. 1.2410/40 should hold the downside to keep the bias intact.” Daily charts, finally close under the mentioned 1.2410/40 zone, and here is what we can see:

 Pair open a new day just under the daily ascendant trend line broken past week, and was unable to confirma clear break. Actual candle and previous one, suggest a reversal pattern. For me, as long as the pair is unable to open a daily candle above the mentioned 1.2440 zone (where we also have some daily highs) chances are to the downside, meaning a Cad appreciation. Also, I’m following oil charts, with prices hoovering around 50.00: if prices breaks above the 54.50 level, oil should rise, favoring further Canadian dollar appreciation.

Commodities currencies usually lead the way, and today, is not an exception: Australian dollar fell more than a 2% today, after a worst than expected PPI report for the Q1, with a decline of -0.4% (forecast was of 0.6%). Monetary minutes, to be release in less than 12 hours, and the chance of further rate cuts, will be carefully watched by traders. Canadian dollar also fell heavily following oil that broke under $50.0 a barrel and continues signaling further loses. Both currencies are favoring positive greenback sentiment across the board.Aud/Usd fall reaches the 0.7050 and remains close to that level, still with no signs of reversal despite the oversold state the pair has in intraday charts. Further falls will find support at the key 0.7000 zone, while a clear break under it, could send the pair to 0.6970 and 0.6925 zone. Corrections will find resistances at 0.7110 and then 0.7160, that should hold to keep the bearish longer term bias intact.

Usd/Cad just hit the 1.2300 zone, where the pair found the daily 20 SMA that halted the bullish run, still no signs of reversal in the pair. Hourly charts are over bough, yet 4 hours show the pair has more room to go. 1.2347 will be our first resistance for today, followed by 1.2378, 200 EMA in 4 hours charts, probable maximum for today. 1.2273 will be the first support to consider, followed by a more interesting congestion zone around 1.2240. Under this last, 1.2200 could be reached.

Usd/Cad continues tending lower after breaking a long term ascendant daily trend line past Monday, yet the rally was halted by falling oil prices that move under t$50.00 a barrel. Quoting around 1.2135, the pair has technical supports at 1.2100 and 1.2061, yesterday’s low. Break under this last could trigger downside momentum in the pair, and send it close to the key 1.2000 zone. Resistances on the other hand, lie at 1.2166, 1.2183 and finally 1.2240.

With the general negative sentiment against greenback and oil above 50.00 dollars el barrel, Cad continues appreciating sending USD /CAD has just tested the 1.2230 zone. Indicators remain pointing to the downside, the pair could attempt to test the daily ascendant trend line around 1.2100 despite the oversold state 4 hours charts shown. From actual 1.2260 consider supports at 1.2237, 1.2200 1.2153 and the mentioned trend line, right now at 1.2113. Daily close under the line, will confirm longer a longer term bearish continuation. Resistances from actual price will be at 1.2280, 1.2316, 1.2375 and finally 1.2446

Maybe not the first one to notice this, but here we are, with a triple roof in daily charts: the pair has been trying to push above 1.3000, also a tough support zone back in 2004, without passing trough. In fact take a look at monthly charts, and see what I can see: 1.3000 has always been  a huge inflection point, that took the pair several attempts to break, triggering a major trend after that, both up or down. Now, combined with this daily Fibo I add, we can see two key points tothe downside, that could tell us whether this is a  correction to regain strength and reattempt again the 1.30, or if we are at the first stages of a reversal: fighting with the 38.2% zone and with several highs and lows, @ 1.1900. Any confirmation under that pair could send the pair back to the lows around 1.1440, that we could consider the neck of this figure, and pretty close to the 61.8% of the rally. If that zone holds, in the medium term the pair will have more chances of testing again the 1.30 zone than of continuing falling. While indicators here are giving signs of bearish continuation, we need to wait and see for a couple of days, to where the par moves in relation of this 1.1900/38.2% Fibonacci zone, to determinate next steps here.