Get your free 21-day Autochartist trial and INTRO video series at http://www.autochartist.com
Chartology
Inside technicals and chart patterns by Raghee Horner, trader and author at Raghee.com
Subscribe
Or subscribe via email:
Categories
Archives
Recent Comments
- Raghee Horner on Getting comfortable with CRAZY
- Jeremy on Getting comfortable with CRAZY
- Raghee Horner on Getting comfortable with CRAZY
- travis on Getting comfortable with CRAZY
- Greg Wilson on Getting comfortable with CRAZY
Next webinar
Weekly Webinar: 1st on Forex - The Week Ahead
by Jerry Furst
November 09, 17:00 GMT
Register for the webinar
FXstreet.com Weblogs
Links
Get your free 21-day Autochartist trial and INTRO video series at http://www.autochartist.com
Get your free 21-day Autochartist trial and INTRO video series at http://www.autochartist.com
The U.S. Dollar has been rallying since 5:00am EST. The base of the rally was 77.20. This move comes after the test near the psychological 77.00 handle at 77.09. It’s likely that dollar buyers were waiting for the test near 77.00 and this level attracted buyers. Add to that the rally up through 77.20 and 775.0 was sure to attract more momentum players.
The 78.00 level is currently resistance and as the dollar climbs the bears will be picking their spots for the short from today’s bounce. This move is hardly a reversal at these levels as the dollar would have to establish support at 78.00 to even begin that sort of discussion.
Significant resistance waits above 78.00. The key price area of 78.50 to 79.00 will be a steep climb and will likely determine how many shorts will be squeezed out and ultimately prove if there is enough buying support to level out the year long sell off in the dollar.
In the meanwhile there are buyers stepping in at 1.4134 to 1.4150 in the EUR/USD. The 1.4200 psychological level rejected the small climb higher on the EUR/USD to 1.4120 as the dollar tested 78.20 support before continuing the rally.
If a picutre is worth a thousand words…a CHART is worth far more.
The U.S. Dollar on the following two charts in in color, while the crude oil and gold candles are in black & white. Notice that as price continues to climb on crude and gold, the dollar continues to slide.
Here’’s the dollar and crude:
And here’’s gold…
Charts created with the permission of EZ2Trade Software.
Picking your spots in a trending market is something that novice and impatient traders seldom do…and it wasn’t until I understood what trend trading really was did I begin to put together the steps I would use to enter an established trend. Someone sent me a neat quote: "Trends are our friends until they bend" but I would have to define "bend". I’m an English major…and I just can’t help it.
All trends eventually "bend" but it’s understanding the difference between a correction and reversal within the trend that allows you to know whether to set up a continuation or reversal entry.
As long as the USD/CAD is trending, I’m looking for the bounce or correction that I can short.
The 15 minute chart might be a good opportunity to short a correction into the Wave or the downtrend line resistance of the falling wedge pattern.
All charts we used with permission from Autochartist and EZ2Trade Software.
The rising wedge setting up on the daily chart is interesting mainly because price would have to break down through the 165.00 psychological level to confirm the pattern break.
The uptrend line support of the rising wedge would represent a fairly aggressive breakdown as it’s a steep line in a strong uptrend and I don’t expect the “00″ to go down without a fight.
Meanwhile, the 15 minute chart of the EUR/JPY shows some resistance just below the 166.50 level at the downtrend line resistance of it’s own patter: a falling wedge. A failing wedge can be traded as a continuation pattern or as a reversal pattern however in this case, the chart pattern is not a good match for the current market cycle so it’s not an ideal set but none-the-less can offer insight into the potential follow-through on the daily chart.
all charts were created with
permission from Autochartist
Get your free 21-day Autochartist trial and INTRO video series at http://www.autochartist.com
Today I look at the set up on the USD/CHF, GBP/USD and other chart pattern alerts and how to set them up.
Get your free 21-day Autochartist trial and INTRO video series at http://www.autochartist.com
I still actively trade the futures market: gold, crude, e-minis and the more. I trade forex along side my futures the more I see that doing so gives me insight into the synergy of these two markets. While the dollar is a component of all the major pairs, there is more two these two pairs than just the dollar.
The U.S. Dollar pushed slightly higher on the back of the better-than-expected Empire State Business Conditions Index.
The forecast number was 13.0 and the actual came in at a whopping 28.8. This number initially caused little reaction higher from the U.S. Dollar and then sluggishly the buyers came in to buoy the dollar to a 78.128.
The dollar has since been sent down sharply as it tests 78.00 psychological support - again. The morning’s low and support are waiting at 78.93 - 78.94. There is little reason to think that the dollar may not eventually test the 78.65 low set on September 28th as long as rate cuts are still being considered.
In the meanwhile, the USD/CAD and the AUD/USD continue to trend on the dollar weakness. USD/CAD has already reached parity as prices are currently trading 0.9735. The AUD/USD is trending higher at 0.9058 and while parity is still not a near term reality, there is are opportunities in both pairs for traders.
The USD/CAD pair continues to head lower as the Canadian Dollar strengthens versus the U.S. Dollar. 0.9700 is psychological support as 0.9699 and 0.9700 have been tested. Wedges can be traded as either a continuation trade (swing) or as trendline break reversal entries.
The AUD/USD continues to climb higher with and with 0.9000 broken and now support, today’s trading has brought a new high of 0.9078 just 22 pips shy of the 0.9100 level.
The U.S. Dollar is currently support by 78.00 on the daily chart but the downward pressure at each bounce is still a relevant concern for dollar bulls.
…automated chart pattern software courtesy of Autochartist. For a 21-day trial click here.