A quick update about a brand new tool — yes it’s free — that I wanted to share with you.  It’s the Autochartist U. Desktop Reader that sends lessons, videos, articles, and more directly to your desktop so you’re the first to get new updates from Autochartist U. 

If you like the updates here at the Chartology blog and the Chart Pattern Trading blogs, you’ll love the Reader…and if ya don’t you can always uninstall it.  Try it.  It’s cool and it’s free.

- Corey, Autochartist U.

Hello, I’m happy to be able to fill for Raghee in today.  She and I had a quick talk about holday trading just before she started her daily chat for raghee.com.

The thing on her mind was how to best handle trading during Novemeber and December.  Her advice was to look longer term - to "slow down the action" by looking at 240 minute and daily charts.

In fact she mentioned during her chat that she typically takes Novemember and December off and comes back after the New Year.  That would probably be best for most traders and investors.   Make some key decision about your holdings and positions and then take a longer, slower approach. 

Ofcourse this cannot be done on 15, 30, 60 minute charts.  This would have to be done with longer term intraday charts like the 240 minute and the daily.  So taking Raghee’s advice here are some "slower" charts that I will be watching this week.

There are quite a few set ups on the four hour charts and I like this because I have the perfect balance of intraday and end of day with this particular timeframe.  In fact I have set up a specific 240 minute interval scan on my Autochartist so that I can get alerts for this interval as they appear.

I won’t forget the daily charts either but just remember that the risk tolerance for daily is higher than a 240 which I why I prefer the 240.

The daily chart of the EUR/JPY is following through on the turn lower and is now looking at the 160.00 major level as the support here on a relatively quiet day is holding.  The remainder of the week will not be so quiet.  Today is the only day without big economic releases.

The USD/JPY is heading lower towards 108.00 again.  Prices did head below this key level but quickly found buyers.  The downtrend on the 240 is not as steep as the daily chart but the set up with the falling wedge does offer a number of potential entries depending upon what prices do from here.

The EUR/USD continues to climb higher and 1.5000 seems inevitable.  The level is dependant upon the continued U.S. Dollar weakness.  Support is at the lower uptrend line and 1.4750.

All charts used with permission from Autochartist chart pattern recognition and alert software.   

It’s not unusual to get mixed signals as prices rise to significant highs or lows.

Today is one of those days as the dollar has sold off from the bounce to 76.00 and has been — as expected — sold off and nearing prior support at 75.00. The dollar was able to stay above the "00" after attempts at 76.14 and 76.15.

The 74.97 low was set on November 9th.

The EUR/USD has pierced the 1.4800 to a high of 1.4814 but quickly sold off as the dollar found support at 75.22 - just two ticks from the "20" minor psychological level. Now trading below the 4800 level, the EUR/USD is pulling back slightly as there is no clear signal that the dollar is ready to tackle 75.50.

Interesting though is the break on the 30 minute chart of the EUR/USD. Prices has broke the uptrend line support of a rising wedge. This is an aggressive short entry with current support holding up prices at 1.4780.

The Dow has given the carry trades some reprieve this morning as the Dow is up +94 points an hour into the trading day. Prices have once again been pushed up through 13,000 but a look at the daily chart clearly shows that the Dow has a steep climb ahead to break the downtrend.

Why is the market up today? Crude is up +2.00 and XOM is up +3.10 along with it. Following suit, the dollar-yen found support at the 109.80 minor psychological number and has found buyers up through 110.00.

The 110.50 to 110.60 area will be watched closely for upside follow through in the USD/JPY as most intraday resistance is waiting there.

A couple other charts to look at while the dollar sits at 75.37 today, down -0.40 are the USD/CAD and USD/CHF.

The intrday 30 minute dollar-canada is trading within a symmetrical triangle with 0.9750 support to the downside and resistance at 0.9850.

The dollar-swissy is testing this morning support at 1.1067 with resistance at 1.1100 overhead — which if broken could trigger a break of the falling wedge pattern. (shown below)

All charts used with permission from Autochartist.

Maybe it’s Tryptophan, Turkey, and Thanksgiving but the markets are already acting like they’ve feasted on the big meal…

Then again it could be the range-bound dollar, lack of economic data today, and a weak Dow that’s got traders sitting on the sidelines.

The U.S. Dollar continues to find resistance at the 76.00 psychological level and prices are retreating quickly from any pierces through this key level.  The dollar has made a short term bottom but this market is far from a significant reversal or even uptrend for that matter and that’s what trader must keep in mind if expecting the bounce to follow through.

The dollar’s intraday chart are beginning to transition to sideways cycles as the holiday week will certainly be a week of less participation and lower volume.

The Dow Jones continues to trade lower this morning as the 13,000 support level looks close to being tested.

The USD/JPY is strengthening with the Dow down almost -170 points.

The USD/JPY is testing the 110.00 level - and this must be particularly disheartening to the carry trades as the 109.00 level was where the bounce began.  The current trend of the Dow suggests that there is likely to be strength only if buyers support 13,000 for a bounce and continuation up through the 13,250 level.

This weak Dow will continued to be watched closely by the carry trades as the current action is looking a lot like the USD/JPYsell off from early Summer.

The Dow is trading within a falling wedge pattern, keep an eye on the downtrend line resistance as this is what will be the first step to a bounce and reversal.

All charts used with permission from Autochartist.

The healthy bit of skepticism I have for the dollar’s move higher was well placed.  I still feel that the Canada/Crude connection is one that will be partly responsible for the potential bottom. With that in mind notice that the dollar still has not been able to test and trade above 76.00 — in fact today represents a lower high.

My main play yesterday was a swing buy off the top line of the Wave in crude oil.  But the rebound in crude wasn’t much help to the loonie as the support in the U.S. Dollar has pushed the dollar-canada up towards 0.9700 once again.

I’ll check in again tomorow…if you’re in Vegas be sure to stop by and say hello.

Talk is cheap but in this case, all the bullish talk about the U.S. Dollar has formed a neat term support level at the 75.00 psychological level.

Nothing has significantly changed between last week and today yet the dollar is poised to test 76.00 today - albeit in lower volume.

Every bounce in the dollar has been sold on strength and there’s little reason to think this bounce is an exception even with the talk of central bank intervention.

Fed Fund futures are still factoring a better than 60% chance of a December rate cut and the last week’s sell off in the stock market certainly stirred up more talk of rate cuts. Currently the Dow Jones has found buyers just above the key 13,000 level.

However, we must be ready if the 75.00 level does prove to be a bottom from which longer term support will be built upon.

Keep an eye on the 77.50 to 78.00 area as this is where a shift from weakness to strength will be made on the daily chart. Anything below the 77.50-78.00 level can be considered a correction and not a reversal.

Playing this bounce can allow USD/CHF, EUR/USD, and GBP/USD traders to play corrections.

The 76.00 level on the U.S. Dollar Index is primed for selling pressure and again, until there is a change in the dovish talk from Fed the selling pressure will return.

The upside target for the EUR/USD is 1.4700 if the 76.00 level proves to be too much for the dollar.

The USD/CHF set up could benefit from further strength or 76.00 dollar resistance.  The downtrend line resistance will be the decision level from an entry.

All charts presented with permission from Autochartist pattern recognition software.

(contributed by the Autochartist staff)

For anyone watching their Autochartist platform very early this morning there was a set up that alerted as the Asian session was closing for the day at 4:30am EST.

This continuation entry on the channel down pattern had two possible entries marked as "1" and "2"

"1" represents a reversal entry long IF prices break up through the downtrend line of the channel.  It also represents an ideal swing entry if prices bounce into the resistance of the downtrend line.  However this conservative entry is one that will not also develop as a actionable trade.

"2" is the entry that follows the trend

The patient trader will wait for the trade to come to them.

The patient trader was rewarded later into the day as the London markets were closing with a 15 minute triangle pattern alert.  This set up in essence allowed us to "zoom in" to the congestion that developed as prices reached the prediction region highlighted on the 30 minute chart.

Watching the downtrend line resistance aroun 0.9380 for breakout with positive MACD Histogram confirmation.

The downside to the entry? 0.9400 psychological resistance. This morning’s high is 0.9398.

I would be open to the 0.9350 break to the downside and grab that short if gold also weakens through 834.00. But with gold up 12-13 today it’s tough to want to step out in front of that surge.

Watching and waiting to see which direction momentum takes!