My buddie CVJ had some interesting thoughts about tomorrow’s Non-Farm Payroll and I thought I would share them here at the Chartology blog:
With such massive activity in the low-yielding currencies of the Dollar and the Yen…we certainly have an emotionally heavy Marketplace !
Risk Aversion takes place when the unwinding…decoupling…and non-correlating aspects of "Fear" makes its’ presence known.
The high-yielding high interest rate pairs begin to look for "safe haven", and repatriate into lower-yielding units like the Dollar and the Yen.
Risk Appetite is the opposite of this phenomenon….when we see repatriation into the high-yielders, with the " Hollywood Star of the Show" being the Carry Trade concept.
The ECB and BoE hold rates…my efficient and effective friend, Jean-Claude Trichet, is rather muted in his ECB Commentary…the massive 3% falloff in Equities and the Dow….Crude still pulling back….do I need to go on?
This paradigm shift is enough to make your puppy understand the concept of being "averse" to something…….
Seriously….where does this leave us ahead of the most volatile Data flashpoint in Foreign Exchange…..the Non-Farm Payroll Report ?
As a Trader, I am choosing to not participate. I have nothing against NFP, or News Trading work for that matter…that is not the relevant question.
I do follow the NFP each month and really study Fundamentals and the "numbers inside the numbers"….I simply choose to never taken positions.
I choose not to…simply because my trading style and comfort zone simply does not compliment it. If I have maintained logical and sound positions in the first place…the volatility of NFP does not tempt me and it is not needed.
…And here lies the Lesson…….no technical reasons and complex Fractal analysis…no lack of Fibonacci confluence or charting patterns…..I simply pick and choose my "battles".
That’s it…..no mystery.
NFP is…to me…a "battle" I have already won before engagement.
Every Trader is unique and different…. and it is our psychological levels of comfort that make us so in how we approach this business….
Thank you once again for sharing your ideas my friend!
- Raghee
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