Inside technicals and chart patterns by 
The timing for this particular post is good since Friday the price action on the USD/CAD pushed below the bottom line of the Wave.
Here’s where a failed swing meets the opportunity to be a trend reversal. Now think about WHY the swing was merited in the first place. The trade sets up because the trend was 12 to 2. The trigger is when price touched the support of the Wave itself. Now it’s valid as long as 1) the trend is in place and 2) prices stay above the bottom line of the Wave.
The trend reversal which is most often set up by a failed swing is a short as prices break the bottom line of the Wave with at least a -100 reading on the CCI. I call it the Wave/CCI set up, or Wave reversal set up.
Secondarily we must consider both the U.S. Dollar and the crude oil market.
This bounce is crude oil strengthened the Canadian Dollar and weakened the U.S. Dollar resulting in the deeper pullback. The break of support requires more crude strength and greenback weakness. I am looking to short crude oil as it trades into 107.50-108.00.
Currently the USD/CAD is resting on Lazy Days support at the 55ema.
- Raghee