The trend is down on the 15, 30, and 60 minute charts and it on the weak side of the Wave across the 180, 240, and daily as well.

The play is to capitalize on what could be an active Friday Asian session and a possible bounce off the 0.6500 psychological level.  But there are a lot of “ifs” in this aussie swing short set up.  The trigger is the bottom line of the Wave.

Right now the AUD/USD is trading at 0.6495.

Take a look at the triangle pattern on the chart.  First things first though.  The triangle is occurring in a downtrend so that make’s it an invalid trade set up BUT there is the “pieces” of the pattern available to us.  This means that instead of playing a breakout/breakdown set up as would normally be the case with a triangle, look at the resistance of the downtrend line (and the Wave!) and the support of the double bottom.

The weakness in the EUR/USD has corrected to the bottom line of the Wave setting up a swing short…this is a valid set up just as long as the market cycle remains down.

The chart pattern on the daily backs this set up nicely…while there is a short ready at the bottom line of the Wave now, the weakness can be shorted all the way up the the downtrend resistance line of the down channel.

Keep it simple.

Join me there.

Thanks to the many of you who have emailed me…at this point my Inbox may explode…enter Facebook.  I’ll be using Facebook more as support for the chats and the blog.

I’m working on a Chartbook I’ll be adding to there.  Here’s a sample of an opening range chart from this morning’s London session that I shared with my buddie Aaron at Facebook.

The set ups are coming quickly across multiple time frames on the USD/JPY.  Chart patterns are pointing to a breakout.

The 30 minute chart has a forecast region that begins just below the 90.00 major psychological level.

The momentum on the 30 is carrying through to the 240 minute chart as the down channel is poised to break the downtrend line resistance and here’s where is gets interesting:

Patiently waiting just above the intraday chart breakouts is the daily chart swing short which would trigger between 89.95 (”step out in front of size”) and 90.20 (minor psychological level and Wave low).

So short term I’m bullish, especially with the Dow up 160 this morning.  Longer term I am bearish unless or until price get north of 91.80 to 92.05.

Download a trial of Autochartist and get the “GRaB’ chart plug for MT4

“Grab” charts are a visual cue to let you know at a glance whether prices are trading within, above, or below the Wave.  It works on the MT4 platform and as far as I can tell any version of the MT4 platform.  This is nothing more than the same color coding that has been a part of my eSignal plug for about seven years.  it’s not a system or anything like that…let me be clear about that…although certainly there are system ideas that could be devised from price movement up and down through my Wave.  You read about what I do with “grab charts” here. There are plenty of visual cues that can be picked up from where prices are in relation to the dynamic support and resistance of the Wave.

I’m not customer support and I’m certainly no MT4 expert so if you need to know how to use indicators on your MT4, check the help and support docs.  After unzipping the file, I put the “Raghee’s Indicator.mq4″ in the “indicators” folder.  You can find this if you go into you C: drive –> Program Files –> MetaTrader (or whatever version of MT4 you are using is called) –> experts –> indicators

download ex4

download mq4

(click to enlarge the chart)

Thanks to Mistigri.net for the MT4 programming.

I usually don’t trade off short term time frames but now and again, especially when the pairs are trending strongly up or down, the best way to capitalize on corrections will often be the 15 minute time frame.

And that’s not to say that momentum set ups aren’t effective on th 15 minute, they are!  In fact when the 30 or 60 minute doesn’t give me a consolidation/congestion cycles, it’s the 15 minute that will be the time frame that is the only way to enter the breakout/breakdown.

I usually feel that 15 minute charts are aggressive in momentum and swing entries because they are the alerts that will show up first…and that’s both the strength and weakness of the short term.  You may be getting in with the only opportunity or you may be getting in too soon ot too aggressively.

The key is to know this!

Here are some great 15 minute set ups from Autochartist:

This is a set up that has already followed through but the reason I think it will be one to wath is because it’s trading inside the forecast region which will be resistance.  If this time frame begins to pull back, there could be some corrective opportunites on the 30 ro 60.

I love this look because in any trending set up there are three possible entries and two that I look for in particular.  First and this is should be the first consideration, is the trend follow.  Look for weakness and selling pressure at the downtrend line resistance line (green).  The other consideration will be a breakout through the green line as a trend reversal.

The aussie is setting up a similar set up to the canada.  Instead it’s an uptrend and the support line (blue) is where buying support would be expected to step in.

Crude has rebounded this morning BUT not before it sold off early as the Asian/European overlap ended.

The push down to 33.00 was not long lived as traders rallied the market up from that major psychological number.  Crude has been moving and is dependable to react to the “00″ as has been the case on the climb up and now on the $100-plus sell off.

While prices have once again found some footing north of 34.00 the U.S. Dollat Index and the USD/CAD have reacted to the morning’s bearishness.

The U.S. Dollar is currently trading above 86.00.  Inauguration euphoria?  Likely no.  Europe and the U.K. continue to have a flood of bad news and data and the U.S. Dollar is simply rallying on it.

The dollar-canada is on the strong side of the Wave on all my timeframes and the uptrend is great…but only if you are already long right?  Well, I have already scaled out of my initial entry and I am looking for a way back in.  In this  uptrending market, I will wait for a swing buy.

The rising wedge chart pattern alert is confirmation of my thinking and the support of the lower uptrend line (blue) set up my chance.  

Here’s my visual confirmation of the 60 minute’s uptrend and support using my Wave.

The uptrend is valid as long as 1) the clock angle is twelve to two and 2) prices remain above the botom line of the Wave (34ema low).

This is “Chartology” and I’ve always felt the best way to find and manage trades is based on price charts.  So let’s dissect the EUR/USD aka the fiber and look at what it’s likely to do next and what price points worth watching.

The EUR/USD has been selling off as the U.S. Dollar Index has been steadily climbing through two key resistance levels:  the 84.00 and 84.20 psychological levels.  Next to watch for the greenback is the 84.50 to 84.63 area.

The fiber has broken down through the 3200 level and not found any push of buyers to get it back over this once strong support level.  The break down has accelerated over the past three trading sessions and today brings to first stall — the candle could result in a doji (pause) candle — in the sell off.  This weakness in this market is going to key off the U.S. Dollar strength as the flight to quality continues…

The .786 Fibonacci level is waiting near the minor psychological 3020 level.  Today’s low is 3094 as there was a brief pierce of 3100 but buyers we’re ready and eager to support this “00″.

So what are the set ups?  When the market is trending, as the intraday 180 and 240 minute EUR/USD are, the best play is the the “trend follow” or swing on corrections (bounces) while the downtrend is intact.

There was a swing short opportunity this morning on the 180 minute chart. This is one of the five time frames that I track along with the 30, 60, 240, and daily.

Here’s a look at the 240 with Autochartist:

The trending market confirms the channel down pattern on the 240 minute chart and so trend follow plays would be shorts off the resistance (green) downtrend line.  But this chart as well as the 180 minute above also allow me to be ready for reversal of the trend.  On the 180 I will look for a break above 3420 and on the 240 channel down pattern, I will look for a break above 3560.