We looked at the daily canada in the last update…but the key to the upside follow-through could be the intraday time frames like the 30 and 60 minute charts.

I’m still watching the downtrend line on the daily time frame for follow-through from the pierce of the downtrend line.  This broke the triangle.  But as price pulls back, it’s not as if the daily trigger is no longer valid, it’s simply wandering in the “no man’s land” of a trade that is not yet following through.  Intrday charts can often set up while this is happening.  Case in point, the downtrend line on the 60 minute.  A breakout here could potentially lead to the upward momentum that the daily needs.

Don’t be afraid to play mutilple time frames of the same pair.  They will have their own nuances and should be traded on their own merit - often you will see that the key to the larger time frames moving will be the “building blocks” of the shorter time frames.

The triangle pattern on the dollar-canada on the daily chart caught my eye as I was trading crude oil today…I trade one, I always think of the other…

The triple top that has contained the rallies.  The triangle pattern has broken out although the follow through isn’t there yet.  Remember the triple top that is waiting.

The pattern is setting up — as it should idealy be — within a sideways market cycle.

It’s always nice and fun and needed to play out different scenarios on the chart.  A bottom on the EUR/USD is one that while cetianly can be possible is simply not a reality when you look at current price action.

I am not as impressed with the U.S. Dollar Index running up through 88.00 where is was sold off swiftly starting early in yesterday’s Asian session and accelerated in the European/U.K. overlap.  I am am impressed with the support at 87.00.  Remember higher highs in an uptrend are important to the psychology of attracting buyers but it’s the support — the higher lows — that are the backbone of the move.

That means the bigger picture downside targets in the EUR/USD are likely alive and well, as is the dollar safe haven play.

There’s a lot to think here but it all works together and that’s the way the forex market works.

I am going to look at current levels in crude oil using the USO symbol, intraday support int the fiber, and what this all means to the safe haven play in the dollar.

The intraday EUR/USD has reached and bounced off a 30 minute forecast region.

The supprt on the 30 minute chart sits between 1.2730 and 1.2710.  The channel down pattern is a trending pattern so the forecast/support cannot be taken as a reversal but rather jsut a bounce.  An intraday reversal would come if prices can get north of 1.2865.

The USO (United States Oil Fund) is hovering just above support which is waiting between 25.18 and 22.93.

If oil begins to attract buyers at this low price, if traders feel it is “oversold” this will all culminated toa rally back at the key $40 decade level.  In turn it will put pressure on the dollar.  While the dolllar might be enjoying safe haven status, it’s looking awfully tippy up here above 86.00 and has not been able to get footing above 86.50, a major psychologicla level.

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The downtrend that has initiated from the breakdown has formed 1) a four to six o’clock mark down cycle and 2) an opportunity to set up swing shorts within a down channel.

The downtrend is best capitalized on shorter term, intraday charts right now as the longer term trend (daily chart) is sideways.  Follow-through in this environment of uncertainty is difficult to come by on longer term intraday (180 or 240 minte) charts.

Look for short triggers between 4435 and 4450 on the 30 minute chart.  The downtrend will be intact on the this time frame until the cycle flattens (keep an eye on the Wave!) or price find their way north of 4500.

The set up here is a short term (15 min) chart pattern.  Bear flags are upward angling, short channels.  The trigger for the short occurs when the uptrend line support is broken.  These patterns can set up in both an accumulation or distribution cycle; this is occurring in the distribution.  The trigger for a flag is always in the opposite direction of the angle.  Bear flags angle up while bull flags angle down.

I feel like I have been writing a lot bearish analysis for the EUR/USD…I call ‘em like I see ‘em and until the downtrend is broken I don’t see any reason to be a bull.  Price action alone will justify that stance. in the meanwhile, I am keeping  an eye on the Wave resistance and just as a point of interest, for you trades that like candlestick patterns, a bearish harami that completed Feb. 5th.

So here’s the chart that has me thinking that perhaps the shift back to the downside is happening.  This is an “outside the box” way to look at chart patterns, trade follow-through, and Autochartist alerts.

The 60 minute chart has broken the resistance of the rising wedge pattern and while this is a “classic” breakout trigger for this pattern it is not necessarily the best way to trade a trending pattern.  (Trending patterns are best set up to capitalize on trend follows and reversals.)

What I do get from this alert (and I will use Autochartist alerts like this) is an indication of potential reversals/support/resistance is that the follow through has reached a target and that this target is resistance and could signal weakness.  Follow? It’s not a short signal but a potential short term shift in sentiment that aligns with the overall trend in the EUR/USD.

The daily chart is trading at the resistance I am looking to short from between 3050 and 3070.  And the 60 minute rising wedge forecase region confirms the ceiling there as well.

Let’s look at the daily chart with the GRaB candles and you’ll see there is just one more hurdle before a more conservative buy is triggered and that’s the top line of the Wave at 6740.

The dollar-canada is congesting as crude oil bounces along $40/barrel.

The market cycle is sideways (aka three o’clock) and the eventual breakout from the triangle — as long as the market cycle stays sideways — is inevitable as all triangle patterns are “self limiting”.  While there is s slight bearish bias point to a downside break, this pattern can be expected to move up or down.  However the bearish move seems — at least for right now — to make the most sense as the dollar is having issues with staying above 86.00 and the $40 level on crude is strong.

With uptrend line support at 89.40 there is the opportunity for a reversal (short) however since there is a weak uptrend on the time frame, play the trend follow until the uptrend line is broken.  The risk is minimal if the entry is triggered by the support line since a break below will make the buy invalid.