Inside technicals and chart patterns by 
This morning I was watching a breakout on the 15 and 30 minute charts and was not really happy with the breakout set ups I saw…the 15 minute’s chart was ok: decent flat Wave, good downtrend line break. It was all a moot point because the trigger happened before I was awake so I saw the follow through as it rallied toward the “00″ of 1.3500.
Sometime that’s the way it goes…a 24 hour markets means you’re going to miss some trade! No worries though because the set up I was after was what the breakout was taking prices to…a swing short off the 3500 to 3520 levels on the 60 and 240 minute charts.
The daily pivot at .3533 is likely to be helpful as a ceiling if prices get up beyond the 3520 minor psychological level. In the meanwhile, the bigger battle will be the 3500 as that level is still holding up as support.
I have a video I’ll share here in a bit that walks you through the set ups I’ve described here.
what do you think of the eurusd now that it has touched 1.3545. With equities up, it looks like heading towards testing 1.3738 March high. But any technical analysis devoid of fundamentals may not be sound. what would you suggest in terms of going long or short or remaining away from the pair?
Thanks for the comment. Here’s my two cents:
A few things to consider…
First, any upside target has to be considered within the support and resistance of this time frame. So since the EUR/USD hasn’t broken the resistance of 3600 I think any talk of 3700 is premature…I look to tackle one support or resistance level at a time.
Second, price action after Noon EST tends to wander since the volume is marked less. (see PowerStats Basic at Autochartist.com)
There’s also some alternate views you can consider to follow the uptrend — which I always want to keep in mind regardless of my current position — is the 15 min swing buy along the 12 to 2 o’clock Wave on that chart.
I only consider equities when trading the USD/JPY. I look to the U.S. Dollar Index (traded on the ICE) when trading the EUR/USD. The lower lows on the DX contract are what’s pushing the EUR/USD higher.
Back to the 240 min. I am looking to the daily pivot for some help by way of downside pressure, but the P.O.V. (point of validity and initial risk-based stop) is the top line of my Wave plus five pips.
Thanks for your question Yogesh!
p.s. I think ALL news/fundamentals are built into price…reacting to fundamentals as they are “known” will typically mean that the reactions is too late.
Dear Raghee,
Thnx 4 the reply.
How do u see the eurusd price movt from here today. M a retail trader based in middle east (oman) with little knowledge abwt technicals etc. with predictions of a 1.29 in a month, m short currently on eurusd since 1.3515. i have a stop at 1.3740. wud u see the eurusd hitting the 1.3740 barrier near term as I felt u were not overly bullish on it. since its reacting to the risk-on/off theme realted to equities, I feel the indices r overstretched in any case.
Looking forward to ur response
Once the 240 min swing stopped me out, the next logical place to look was the 15 and 30 min swings to follow the trend…I think I mentioned the 15 in my first reply and that trade was the next valid trade to consider as the market transitioned to the uptrend. The market cycle dictates everything…
I think we all have a price level that we feel prices could eventually get to…the trick is to make sure you are trading off the right time frame to get there. So for example, farther out expectations would require a longer time frame (think: 240 or daily) while near term expectations could be traded off at 15, 30, 60.
The time frame will dictate your stop loss and will impact the way price action is absorbed. Think of it this way: A data release on a 15 or 30 minute chart can be volatile but hardly appear as much more than normal pip range on a 180, 240, or daily. The longer time frames will allow you to follow a trend longer because it can absorb pullbacks and bounces and those very pullbacks and bounces can be trades on the short term time frames.
If you are curious about my outlook for a particular pair it’s going to be determined by the time frame. My “bullishness” or “bearishness” will also be decided on an individual basis since each time frame can have a different market cycle reading.
i am reading this thread on may 28th 2009 at 5 pm central time. i only see if’s and but’s in the replies. EURUSD is at 1.3941 this very instance. all ‘forex experts’ present their so-called ‘technical analysis’, and honestly, if anybody analysis comes true it is just coincidence or chance. you need to be a foreteller (or god) to say with confidence where a forex pair will move. i think if at all there is any factor that determines the move it could possibly be the economic calender. all those tools meant for performing ‘technical analysis’ are useless. you could justify the past graph trends but never can you say with some accuracy what will happen in future.