With the focus still on the 240 minute chart we’ve been examing all week, let’s look at the follow through from the momentum play. So to sum up, there was initially swing short opportunity that stopped out as the market cycle transitioned to a three o’clock making the strategy of shorting bounces (swing trading) no longer valid. Then the focus shifted to the momentum (momo) play of yesterday which did break to the upside and was confirmed by the positive MACD Histogram. The follow through went to 97.24 and that means that the 97.00 level (major psychological number) was hit and had to have been seen as potential profit targets. For that matter so could have 96.00.
Now the market cycle has shifted again as the momentum of the breakout has formed an uptrend. Remember this analysis is specific to this time frame. If I were — for example — looking at the 15 minute chart, you would see it’s in a downtrending market cycle. If fact it’s the weakness on the 15 minute chart that “builds” the pullback or correction on the 240.
We’re back in swing mode and curently the pullback to the Wave is a swing entry long which initially triggered at 95.93. I’m not happy that prices dipped below the “00″ of 96.00 nor that the entry was below it because now 96.00 is a obstacle to the upside.
The easiest (and best!) way to handle this entry scenario is to wait for prices to pop back over the “00″ so even though the pullback triggers the correction and the entry, it would be best to watch and wait for prices to rally back over 96.00, preferably, 96.05 and buy it then.
If not, it’s Friday, so leave this one alone. Another market cycle will come along and with it another set up…
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