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Inside technicals and chart patterns by Raghee Horner, trader/author at Ragheehorner.com, Chief Currency Analyst at InterbankFX, and Autochartist Chief Market Analyst.

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AUD/USD Reaching a Ceiling?

Posted on July 29, 2009 at 19:50 in Chart patterns, Price actions by Raghee Horner

There’s little use in picking tops (or bottoms) however when a ceiling or floor is starting you in the face it’s at least time to consider what could happen if prices are rejected from that level.

The daily AUD/USD is one such example. The current trend is still slightly up but not the strong uptrend is has been since March.  This is a time that most the of the chart patterns on the daily will be trending patterns and the support of those patterns will be the decision levels to watch.

Take the daily Channel Up pattern on the AUD/USD.  This pattern is still intact and valid but it’s the potential reversal of this pattern that looks to be the more likely scenario…or at least one worth examining.

The pattern shows the ceiling within the current formation and while the uptrend line support (blue) is still a good deal away from current price action there is the reversal set up that will be there and worth keeping an eye on:

But to take advantage of the current resistance, take a look at the breakdown we’ve already seen:

Note that this was an alert that came at the Frankfurt (2am EST) open today.

The follow through lower form the then sideways market cycle has formed a mark down cycle and now the current set up would be a swing short off resistance if we see an upside correction.

Here’s a current view of the 15 minute chart and the downward angling Wave off which the swing short can be set up.

The bottom line of the Wave is at .8159.  now since it is triggering during the doldrum hours the best thing to do — rather than take this aggro set up — would be to wait for a higher bounce to the bottom line of the Wave on the 30 or 60 minute chart.  That would be a short trigger at either .8176 or .8194 respectively.

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