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Inside technicals and chart patterns by Raghee Horner, trader/author at Ragheehorner.com, Chief Currency Analyst at InterbankFX, and Autochartist Chief Market Analyst.

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USD/CAD Following the Uptrend

Posted on August 11, 2009 at 20:11 in Chart patterns, Price actions by Raghee Horner

Playing trends when you have a pattern alert like the wedge or channel makes for pretty straight-forward decision levels.  Basically I’ve got uptrend line support (blue) and downtrending line resistance (red) off which I can gauge corrections and breakouts.

Anyone following my thinking on trends knows that I would much rather play a buy in an uptrend off a correction so that means focusing on the uptrend line support of the rising wedge and/or the 34ema high which is the top line of my Wave.

Here the uptrend is sitting on the lower line (support) of the wedge with excellent confirmation that this line is indeed support.  This offers a more aggressive entry long for the buy, a swing buy.  The lower chart of MT4 shows where the Wave and Fibonacci retracement levels are waiting.  I typically do not like the shallow 23.6/25% Fibo levels and would prefer to see a deeper correction like a 38.2.  The top line of the Wave (34ema high) is sitting in between these levels and would offer an excellent opportunity to get long with a more conservative entry.

Neither is right or wrong.  Instead think of the choice being between aggressive and conservative.  Aggressive traders will be more willing and emotionally wired to take the risk of an earlier and more shallow corrective buy entry while conservative traders may miss the trade altogether unless the pullback is deeper but the risk is less and on the bounce the reward is greater.

One thing to note and this can be seen on both charts and that is the short term consolidation we’re seeing here.  This is a short term time frame that is smack dab in the middle of the NYC afternoon doldrums and certainly some of the consolidation is effecting the short term strength of the trend, but heads up (!) this could signal some weakness, which means a deeper downside and maybe even a reversal.

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